of all the big chalks in week one

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Author: [College Football] Topic: of all the big chalks in week one
UL-LAFAYETTEKID PM UL-LAFAYETTEKID
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Posted: 8/4/2012 9:45:57 PM
which top 25 program has the biggest chance of not only covering the spread but will find there selves in a all out  brawel just to get out with a season saving win.........i can just here reace davis or brent musburger saying hold to your hats folks we are on upset alert.....i can see a couple in sparty ,,,,cross boise st at  your own risk,,,yall here me...a couple of years ago florida opened up vs  M- of ohio and i lost my behind ...beware ohio st  backers could we be in for a repeat performance...but i think that was the season meyer had health woes...hope he;s able to moviate his guys in week 1....texas is some what supect,,,great defense shady offense,,,becareful texas backers......i would like to here others votes for this ......GL CAPPERS.......
fsutomahawk PM fsutomahawk
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Posted: 8/5/2012 12:19:28 AM
Boise hanging with Michigan State as only a 7 point dog would not constitute a major shocker in my mind, even though State should be a very good team this year. It's tough to look at the card and see any game that jumps out in week 1, but the last few season there has been one. Can't wait for it all to start.
effedbythehook PM effedbythehook
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Posted: 8/5/2012 12:28:07 AM
Boise St has 5 returning starters 
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 8/5/2012 12:34:06 AM

like i have said before, the myth of the underdog predator boise is out the door...in fact, i think it will motivate Mich St to be very focussed in this game...i think you can call the inexperience at the key positions on O even..the difference here will be on D.    Mich St is loaded.   Boise will be a respectable D by the end of the year and will probably win the MWC, but in week 1, I am not so sure.  In addition, Boise has a a new OC in Prince who just arrived last year.  D'tonio is a good coach comparable to Petersen.    From a raw talent perspective, there is no contest that Mich St is better.

I think this will be a close game for a half, and Mich St will pull away and win by 14-17...GLTA

 

ApocalypseLater PM ApocalypseLater
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Posted: 8/5/2012 12:36:50 AM
somewhere in there is gonna be an upset or near upset of a 20+ point favorite... who it will be is tough to say...

i will say that Boise beating MSU won't be considered a major upset by most people... but it would to me... shocking, in fact!  Boise will not remotely resemble the past 3 years, and people will quickly realize that they are not a powerhouse team this year...
ApocalypseLater PM ApocalypseLater
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Posted: 8/5/2012 12:38:23 AM
two upsets i think will happen, but won't really be considered major upsets, are Ohio U and La Tech... think both teams will win outright...
jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 8/5/2012 12:41:32 AM
Live Dogs who have a good shot at winning outright in wk one
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SMU +13
Wash St +13.5
Toledo +10.5
Western Michigan +9.5

would not be shocked if 2 outta these 4 won OUTRIGHT
jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 8/5/2012 12:42:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

two upsets i think will happen, but won't really be considered major upsets, are Ohio U and La Tech... think both teams will win outright...

COMPLETELY AGREE, not saying they will but they have better than 50/50 chances of it IMO...


LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 8/5/2012 1:23:21 AM

So Apoc - do you believe Mich St is a good bet -7 in the matchup with Boise? 

I am trying to decide what is the better bet Bama -12 or Mich St -7...thanks for your takes....

ApocalypseLater PM ApocalypseLater
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Posted: 8/5/2012 2:27:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

So Apoc - do you believe Mich St is a good bet -7 in the matchup with Boise? 

I am trying to decide what is the better bet Bama -12 or Mich St -7...thanks for your takes....




i like Mich St... i bought the hook on that one, cuz it could definitely land on 7... although i think it's more likely to be in the 11-14 range... a lot of people around here really like Bama, and i can't argue it, but i'm not sold that they will be in prime form right out of the gate, with so many new key players... they will still be great by the end of the year, but i think they will be happy to get a 7 point win in that game...
amd PM amd
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Posted: 8/5/2012 9:22:32 AM
We won't have to hear about Boise St after week 1.
thorpe PM thorpe
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Posted: 8/5/2012 11:15:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

 From a raw talent perspective, there is no contest that Mich St is better.

 


I'm not so sure about this.  Mich St recruits more highly touted athletes, but Boise has put a lot of players into the NFL the last 4 years, and has a much better roster of NFL players than Mich St does right now. 

