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[College Football] Topic: Friday games....... |
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bookieassassin |
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#1 Posted: 8/31/2012 11:28:08 AM
Friday, August 31
Tennessee at NC State, 7:30 PM at Ga Dome (ESPN U)
UT > 9/10 + QB + 5/5 OL (105) + 5/7
NCSt > 7/6 + QB + 4/5 OL (112) + 2/7
Vols need a win bad here..but Pack matches up well...and HC O'Brien great
in this spot (15-7 ATS as RD...29-14 overall...7-0 at a neutral site)...Vols weak running game and stopping run....but playing tougher schedule
Pack with excellent pass D...solid running game game and run D...and can bring heat (38 sacks LY)
Pack QB Glennon not too far behind Vol QB Bray (63% / 3054 Yds / 31/12)
*strong lean NC St +3'.....lean UNDER (I bet NCSt much earlier +7)
Boise State at Michigan State, 8:00 PM (ESPN)
BSU > 4/2 + 2/5 OL (56) + 0/7
MSU > 5/8 + 4/5 OL (74) + 5/7
Looks like a great spot for Boise to "finally" get spanked...Spartans lose QB too but return one of nation's best D's...
and
a 240 lb TB running behind a very good OL...Boise probably will be
better than they 'should' be...lost a ton yes (including OC...ST and DB
coach)...but have 25 Sr's...and 9 OL guys that have started...a talented
6th yr Sr RB in Harper...and a solid secondary...key maybe is the zero
returning starters in the def front 7...tho Boise rotates a lot...so
several have played a lot
Broncos have covered 22 of their last 28 away....and are 5 points away
from being 50-0 SU...Spartans on 9-2 ATS run themselves and only have C
Mich on deck
*stay away for me (Peterson ain't taking any more of my cash)...but looks like MSU should roll...slight lean OVER...(Broncos can manufacture points better than anyone).....anyone surprised if this one is close?
San Jose St at Stanford, 10:00 PM
SJSU > 6/5 + 2/5 OL (66) + 3/7
SU > 6/7 + 3/5 OL (65) + 6/7
Spartans
can't run or stop run and should get MAULED here...as Tree is deep at
RB and OL....(D looks really tough..LB Skov is out week 1 tho)....LY
Stanford had their worst offensive game of the year vs SJSU.....and
still won 57-3
Tree has covered 8 of last 9 vs SJSU by an av score of 42-10....but SJSU looks improved and is on a 10-4 ATS run
*strong lean to Tree....total looks about right...losing a transcendent talent like Luck makes this one a no play for me
these games I usually look for in-game or halftime wagers.......
*Boise a tremendous quick starter on the road...no shocker if they jump out to an early lead > Spartans should come back......Boise if down...may stay down
*Vols or the Pack should come back and keep it close if either down big....esp Tennessee which is a likely scenario
*Since Stanford should control the LOS...they should come back...or hold a lead if up (no shocker if SJSU jumps out to early lead)......
BOL boys.........
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nc1capper |
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#2 Posted: 8/31/2012 11:32:16 AM |
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Slaughter3 |
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#3 Posted: 8/31/2012 11:37:01 AM Vols by 2 touchdowns tonight. The loss of Rogers hurts but Tennessee is deep at receiver. Should also be much improved this year running the ball because of rb coach Jay Graham. |
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nc1capper |
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#4 Posted: 8/31/2012 11:48:05 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Slaughter3: Vols by 2 touchdowns tonight. The loss of Rogers hurts but Tennessee is deep at receiver. Should also be much improved this year running the ball because of rb coach Jay Graham. A prospect from tennessee calling for the vols to win by 2 TDs,,,classic covers stuff,,,oh btw,,welcome to covers Slaughter |
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Slaughter3 |
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#5 Posted: 8/31/2012 11:51:48 AM |
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bookieassassin |
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#6 Posted: 8/31/2012 12:16:27 PM
This game.....(SHOULD)....be a 35-13 type game....Broncos ..should.. struggle to get that many
Reason why they most likely are able to score more?
