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Author: [College Football] Topic: Duke over 4 season Wins +120
bigvern1013 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Orleans Hotel and Casino |
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#1
Posted: 8/22/2012 12:12:36 PM

Placed the bet a few days back. Duke over 4 wins +120....granted Duke has a tradition of garbage, but this one looks good to me.

Duke is one of my ATS sleepers this season. Here is why:

The obvious info is 8 returners on O and 9 on D....all info from Phil Steele mag.

Renfree is a 4th year senior QB, and by Febuary his name will be mentioned often in NFL draft war rooms. 6-5 230 and tutored by Cutcliff for 4 seasons....probably end up a late first or early 2nd round pick.

4 returners on o-line, 3 upper classmen.....that lends itself to a positive matchup vs smaller speed oriented d-lines or defenses that need to blitz to get pressure.

The defense has 9 starters back, but with an overall 4.9 ypc allowed, we can argue if that is a good thing. The teams that ran them over last season were Stanford, FSU, Vtech, Miami Fl, Gtech, UNC. Everyone else they held in check...although FIU did put up 4.3 ypc on them. 6 of Defensive Front 7 are back this season, with only 2 seniors in that group...this unit should be substantially improved this year.

It is tough to call an entire season before week one because things change so much from week to week (and even moreso when we are talking about teams that lack championship caliber depth). But, here it goes:

FIU young QB for FIU should let Duke load up vs run W

@ Stanford tough road trip to the west coast, but Stanford wont be the same squad that we are used too.....could be close L

NC Central teams like Duke NEED these games.....W

Memphis new coach for Memphis and struggling D W

@ Wake these Wake/Duke matchups are very close and depend on TO's.....this could be a good spot to grab some pts ....close, for the sake of arguement, TOSS UP

Virginia UVA was very fortunate last season with 4 close wins. Good luck handicapping this one, it is a tossup. TOSS UP

@VTech Duke will be getting a boatload of pts in this one, and they will need them all. DD L

UNC  Dukies will be catching more pts here....I like Fedora the new HC for UNC, but that defense should be a bit weaker than it has been. Need to catch DD's here, possible upset. L

@FSU boatrace time...should be catching 24 ish, maybe a morning game could save the cover??? DD L

Clemson Murderer's row continues.......too much speed +14.5, Duke should still be beat to garbage after the Noles..... DD L

bye

@Gtech Duke can be competive in this one.....Gtech has had a devil of a time vs good passing QB's... if Renfree is still healthy, he should get 300+ in this one. Possible upset, backdoor cover material here...... L

Miami, FL This one is situational at best...if Duke is in it then they can win this game......I like HC Golden for the Canes, but if they have nothing to play for, then the Dukies can get this one. TOSS UP

OK, to recap, we have a 3 wins 6 losses and 3 Toss ups. The idea here is to get some early season momentum, and have the 4 wins by week 6.  Pretty lofty goals, I know, but with the 3 must wins and 2 toss ups in the first 6, it is possible.  Need to get at least the push before the squad gets banged up and motivation fades.

At best a 6 and 6 record......but we could be looking at an 7-3 ats record with possible covers vs FIU, @Stanford, Memphis, @Wake, UNC, @Gtech, Miami FL.

In the other games vs Vtech, FSU and Clemson, they simply give too much talent away to wager on, no matter how many pts you get.....unless the situations change dramatically of course (and they usually do). My guess is that Duke will average about 30pts per game this season...who knows how many they will give up... the big thing on D is to get that YPC down around 4.0 even..cannot continually get runover and expect to win.

I will be watching the number for the FIU @Duke game very closely....hopefully most of the wagering public disagrees with me.

GL to all.

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#2
Posted: 8/22/2012 1:22:54 PM
I have over 3.5 and thinks it makes all the difference...

I think 4 wins is guaranteed, but alot has to go right for them to win 5+
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#3
Posted: 8/22/2012 1:39:26 PM
DUKE WIL HAVE TO WATCH OUT AGAINST FIU.  DUKE WILL MISSING A CHUNK OF RETURNING PLAYERS DUE TO INJURIES AND SUDPENSIONS.  FIU TETURNS 9 ON OFF SND 20 ON DEF.  IF DUKE LOSES TO FIU 4 WINS WILL BE CLOSE. WATCH OUT.


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#4
Posted: 8/22/2012 2:42:20 PM

i think i will steal your bet lets go cutcliff.

gl

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#5
Posted: 8/22/2012 4:19:02 PM

jdnmoney:

Where did you get 3.5?  If you got it online somewhere let me know.......I would gladly double up if I can get the wager at 3.5.

You're damn right 3.5 makes all the difference!!!!  Over 4 is a good bet with a high probability of a push...over 3.5 is a solid bet with a high probability of a win.

