Posted: 8/22/2012 12:12:36 PM
Placed the bet a few days back. Duke over 4 wins +120....granted Duke has a tradition of garbage, but this one looks good to me.
Duke is one of my ATS sleepers this season. Here is why:
The obvious info is 8 returners on O and 9 on D....all info from Phil Steele mag.
Renfree is a 4th year senior QB, and by Febuary his name will be mentioned often in NFL draft war rooms. 6-5 230 and tutored by Cutcliff for 4 seasons....probably end up a late first or early 2nd round pick.
4 returners on o-line, 3 upper classmen.....that lends itself to a positive matchup vs smaller speed oriented d-lines or defenses that need to blitz to get pressure.
The defense has 9 starters back, but with an overall 4.9 ypc allowed, we can argue if that is a good thing. The teams that ran them over last season were Stanford, FSU, Vtech, Miami Fl, Gtech, UNC. Everyone else they held in check...although FIU did put up 4.3 ypc on them. 6 of Defensive Front 7 are back this season, with only 2 seniors in that group...this unit should be substantially improved this year.
It is tough to call an entire season before week one because things change so much from week to week (and even moreso when we are talking about teams that lack championship caliber depth). But, here it goes:
FIU young QB for FIU should let Duke load up vs run W
@ Stanford tough road trip to the west coast, but Stanford wont be the same squad that we are used too.....could be close L
NC Central teams like Duke NEED these games.....W
Memphis new coach for Memphis and struggling D W
@ Wake these Wake/Duke matchups are very close and depend on TO's.....this could be a good spot to grab some pts ....close, for the sake of arguement, TOSS UP
Virginia UVA was very fortunate last season with 4 close wins. Good luck handicapping this one, it is a tossup. TOSS UP
@VTech Duke will be getting a boatload of pts in this one, and they will need them all. DD L
UNC Dukies will be catching more pts here....I like Fedora the new HC for UNC, but that defense should be a bit weaker than it has been. Need to catch DD's here, possible upset. L
@FSU boatrace time...should be catching 24 ish, maybe a morning game could save the cover??? DD L
Clemson Murderer's row continues.......too much speed +14.5, Duke should still be beat to garbage after the Noles..... DD L
@Gtech Duke can be competive in this one.....Gtech has had a devil of a time vs good passing QB's... if Renfree is still healthy, he should get 300+ in this one. Possible upset, backdoor cover material here...... L
Miami, FL This one is situational at best...if Duke is in it then they can win this game......I like HC Golden for the Canes, but if they have nothing to play for, then the Dukies can get this one. TOSS UP
OK, to recap, we have a 3 wins 6 losses and 3 Toss ups. The idea here is to get some early season momentum, and have the 4 wins by week 6. Pretty lofty goals, I know, but with the 3 must wins and 2 toss ups in the first 6, it is possible. Need to get at least the push before the squad gets banged up and motivation fades.
At best a 6 and 6 record......but we could be looking at an 7-3 ats record with possible covers vs FIU, @Stanford, Memphis, @Wake, UNC, @Gtech, Miami FL.
In the other games vs Vtech, FSU and Clemson, they simply give too much talent away to wager on, no matter how many pts you get.....unless the situations change dramatically of course (and they usually do). My guess is that Duke will average about 30pts per game this season...who knows how many they will give up... the big thing on D is to get that YPC down around 4.0 even..cannot continually get runover and expect to win.
I will be watching the number for the FIU @Duke game very closely....hopefully most of the wagering public disagrees with me.
GL to all.