With the season almost upon us I wanted to get my plays out there a little early. I have been one of the worst money managers with regards to gambling for the last couple of years and have taken off since the end of March Madness to get my act together and employ a new strategy. I have often posted plays on covers with little or no thought behind them because I was bored and had nothing better to do. Of course I was also wagering on these plays and losing damn near 75% of them. Just dumb. Will not happen this year, of course I need to prove that to myself as well. I feel I have a strong ability to cap any given game given enough effort and will only post plays now that I have a full writeup to back up. So I will probably only post 2-3 plays per week and a hell of a lot less weekday games. Wish I had a lot more time but between work, MBA classes and my new website I'm a pretty busy guy. I will employ my standard strategy of one unit per game unless I find something that I really like. Will still have a few Bibendi Special's and will have one week one. These will range anywhere between 2-3 units per play.
Play 1:
Bibendi Special:
Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech Under ??(3 units)
Right now this line is hovering right around 50 at the current time and I hope I get it released somewhere around there. As long as it doesnt fall below 49 it'll be a 3 unit play and anywhere between 48-49 will be a 2 unit play. I think at this point everyone understands I am a Hokie and have tried over the last few years to put aside my bias when dealing with their games. I know more than I care to about this team and when I say their defense is going to be spectacular you should believe it. What do you need to stop the option? 1. Experience. It is even more important than skill if you have never played against it before. 2. Time to prepare. You would want to play GT on a Thursday night after a Saturday game. Not enough time to prepare for the option and a recipe for disaster. 3. A solid defensive line and fast linebackers.
Check, check and check. The Hokies return almost every starter on defense including their entire defensive line and linebacker corps. The defensive line is going to be beastly. James Gayle continues to do nothing but impress in preparation for this season. The most impressive part of the defensive line in my eyes is how quick they get off the ball. The Hopkins are the fastest defensive tackles off the ball I have seen at VT and that is huge when defending the option. They also return preseason All-American Bruce Taylor at the Mike position and he is very fast chasing down plays. The depth continues into the secondary with Exum and Fuller who are excellent tacklers and former linebackers themselves at corner. While they still excel in coverage(GT returns exactly ZERO career receptions from their wideouts, they will be called upon to make plays at the line of scrimmage by Foster.
They have had all summer to prepare and with Austin Peay the following weekend they can afford a bit extra preparation. Foster has traditionally been owned by Paul Johnson but he has not had this type of time to prepare for the team. This is also important as GT returns a solid offensive line and their QB and RB's. VT did a pretty good job stopping those guys in Atlanta last year, and should do an even better job considering it is the first game of the season and teams tend to be a bit sloppier early on.
Virginia Tech on offense returns, well, Logan Thomas. Who did make great strides last season but I'm terrified of the fact I've seen him going as high as #1 overall in some 2013 NFL mock draft. Terrified. He has a long way to go and needs to get much better, although the talent is there. They will have a freshman at running back and inexperienced line and wide receiving corps. VT is going to have no choice but to be conservative on offense. While Stinespring is no longer calling the plays, I suspect a heavy dose of Logan Thomas tucking and running early in the season. They are going to have Marcus Davis, who could be an NFL receiver if he screwed his head on his shoulders, and a bunch of guys who are lightning quick but still dont know how to run routes very well. I dont expect very many quick strike plays that always tend to be under killers.
This game is also a night game in Lane Stadium and the only game on at that time. The crowd is going to be juiced and the defense is the side of the ball that benefits the most from that. I can see GT sustaining some drives but the defense inside the redzone has always been very good at night.
Just my take fellas, I'll be hammering it. If I had to guess at a score I'd say it's going to be very tight, which would make me lean GT in this one, but I like the under much more. VT-20, GT-17. And I wouldnt be surprised if the total went lower than that
I'm going to try to post all my writeups here and just joined twitter under bibendi23 as well and love to discuss the games on there when I'm at work
With the season almost upon us I wanted to get my plays out there a little early. I have been one of the worst money managers with regards to gambling for the last couple of years and have taken off since the end of March Madness to get my act together and employ a new strategy. I have often posted plays on covers with little or no thought behind them because I was bored and had nothing better to do. Of course I was also wagering on these plays and losing damn near 75% of them. Just dumb. Will not happen this year, of course I need to prove that to myself as well. I feel I have a strong ability to cap any given game given enough effort and will only post plays now that I have a full writeup to back up. So I will probably only post 2-3 plays per week and a hell of a lot less weekday games. Wish I had a lot more time but between work, MBA classes and my new website I'm a pretty busy guy. I will employ my standard strategy of one unit per game unless I find something that I really like. Will still have a few Bibendi Special's and will have one week one. These will range anywhere between 2-3 units per play.