I got the 4 at Bookmaker..but like I said, for this type of wager, I would gladly lock and load elsewhere to get the best price.  Any input appreciated. 

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#6
Posted: 8/22/2012 7:41:30 PM
5dimes
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#7
Posted: 8/22/2012 7:43:32 PM
Idaho under 4.5
utep under 4.5
UNLV under 4.5


cannot see any of these teams winning 5 contests this year... I'm loaded up
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#8
Posted: 8/22/2012 8:32:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

Idaho under 4.5
utep under 4.5
UNLV under 4.5


cannot see any of these teams winning 5 contests this year... I'm loaded up
Can't argue that one , good luck
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bigvern1013 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Orleans Hotel and Casino |
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#9
Posted: 8/22/2012 10:34:10 PM

Spot on with UNLV under 4.5...coach Hauk should have never left Montana...doesnt have a bunch of tough local kids to bail him out every week.

Who is that big person in your avatar jdmoney?

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#10
Posted: 8/22/2012 10:41:01 PM

Well, I opened up  an account with 5dimes and naturally, I can't find the season wins bets.  Goddamn it.

I am going to call them...this isn't over.

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#11
Posted: 8/22/2012 11:41:37 PM
props under football

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bigvern1013 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Orleans Hotel and Casino |
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#12
Posted: 8/22/2012 11:56:04 PM
3.5 @ -260???? That is friggin steep.  I have to think about that one...agree it is a winner, but I am not sure I like Duke that much......
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#13
Posted: 8/22/2012 11:57:24 PM
I got it 5 weeks ago for -185

utep under 4.5 at -135
UNLV under 4.5 at -175


guess they respect my opinion over there huh
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#14
Posted: 8/23/2012 12:01:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

Spot on with UNLV under 4.5...coach Hauk should have never left Montana...doesnt have a bunch of tough local kids to bail him out every week.

Who is that big person in your avatar jdmoney?



Derek Poundstone....I got to train with him for 2 weeks once while he was on vacation   weightlifting is a huge hobby of mine
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bigvern1013 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Orleans Hotel and Casino |
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#15
Posted: 8/26/2012 6:24:08 PM

Just found a nice Duke over 3.5 for -180 at youwager.eu......

Doubled up the bet.  Need the first one vs FIU... get this girl won by the end of Oct.....and hope no hurricanes force a game cancellation and void the wager.   

Regular Season Wins
Duke - Thursday, August 30, 2012 7:00 PM
68821 Over 3½ wins -185
68822 Under 3½ wins +155
Regular Season Wins
Duke - Thursday, August 30, 2012 7:00 PM
68821 Over 3½ wins -185
68822 Under 3½ wins +155

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#16
Posted: 8/26/2012 6:25:04 PM
^185 instead of 180
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#17
Posted: 8/26/2012 6:28:15 PM

Also grabbed some Oklahoma over 10 at youwager.....the lines they have are better than many of the others I have looked at...Used them a few years back, and never had a problem getting paid.....smaller book, but they have been around awhile. Gonna give them a go......

Regular Season Wins
Oklahoma - Thursday, August 30, 2012 7:00 PM
68867 Over 10 wins +105
68868 Under 10 wins -135

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#18
Posted: 8/26/2012 6:51:16 PM
Yup. Put mine in about a month ago and also got it at 3.5.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#19
Posted: 9/5/2012 1:03:40 PM

1 win down, 3 to go.  Would be great to get one this week vs Stanford, but probably not......just need to get out healthy.

Offense looks pretty good....44pts in the first game is a good sign.

Keep choppin'

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#20
Posted: 9/26/2012 5:48:57 PM

Got 3 wins in the hat.  Time to put this baby on ice and get number 4 this week or next week, unless it is going to take a decent upset to cover.

The offense is playing well, and the defense is beat to garbage...need to ride this one in on the rims.

The way this season is going, if I get this bet home then maybe go on vacation until bowl season. 

On second thought, where is the fun in that?

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#21
Posted: 9/26/2012 6:27:13 PM
i tell ya vern this is a big game. Duke has a chance to be 5-1 when they go at Va.Tech. If they don't win these next 2 then probably no bowl. Find a win in their last 6 games its tough
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#22
Posted: 9/26/2012 7:32:48 PM
Like it

Have the Devils vs WAKE this weekend
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bigvern1013 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Orleans Hotel and Casino |
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#23
Posted: 9/29/2012 3:55:17 PM
GOT IT!!!!! 

Cashed in on over 3.5 and push at worst for the 4!!!!

That was a big wager for my year, its miller time.   
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#24
Posted: 9/29/2012 3:56:54 PM
I was on that too. Good call! 
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#25
Posted: 9/29/2012 6:28:59 PM
congrats vern
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