I agree with most of your other points.  Getting this game at home and not at a neutral site is big for Sparty.
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 8/5/2012 11:21:29 AM
I approve of this "Boise is done" talk......spread the word!
THEY CAN'T PLAY!.....they will be terrible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
UL-LAFAYETTEKID PM UL-LAFAYETTEKID
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Posted: 8/5/2012 1:32:45 PM
bookie i heard the same kind of talk last season in the season opener vs i think it was that SEC squad ,,cannot think which one right now but i think boise did good,,,i think they won like 33-30 in the final seconds on labor day night....but maybe i am wrong,,, maybe the smuff turf kids are finished....we will see.......hopefully with so many people in love with sparty being at home and all ,,,and top notch big 10 defense maybe we can get this line up to 9 or 10 by gametime ....than we can pounce and maybe the smuff kids can pull some rabbits out of there helmets like they did vs the sooners in that big bowl game a few seasons ago......
effedbythehook PM effedbythehook
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Posted: 8/5/2012 3:31:02 PM
APOC- Interested to hear your take on the A&M game. Both teams get a boatload of talent back. Obviously Texas has a QB change but they have also dominated this series. Tech finished last season on a 9-1 ATS run but the competition was inferior. Definitly an interesting game on a fairly weak Thursday opener. Wondering if Tech will handle the step up in class....
UL-LAFAYETTEKID PM UL-LAFAYETTEKID
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Posted: 8/5/2012 5:07:00 PM
Ethehook do not take terry bradshawn;s   school;s kids lightly ...sonny dyskes will have his squad ready.. the game is about a hour away from ruston and grambling louisiana so the crowd will be pro tech ..like 70/30 because a&m is about 4 to 5 hours away ....i do not really think it;s to much of a hike in class .....if the bulldogs defense comes to play and can get a few stops when needed i know what the O is capable of doing   ...i think tech can keep it close and i don;t want to call for the outright striaght-up win but i think they have a good chance...
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 8/5/2012 5:18:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UL-LAFAYETTEKID:

bookie i heard the same kind of talk last season in the season opener vs i think it was that SEC squad ,,cannot think which one right now but i think boise did good,,,i think they won like 33-30 in the final seconds on labor day night....but maybe i am wrong,,, maybe the smuff turf kids are finished....we will see.......hopefully with so many people in love with sparty being at home and all ,,,and top notch big 10 defense maybe we can get this line up to 9 or 10 by gametime ....than we can pounce and maybe the smuff kids can pull some rabbits out of there helmets like they did vs the sooners in that big bowl game a few seasons ago......


With all the games on the board...you'd have to be nuts to pick Boise as the team to fade.......as there are so many others more worthy....dontcha think?
    
TRUE....they lost more than ever......coaches included

But HC Peterson plays more guys than anybody...they rotate heavily......> you practice hard/compete > you will play 

Although recruiting has always been weak....here's an example of what great coaching can do...

Currently....from 2011 team...11-12 of these guys that can't play are on NFL rosters......wtf you say?
(6 drafted/5 FA's)......like

Shea McClellin....rated as the 268th best DL outta HS
     *1st round pick
Doug Martin...293rd best RB...
     *1st rd pick
Tyrone Crawford...81st best DL
     *3rd rd pick by sorry Cowboys....(one of their highest rated recruits)
George Illoka...264th best DB
     *5th rd
Billy Winn...121st DL
    *6th rd
Nate Potter...221st OL
   *7th rd

Free agents Moore (21st)...Baker (365th)...Root (342nd)...Tevis (72nd)....Shoemaker (walk-on)

They take guys that nobody wants...and make NFL players out of 'em 4-5 years later.....nobody else does it better
*numbers given are Steele's PS numbers...meaning an average of 10 or so recruiting services

 *we hear the same thing every year...THIS time you will see what a fraud Boise really is!! just you wait!  like
Georgia...Oregon...Va Tech...Oklahoma.....now Michigan St

This year they have 26 Sr's....few actual starters...but many have played a lot....like WLB JC Percy...never been a regular starter but twice has been their 2nd leading tackler .....st C Yriarte now out?...so what.... Matt Paradis steps in....he ran with #1 unit in spring of 2010....and was called their most impressive OL....
 
No doubt Boise will struggle to move the ball here..
We have NEVER seen Boise manufacture points have we?....  

He may RS if Southwick can play....but they do bring in QB Nick Patti.....who last year was the Florida 8A POY
He was in for the spring...and Peterson called him the most impressive so far ...any shock if he plays here and somehow does very well?....(he was too short to be heavily recruited)

And again....for BOISE...this game is their year....they win ?....the road to a BCS game (POTENTIALLY) is clearly ahead....with only BYU at home...SMiss and Nevada on the road standing in their way

For the Spartans.....sure this is a big game...but meaningless in the path for THEIR goal > the Big 10 title and trip to Rose Bowl 

*Boise has finished in the top 11 ....5 of last 6 years
The last 4 years...they are 5 points away from being 50-0.....think they know how to win?
nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
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Posted: 8/5/2012 6:49:50 PM

agree few coach them up like Boise St...jesus #66 recruiting this year...looking for ML dog with shot to win....Kentucky probably somewhere around +500 ...usually tight series since Petrino left

thorpe PM thorpe
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Posted: 8/5/2012 7:42:20 PM
Here is my list of ML Dogs

Vandy - .  It is possible that SC steamrolls Vandy, but if it is a close game, then I like Vandy to win.  I have Vandy winning 40 to 45 percent.  No bet on the spread, just bet the ML and hope the game is a coinflip.