Peterson is not necessarily smarter than everybody else....but more willing to ADAPT....and do whatever is necessary....he is not tied to any particular "philosophy"....like most every other coach
If you watched the BYU/Wazzu game last nite....
you saw Leach (one of the best offensive minds in CFB history)......continue to try the same garbage....the ENTIRE game....OL with adequate protection...but receivers could NOT get open...if they did ....QB (rattled and beat to hell) could not find them...
*WHERE......was the PLAN B?....Leach didn't have one.....as he was confident....his plan would eventually work
In his early days at Tech.....he used motion and/or shifts on EVERY play....all quick/crossing (pick) routes......
*that didn't need much time to develop.....and made the D THINK....taking away their athletic edge
Peterson will not just show up and take his behind whipping like a man....like so many do.......
WHY?
*expect Boise to run about 100 different plays.....each from a different look.....each with motion or multiple shifts...looking for how Spartans adjust.....and a potential weakness...
*D will do the same....recall how they dominated Georgia in the trenches LY (6 sacks > zero for Ga) despite a large size disadvantage
In the end it may not be enough...but no doubt Boise will try everything they can
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bookieassassin |
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#7 Posted: 8/31/2012 12:25:29 PM
yeah for some all this is just too easy....
The Vols...with like 7 new coaches.....including DC who left for ....greener pastures > Washington?
*meaning they obviously did not like what the future appeared to hold ....
Last time we saw them they were losing to KENTUCKY?.....with WR playing QB ......wtf?
and POOF!.....they will dominate here!
*the point....is sure they might .....but why GUESS...let them first whip the Pack (a tough dog) to show us they're back
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DoubleUp4Life |
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#8 Posted: 8/31/2012 12:36:05 PM Hoping Boise st can score 21+ tonight
Love the VOLS ... NC St will wilt vs a SEC Foe |
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Slaughter3 |
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#9 Posted: 8/31/2012 12:44:02 PM |
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bookieassassin |
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#10 Posted: 8/31/2012 12:50:59 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life: BOL Brother Hoping Boise st can score 21+ tonight
Love the VOLS ... NC St will wilt vs a SEC Foe
BOL man..........
glad to see you back.....although I did sleep a little better knowing yet another black man was locked up....probably without just cause...or due process...............................BTW agree not all that funny
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bookieassassin |
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#11 Posted: 8/31/2012 12:56:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Slaughter3:
Yeah 7 new coaches. Unfortunately for NC State we upgraded each one. Dooley and Hart ran off most of them. Yeah Bray with a broke hand and a team that didn't really care about the game lost to Kentucky, so what? 18 returning starters, Sunseri is gonna turn the defense loose and NC State won't know what hit them.
EACH coach an upgrade?.........
*always best to put the POM-POMS down before you handicap a game there Slaughterman...
but the Capper is correct....that is the Covers way.....> currently if you hang out here and actually make money (consistently)....it is IN SPITE of Covers...not because of Covers help .........
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14daroad |
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#12 Posted: 8/31/2012 1:07:35 PM Six consecutive losses in the last six games played in the Georgia Dome for the Vols.
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Trademark79 |
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#13 Posted: 8/31/2012 1:15:24 PM
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tiasman |
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#14 Posted: 8/31/2012 1:25:55 PM |
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bookieassassin |
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#15 Posted: 8/31/2012 2:01:23 PM
I would take Michigan St -6'
Way too often it seems we have seen Boise look over matched...with this ONE game defining their season (essentially)......and their opponent with bigger things on their mind > SEC title....Big 10 title whatever
*so no way would I bet against them ....AGAIN in this same type spot
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ApocalypseLater |
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#16 Posted: 8/31/2012 2:03:05 PM
actually, getting 7 points on that early number gives Bookie a chance, but i don't think 7 is enough, personally...
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Maddog1987 |
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#17 Posted: 8/31/2012 3:27:30 PM Bookie, please help me out. I read your analysis for the games yesterday and the games tonight in this thread.