Play 1:
Bibendi Special:
Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech Under ??(3 units)
Right now this line is hovering right around 50 at the current time and I hope I get it released somewhere around there. As long as it doesnt fall below 49 it'll be a 3 unit play and anywhere between 48-49 will be a 2 unit play. I think at this point everyone understands I am a Hokie and have tried over the last few years to put aside my bias when dealing with their games. I know more than I care to about this team and when I say their defense is going to be spectacular you should believe it. What do you need to stop the option? 1. Experience. It is even more important than skill if you have never played against it before. 2. Time to prepare. You would want to play GT on a Thursday night after a Saturday game. Not enough time to prepare for the option and a recipe for disaster. 3. A solid defensive line and fast linebackers.
Check, check and check. The Hokies return almost every starter on defense including their entire defensive line and linebacker corps. The defensive line is going to be beastly. James Gayle continues to do nothing but impress in preparation for this season. The most impressive part of the defensive line in my eyes is how quick they get off the ball. The Hopkins are the fastest defensive tackles off the ball I have seen at VT and that is huge when defending the option. They also return preseason All-American Bruce Taylor at the Mike position and he is very fast chasing down plays. The depth continues into the secondary with Exum and Fuller who are excellent tacklers and former linebackers themselves at corner. While they still excel in coverage(GT returns exactly ZERO career receptions from their wideouts, they will be called upon to make plays at the line of scrimmage by Foster.
They have had all summer to prepare and with Austin Peay the following weekend they can afford a bit extra preparation. Foster has traditionally been owned by Paul Johnson but he has not had this type of time to prepare for the team. This is also important as GT returns a solid offensive line and their QB and RB's. VT did a pretty good job stopping those guys in Atlanta last year, and should do an even better job considering it is the first game of the season and teams tend to be a bit sloppier early on.
Virginia Tech on offense returns, well, Logan Thomas. Who did make great strides last season but I'm terrified of the fact I've seen him going as high as #1 overall in some 2013 NFL mock draft. Terrified. He has a long way to go and needs to get much better, although the talent is there. They will have a freshman at running back and inexperienced line and wide receiving corps. VT is going to have no choice but to be conservative on offense. While Stinespring is no longer calling the plays, I suspect a heavy dose of Logan Thomas tucking and running early in the season. They are going to have Marcus Davis, who could be an NFL receiver if he screwed his head on his shoulders, and a bunch of guys who are lightning quick but still dont know how to run routes very well. I dont expect very many quick strike plays that always tend to be under killers.
This game is also a night game in Lane Stadium and the only game on at that time. The crowd is going to be juiced and the defense is the side of the ball that benefits the most from that. I can see GT sustaining some drives but the defense inside the redzone has always been very good at night.
Just my take fellas, I'll be hammering it. If I had to guess at a score I'd say it's going to be very tight, which would make me lean GT in this one, but I like the under much more. VT-20, GT-17. And I wouldnt be surprised if the total went lower than that
I'm going to try to post all my writeups here and just joined twitter under bibendi23 as well and love to discuss the games on there when I'm at work
GT +8 is a very good play. Hell I'd probably jump on the ML associated with that as there is some value there. Washington has played in Lane Stadium at night before which is a HUGE advantage for him. Still dont think they get much going on offense though.
How's Buffalo treating you? I'm as excited for an NFL season as I've been in 15+ years! Plan on making my semi-annual trip up to Duff's in 2 weeks and need a good wing. Maryland just doesnt know how to make one!
GT +8 is a very good play. Hell I'd probably jump on the ML associated with that as there is some value there. Washington has played in Lane Stadium at night before which is a HUGE advantage for him. Still dont think they get much going on offense though.
How's Buffalo treating you? I'm as excited for an NFL season as I've been in 15+ years! Plan on making my semi-annual trip up to Duff's in 2 weeks and need a good wing. Maryland just doesnt know how to make one!
I agree, should be a low scoring game. GT should be better on defense & for the 1st time in Johnson's career he's hired a special teams coach, so that should be improved as well. Lane stadium at night is always tough, but Washington actually played pretty well there 2 yrs ago when he got thrown in the fire after Nesbitt got hurt. I'm leaning towards..
