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Author: [College Football] Topic: Duke -4 vs FIU
SatNightFever05 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/8/2012 3:37:06 PM
Strong lean to the Devils here.. bring back boat load of starters on both sides of the ball.. FIU loses QB and Hilton..

Thoughts??


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#2
Posted: 8/8/2012 4:07:50 PM
Duke -4 is one of my 8 W1 bets this year.

Best team at Duke under Coach Cut.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#3
Posted: 8/8/2012 4:54:22 PM

small favorite..2 bad teams...no bet...or bet the favorite.

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#4
Posted: 8/8/2012 4:59:50 PM
Dukes W/L over under is 3.5 games...im thinking under
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#5
Posted: 8/8/2012 5:09:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Capper007:

Dukes W/L over under is 3.5 games...im thinking under


Really?

I love the Over..

Should start 3-1

then one of @Wake, UVA, Miami at home
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#6
Posted: 8/8/2012 5:10:19 PM
Good find worth playing. Duke was +3.5 @FIU ly and won by 4. If all things were the same this year they'd be within about -3 at home.

But things have changed and FIU has no QB and their #1 playmaker gone. FIU does return 10 on D however.

Seems Duke should be at least -7
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#7
Posted: 8/8/2012 5:27:18 PM
For the over (3.5) to hit this is a must win, I lean toward the over myself  and expecting the 3-1 start to propel that play, an upset at wake in game 5 ( and the devils always play a tight game with wake) and we could be in line at the pay window early
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#8
Posted: 8/8/2012 5:40:49 PM
Was leaning FIU, but losing key personnel I may have to scratch that.  Duke does look better on second look
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#9
Posted: 8/8/2012 6:10:23 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:

Strong lean to the Devils here.. bring back boat load of starters on both sides of the ball.. FIU loses QB and Hilton..

Thoughts??


I really like Duke as well SNF.

 

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#10
Posted: 8/8/2012 9:11:59 PM
A lean is maybe all it should be...

FIU didn't (really) lose their QB....kinda sorta
Medlock had replaced Carroll for the FAU game.....after losing to WKU.....and likely would have finished as the starter had he not gotten hurt vs ULM

In last years game...Duke got pushed around pretty good....out-gained by FIU 568-384....28-18 FD...
Duke only 4-14 on 3rd....FIU 8-15
    *a late fumble on the FIU 9 allowed Duke the go ahead score....game ended with FIU in Duke RZ...

Hilton no doubt their best player ....but didn't do just a whole lot in that game.....5 catches for a TD (seems like he was hurt)....
TY they pick up Ohio St transfer... WR James Louis
so along with RB Rhodes(1200 yds or so)....and WR's Times and Younger form a dangerous group...
OL returns 4/5 and 103 starts.....and D returns intact (17/18 tacklers are back)
   ****a plus for Duke....maybe........besides FIU rolling in with an inexperienced QB.....
Is that FIU has a new OC and will be running the Oregon offense...not too terribly different....but no doubt many will still be THINKING week 1.....advantage > Duke

The problem with Duke....is that they can't run at all (3.1/rush...94 yds/g)....and struggle to stop the run (4.9...181).....LY FIU had 176 rushing (4.3) and 392 passing.......

** also...4 Duke starters are OUT........
WR Holiday...TE Deaver....NG Bruce...WLB Brown

I kinda like Duke too....but looking at how FIU controlled the line of scrimmage (LOS) last year...maybe avoid playing them here...in an UNFAMILIAR role as home favorite....maybe wait till week 2 at Stanford....who has USC on deck ....
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#11
Posted: 8/8/2012 9:16:05 PM
Duke?!!!!?
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#12
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:13:33 PM
Like Duke and the Over
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#13
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:21:23 PM

Duke is one of my  ATS  sleepers this season.  Here is why:

The obvious info is 8 returners on O and 9 on D....all info from Phil Steele mag. 

Renfree is a 4th year senior QB, and by Febuary his name will be mentioned often in NFL draft war rooms.  6-5 230 and tutored by Cutcliff for 4 seasons....probably end up a late first or early 2nd round pick.

4 returners on o-line, 3 upper classmen.....that lends itself to a positive matchup vs smaller speed oriented d-lines or defenses that need to blitz to get pressure.