Do you mainly provide just leans or do you actually bet your leans?
Thanks
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ApocalypseLater |
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#18 Posted: 8/31/2012 4:18:32 PM
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ApocalypseLater |
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#19 Posted: 8/31/2012 4:21:23 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
Way too often it seems we have seen Boise look over matched...with this ONE game defining their season (essentially)......and their opponent with bigger things on their mind > SEC title....Big 10 title whatever
*so no way would I bet against them ....AGAIN in this same type spot
i keep seeing this argument as the reason not to bet against Boise, but i don't find it to be a valid argument... i have always bet on Boise in these spots, and usually it is one of my biggest bets of the week... last year against UGA it was my best bet of the weekend...
but i didn't bet on Boise in those spots because "you just shouldn't bet against them"... i bet on them because i expected them to be the better football team in those situations...
tonight, i don't! they are the inferior football team tonight, and i am betting against them... and none of their games over the previous 8 years have anything to do with the game tonight, from my perspective...
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Johnnynumbers |
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#20 Posted: 8/31/2012 5:19:15 PM  |
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bookieassassin |
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#21 Posted: 8/31/2012 6:36:55 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Maddog1987: Bookie, please help me out. I read your analysis for the games yesterday and the games tonight in this thread.
Do you mainly provide just leans or do you actually bet your leans?
Thanks
I break em down and give recommendations....given the CURRENT line....which means very few actual (one unit or more) plays.....especially since I bet em when I get the line I want...> I liked NC St at 7.....but not that much at 3 or so..... so a play is now a lean... *with 50 or so games....I might play 10 or so in some form or another...but might only RECOMMEND 3-7 or so
some I do have
small >
EMich ML loser
Tx St + 37
Kentucky +14
NC St +7 (-120)
Nebraska -14 (-120).....5 Dimes early stuff
bigger >
Iowa St ML
Penn St -6
Ohio St -22'
OU -30
Clemson -3
Troy -5
top plays>
Cal -11
Texas -29
Ga Tech +7'
biggest bets will be in-game stuff.....and the occasional open parlay.....like this >
1) Cal ML + Washington ML + Nebraska ML +UCLA ML.....leaving 1 open....risking a dime to win one back give or take
*if Boise is UP at the half.....and being the best 1st half road team in CFB history (maybe).....a distinct possibility.....I will (probably) close out the above parlay with Michigan St ML.....for the 2H......not point spread......but just for them to WIN the 2H SU .....
$$ I have won a buttload of cash this way $$
if I don't love it.....I might start another much smaller open parlay.....with Spartans minus whatever
BOL........
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tiasman |
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#22 Posted: 8/31/2012 6:40:51 PM |
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bookieassassin |
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#23 Posted: 8/31/2012 6:50:32 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:
i keep seeing this argument as the reason not to bet against Boise, but i don't find it to be a valid argument... i have always bet on Boise in these spots, and usually it is one of my biggest bets of the week... last year against UGA it was my best bet of the weekend...
but i didn't bet on Boise in those spots because "you just shouldn't bet against them"... i bet on them because i expected them to be the better football team in those situations...
tonight, i don't! they are the inferior football team tonight, and i am betting against them... and none of their games over the previous 8 years have anything to do with the game tonight, from my perspective...
yeah I used to go against them all the time .....when it (appeared) they were physically over-matched....
OU -7....Ducks +3.....Hokies ....and still wasn't convinced to lay the 3 vs Georgia (liked em but thought that was just poor value kinda .... )
If Cousins returned I would take Sparty....I'll maybe go against Boise next week ....off a very physical game here........laying way too many to Miami ......with BYU in 5 days
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RJSizzle |
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#24 Posted: 8/31/2012 6:57:16 PM
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Maddog1987 |
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#25 Posted: 8/31/2012 7:00:30 PM I appreciate your explaination very much. I hope I didn't cost you too much time writing a very good description of how you process everything.
Thanks and good luck |
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