I agree, should be a low scoring game. GT should be better on defense & for the 1st time in Johnson's career he's hired a special teams coach, so that should be improved as well. Lane stadium at night is always tough, but Washington actually played pretty well there 2 yrs ago when he got thrown in the fire after Nesbitt got hurt. I'm leaning towards..
I agree, should be a low scoring game. GT should be better on defense & for the 1st time in Johnson's career he's hired a special teams coach, so that should be improved as well. Lane stadium at night is always tough, but Washington actually played pretty well there 2 yrs ago when he got thrown in the fire after Nesbitt got hurt. I'm leaning towards..
GT +7.5
GT ML
Under 50
GL
Cant disagree with ya at all
What is a Jacket fan thinking of their defense this year?
I agree, should be a low scoring game. GT should be better on defense & for the 1st time in Johnson's career he's hired a special teams coach, so that should be improved as well. Lane stadium at night is always tough, but Washington actually played pretty well there 2 yrs ago when he got thrown in the fire after Nesbitt got hurt. I'm leaning towards..
GT +7.5
GT ML
Under 50
GL
Cant disagree with ya at all
What is a Jacket fan thinking of their defense this year?
What is a Jacket fan thinking of their defense this year?
Defense should be better, but still not great. Probably the deepest & most athletic secondary that I can remember. Fast & athletic at LB. It's the DL that concerns me. We need to find a pass rush and also need to start getting off the field on 3rd down. I'm optimistic
What is a Jacket fan thinking of their defense this year?
Defense should be better, but still not great. Probably the deepest & most athletic secondary that I can remember. Fast & athletic at LB. It's the DL that concerns me. We need to find a pass rush and also need to start getting off the field on 3rd down. I'm optimistic
Arent we all optimistic prior to the season? If you dont pressure Logan and he has time to throw, you may actually give our receivers enough time to separate. Logan has a cannon. Could be a concern for you guys with the speed of our receivers
Arent we all optimistic prior to the season? If you dont pressure Logan and he has time to throw, you may actually give our receivers enough time to separate. Logan has a cannon. Could be a concern for you guys with the speed of our receivers
Good write up, made some convincing points. I don't think I've seen anybody who feels confident laying the points with Va Tech as a side bet!? Anyways BOL
Good write up, made some convincing points. I don't think I've seen anybody who feels confident laying the points with Va Tech as a side bet!? Anyways BOL
GT +8 is a very good play. Hell I'd probably jump on the ML associated with that as there is some value there. Washington has played in Lane Stadium at night before which is a HUGE advantage for him. Still dont think they get much going on offense though.
How's Buffalo treating you? I'm as excited for an NFL season as I've been in 15+ years! Plan on making my semi-annual trip up to Duff's in 2 weeks and need a good wing. Maryland just doesnt know how to make one!
Good luck buddy
Great to hear from ya Brother
I strongly urge you to skip Duff's and try something much BETTER about 1.5 Miles farther down Sheridan Drive just Past Niagara Falls Blvd and eat some wings at the Buffalo Tap Room ... Top shelf wings , super meaty and cooked perfect to order. .. Great beer selection as well ...
Duff's switched their wings to a less meaty smaller wing to make more ??? since their name alone will keep the Biz coming in .
I have moved the Family even farther out into the Burbs .don't want my Children growing up dealing with the anything Like I did ( Gangs , Crack addicts, Dealers, Proste's etc...)
Have a excellent summer and enjoy your trip of here to the Rough Buff.
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
GT +8 is a very good play. Hell I'd probably jump on the ML associated with that as there is some value there. Washington has played in Lane Stadium at night before which is a HUGE advantage for him. Still dont think they get much going on offense though.
How's Buffalo treating you? I'm as excited for an NFL season as I've been in 15+ years! Plan on making my semi-annual trip up to Duff's in 2 weeks and need a good wing. Maryland just doesnt know how to make one!
Good luck buddy
Great to hear from ya Brother
I strongly urge you to skip Duff's and try something much BETTER about 1.5 Miles farther down Sheridan Drive just Past Niagara Falls Blvd and eat some wings at the Buffalo Tap Room ... Top shelf wings , super meaty and cooked perfect to order. .. Great beer selection as well ...
Duff's switched their wings to a less meaty smaller wing to make more ??? since their name alone will keep the Biz coming in .
I have moved the Family even farther out into the Burbs .don't want my Children growing up dealing with the anything Like I did ( Gangs , Crack addicts, Dealers, Proste's etc...)