The defense has 9 starters back, but with an overall 4.9 ypc allowed, we can argue if that is a good thing.  The teams that ran them over last season were Stanford, FSU, Vtech, Miami Fl, Gtech, UNC.  Everyone else they held in check...although FIU did put up 4.3 ypc on them.  6 of Defensive Front 7 are back this season, with only 2 seniors in that group...this unit should be substantially improved this year.

It is tough to call an entire season before week one because things change so much from week to week (and even moreso when we are talking about teams that lack championship caliber depth). But, here it goes:

FIU       young QB for FIU should let Duke load up vs run   W

@ Stanford     tough road trip to the west coast, but Stanford wont be the same squad that we are used too.....could be close L

NC Central   teams like Duke NEED these games.....   W

Memphis     new coach for Memphis and struggling D      W

@ Wake     these Wake/Duke matchups are very close and depend on TO's.....this could be a good spot to grab some pts ....close, for the sake of arguement,  PUSH

Virginia     UVA was very fortunate last season with 4 close wins. Good luck handicapping this one, it is a tossup.    PUSH

@VTech  Duke will be getting a boatload of pts in this one, and they will need them all.  DD L

UNC    will be catching more pts here....I like Fedora the new HC for UNC, but that defense should be a bit weaker than it has been.  Need to catch DD's here, possible upset.  L

@FSU   boatrace time...should be catching 24 ish, maybe a morning game could save the cover??? DD L

Clemson   Murderer's row continues.......too much speed  +14.5, Duke should still be beat to garbage after the Noles..... DD L

bye

@Gtech     Duke can be competive in this one.....Gtech has had a devil of  a time vs good passing QB's... if Renfree is still healthy, he should get 300+ in this one.   Possible upset, backdoor cover material here......    L

Miami, FL     This one is situational at best...if Duke is in it then they can win this game......I like HC Golden for the Canes, but if they have nothing to play for, then the Dukies can get this one.  PUSH

OK, to recap, we have a  3 wins 6 losses and 3 pushes (a push being to close to call IMO).  

 At best a 6 and 6 record......but we could be looking at an 7-3 ats record with possible covers vs FIU, @Stanford, Memphis, @Wake, UNC, @Gtech, Miami FL. 

In the other games vs Vtech, FSU and Clemson, they simply give too much talent away to wager on, no matter how many pts you get.....unless the situations change dramatically of course (and they usually do). My guess is that Duke will average about 30pts per game this season...who knows how many they will give up... the big thing on D is to get that YPC down around  4.0 even..cannot continually get runover  and expect to win.

I will be watching the number for the FIU @Duke game very closely....hopefully most of the wagering public disagrees with me. 

GL to all. 

 

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#14
Posted: 8/9/2012 7:24:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

A lean is maybe all it should be...

FIU didn't (really) lose their QB....kinda sorta
Medlock had replaced Carroll for the FAU game.....after losing to WKU.....and likely would have finished as the starter had he not gotten hurt vs ULM

In last years game...Duke got pushed around pretty good....out-gained by FIU 568-384....28-18 FD...
Duke only 4-14 on 3rd....FIU 8-15
    *a late fumble on the FIU 9 allowed Duke the go ahead score....game ended with FIU in Duke RZ...

Hilton no doubt their best player ....but didn't do just a whole lot in that game.....5 catches for a TD (seems like he was hurt)....
TY they pick up Ohio St transfer... WR James Louis
so along with RB Rhodes(1200 yds or so)....and WR's Times and Younger form a dangerous group...
OL returns 4/5 and 103 starts.....and D returns intact (17/18 tacklers are back)
   ****a plus for Duke....maybe........besides FIU rolling in with an inexperienced QB.....
Is that FIU has a new OC and will be running the Oregon offense...not too terribly different....but no doubt many will still be THINKING week 1.....advantage > Duke

The problem with Duke....is that they can't run at all (3.1/rush...94 yds/g)....and struggle to stop the run (4.9...181).....LY FIU had 176 rushing (4.3) and 392 passing.......