Have a excellent summer and enjoy your trip of here to the Rough Buff.
Second play of the year. This play is based on the dominance Alabama has over everyone in the trenches, especially Michigan. Their offensive line is so dominant they can afford to move their Outland Trophy Winner Barrett Jones to center and fill the left tackle spot with an even bigger freak of an athlete. With the right tackle a future 1st rounder in DJ Fluker this line should dominate the Michigan D-Line that only returns 1 starter and wasnt exceptional to begin with. While the loss of Trent Richardson is tough to overcome, all reports say Eddie Lacy looks like a star in the preseason. Running behind that offensive line, he better be.
While McCarron isnt necessarily a star, what successful QB at Alabama has been since...well Namath? McCarron has already won a national title and is very solid. He loses a lot of weapons in the passing game but the new contributors are very talented and should step right in. I dont see them needed to pass a whole lot in this game, outside of Michigan biting on a few play action fakes. Michigan does return all of their linebackers and a most of their secondary from a respectable unit. Combined with the fact Bama is breaking in the new starters and I'll consider that much a wash., despite Bama having more talent.
Overall, I anticipate Alabama wearing down Michigan and Eddie Lacy having a huge game.
Where I really like Alabama in this game is defensively. We all know Alabama has an awesome defense year in and year out. This year they lose a majority of their linebackers and playmakers in the secondary but return most of the defensive line. However, I dont think this game is as much about what Alabama returns, as it is about what Michigan does. Denard Robinson is electric at QB for them, but when facing a legitimate defense he REALLY struggles. For example, vs. VT in the Sugar Bowl last year Michigan accounted for a total of 184 yards...45 of those on a hail mary that was thrown up for grabs to Hemingway...but most importantly he only completed 9 of 21 passes. VT has a pretty strong D-Line, but nothing when compared to what Alabama brings to the table. Additionally Michigan loses the backbone of their O-Line in David Molk and will have a tough time keeping Robinson off his back. The fact is that Robinson is a below average QB, who is prone to mistakes, when pressured. He is going to be forced to make quick reads and not get flustered which he has not proven that he can do up to this point...
Everything else as it is, I expect Alabama to roll in this one. Robinson should put up crazy numbers again this year, just wont start until their second game of the season.
Second play of the year. This play is based on the dominance Alabama has over everyone in the trenches, especially Michigan. Their offensive line is so dominant they can afford to move their Outland Trophy Winner Barrett Jones to center and fill the left tackle spot with an even bigger freak of an athlete. With the right tackle a future 1st rounder in DJ Fluker this line should dominate the Michigan D-Line that only returns 1 starter and wasnt exceptional to begin with. While the loss of Trent Richardson is tough to overcome, all reports say Eddie Lacy looks like a star in the preseason. Running behind that offensive line, he better be.
While McCarron isnt necessarily a star, what successful QB at Alabama has been since...well Namath? McCarron has already won a national title and is very solid. He loses a lot of weapons in the passing game but the new contributors are very talented and should step right in. I dont see them needed to pass a whole lot in this game, outside of Michigan biting on a few play action fakes. Michigan does return all of their linebackers and a most of their secondary from a respectable unit. Combined with the fact Bama is breaking in the new starters and I'll consider that much a wash., despite Bama having more talent.
Overall, I anticipate Alabama wearing down Michigan and Eddie Lacy having a huge game.
Where I really like Alabama in this game is defensively. We all know Alabama has an awesome defense year in and year out. This year they lose a majority of their linebackers and playmakers in the secondary but return most of the defensive line. However, I dont think this game is as much about what Alabama returns, as it is about what Michigan does. Denard Robinson is electric at QB for them, but when facing a legitimate defense he REALLY struggles. For example, vs. VT in the Sugar Bowl last year Michigan accounted for a total of 184 yards...45 of those on a hail mary that was thrown up for grabs to Hemingway...but most importantly he only completed 9 of 21 passes. VT has a pretty strong D-Line, but nothing when compared to what Alabama brings to the table. Additionally Michigan loses the backbone of their O-Line in David Molk and will have a tough time keeping Robinson off his back. The fact is that Robinson is a below average QB, who is prone to mistakes, when pressured. He is going to be forced to make quick reads and not get flustered which he has not proven that he can do up to this point...
Everything else as it is, I expect Alabama to roll in this one. Robinson should put up crazy numbers again this year, just wont start until their second game of the season.
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