** also...4 Duke starters are OUT........
WR Holiday...TE Deaver....NG Bruce...WLB Brown

I kinda like Duke too....but looking at how FIU controlled the line of scrimmage (LOS) last year...maybe avoid playing them here...in an UNFAMILIAR role as home favorite....maybe wait till week 2 at Stanford....who has USC on deck .... 
What up bookie, the more I look at this the more I see FIUand the points and DUKE on the ML,  what say bookie
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#15
Posted: 8/9/2012 9:04:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nc1capper:

What up bookie, the more I look at this the more I see FIUand the points and DUKE on the ML,  what say bookie


maybe...stay away for me I think...

although FIU looks like the better team....as the boys mentioned Duke will be the hungrier team no doubt....as they MUST have this game for any shot at a bowl....
*tough to say how FIU moves it with a young QB running a new O on the road....could look great or stink it up....he (FIU QB Medlock) is a tough person that can run though....> KO'ed a LB last year it seems  
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#16
Posted: 8/9/2012 10:20:53 AM
Duke wins
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#17
Posted: 8/9/2012 2:10:17 PM
TY Hilton was a stud ... thinking FIU takes a step back in the SBC this season 

Duke Over 3.5 wins carries like -260 juice 


Likely will add Duke ATS (small) soon
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#18
Posted: 8/15/2012 4:56:42 PM
I like Duke as well....will prolly add to my card. Have a great season and congratulations on your marriage.
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#19
Posted: 8/15/2012 5:05:46 PM
Lots of injuries per BookieAssassin for Duke

Need to look further

AMD
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#20
Posted: 8/15/2012 5:37:20 PM
Pending injury status, I'm with you. Small play on the Dukies. Good luck to you.
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#21
Posted: 8/15/2012 6:50:37 PM
Lots of top shelf cappers have interest here, perhaps a clearer  vision will emerge
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#22
Posted: 8/23/2012 4:08:01 PM
Best of Luck 
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#23
Posted: 8/23/2012 11:47:36 PM
@ Capper007.....you said, "2 bad teams"....Why is FIU a bad team?  Yeah, they play in the Sun Belt, and a lot of people probably don't know about them.  But they did beat Louisville @ Louisville last year by 7, and beat UCF the next week by 7.  They will field a better team this year with a better defense.  They also outgained Duke by 184 yards last season a game they should have won.
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#24
Posted: 8/24/2012 12:19:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

It is tough to call an entire season before week one because things change so much from week to week (and even moreso when we are talking about teams that lack championship caliber depth). But, here it goes:

FIU       young QB for FIU should let Duke load up vs run   W

@ Stanford     tough road trip to the west coast, but Stanford wont be the same squad that we are used too.....could be close.. L

NC Central   teams like Duke NEED these games.....   W

Memphis     new coach for Memphis and struggling D      W

@ Wake     these Wake/Duke matchups are very close and depend on TO's.....this could be a good spot to grab some pts ....close, for the sake of arguement,  PUSH

Virginia     UVA was very fortunate last season with 4 close wins. Good luck handicapping this one, it is a tossup.    PUSH

@VTech  Duke will be getting a boatload of pts in this one, and they will need them all.  DDL

UNC    will be catching more pts here....I like Fedora the new HC for UNC, but that defense should be a bit weaker than it has been.  Need to catch DD's here, possible upset.  L

@FSU   boatrace time...should be catching 24 ish, maybe a morning game could save the cover??? DD L

Clemson   Murderer's row continues.......too much speed  +14.5, Duke should still be beat to garbage after the Noles..... DD L

bye

@Gtech     Duke can be competive in this one.....Gtech has had a devil of  a time vs good passing QB's... if Renfree is still healthy, he should get 300+ in this one.   Possible upset, backdoor cover material here......    L

Miami, FL     This one is situational at best...if Duke is in it then they can win this game......I like HC Golden for the Canes, but if they have nothing to play for, then the Dukies can get this one.  PUSH

OK, to recap, we have a  3 wins 6 losses and 3 pushes (a push being to close to call IMO).  

 At best a 6 and 6 record......but we could be looking at an 7-3 ats record with possible covers vs FIU, @Stanford, Memphis, @Wake, UNC, @Gtech, Miami FL. 

In the other games vs Vtech, FSU and Clemson, they simply give too much talent away to wager on, no matter how many pts you get.....unless the situations change dramatically of course (and they usually do). My guess is that Duke will average about 30pts per game this season...who knows how many they will give up... the big thing on D is to get that YPC down around  4.0 even..cannot continually get runover  and expect to win.

I will be watching the number for the FIU @Duke game very closely....hopefully most of the wagering public disagrees with me. 

GL to all. 

 



duke  should  disapear  from CFB  just  like  Kansas  and just be happy to be  CBB  powerhouses
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#25
Posted: 8/24/2012 12:13:57 PM

So many great plays on the board!! I cant fathom why people are wasting energy on this game??. Its a coin flip at best!!

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