Akron - obviously I need a huge number, and I like Akron because it is a long way from UCF, and Akron is feeling good about being 0-0. This ML could be +2000 (what is the ML for a home dog of 23.5 points?)  I do not like Akron plus the points

UMASS - Another huge ML number.  UMass travel to UConn is as easy as it gets.  I don't know how many fans UMass will bring, but maybe they have a small contingent for first FBS game.  UConn lost to a MAC team last year in Western Mich.  2 years ago UMass went into Ann Arbor and only lost 42-37, and they lost 21-17 to K St.  Tex Tech and BC both steamrolled UMass.  UMass is not a strong team but it is likely UConn plays down to the level of competition.  I also like this game on the point spread.

Rice - UCLA is not a consistent team.  They should beat Rice, but Rice might have a large edge if the heat is too much for UCLA.  If Prince decides he wants to throw the ball TY he could easily throw 3 picks.  Rice is not a strong team, so I only like this for a fraction of a unit on the ML

Wash St - Leach is coaching up these guys.  Good coaches have always done well in Pullman because there are very few distractions and coaches have the player's 100% attention.  BYU better be ready for Tuel to MArquess Wilson, because he looks like another Crabtree.  BYU is the better team with good coaching too and at home, but the talent levels are comparable.  I like Wash St to win one out of 5. Point spread play at 14.5

Navy - Some teams don't always travel well.  This is as tough travel for a game as I can remember.  But the best teams at travelling are the service academies.  Navy will be ready for this game.  They will have a minority of the fans to start the game, but I think they can win a lot of fans to their cause if the game remains close.  Or is Notre Dame going to travel 50,000 fans?  The game is being played in a Rugby stadium, and Navy is more of a Rugby style team, so I think the local fans will back them.  I like this game on the SPread as well.

Tulane, long trip for Rutgers.  New coach means uncertainity.  Weather could be an issue.  Rutgers has not had a solid showing on the road in two full years (22-24 UNC; 19-17OT Cuse; 14-16 LOUIS; 22-40 UConn; 14-35 WV; 38-69 Cinci; 27-28 USF; 21-41 Pitt; 19-14 FIU)  Not sure about the spread yet.  Rutgers is a lot more talented than Tulane.

Toledo - Toledo only lost to Ohio St 22-27 LY.  That alone makes me think they have a chance at Arizona. I could be wrong here, but I'd throw a fraction of a unit on TOledo.  Arizona is great at home, but that applies more to big games.  Travel could be a big factor for Toledo.  This is more of a hunch than my other picks
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 8/5/2012 7:55:33 PM
thorpe - you've got to be kidding me...maybe a card for the 1st week in November, but not in week 1, my friend...
nickeydyme PM nickeydyme
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Posted: 8/5/2012 7:57:16 PM
Save your money on those dog moneylines, your logic is flawed, you mine as well say every dog ml is a good bet
Posted using a mobile device.
UL-LAFAYETTEKID PM UL-LAFAYETTEKID
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Posted: 8/5/2012 8:25:52 PM
good info  bookie ...it might just be to good ...we may have a hard time getting plus 5 now  my friend........don;t matter like you said this is there super bowl...they may have a letdown vs somebody like nevda late in the season but not week 1...
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 8/5/2012 8:47:19 PM

thorpe - and there will be 45K screaming crazy "real Irish" who will expect "the fighting" to live up to the honor of their name.  ND won 56-14 last year.  Navy will be improved and ND does not have a #1 QB yet and lose Floyd.  ND will be jacked out of their minds.  Again, no insane blowout like last year, but Kelly will have them ready to go.   How can you possibly bet against an Irish American coach of the Fighting Irish playing in Dublin???

LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 8/5/2012 8:48:03 PM

N Dame 42

Navy 17

bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 8/5/2012 9:04:48 PM
the 3 yr record for favorites ATS week 1?
57-60 ATS...57-62 O/U

week 2 > 69-65 ATS
week 3 > 84-68 ATS

FBS vs FCS > 88-91 ATS......36-20 O/U

ML Dogs?
EMich
NC St

then....
Wazzu > Boise > WMich > Ga Tech
then maybe La Tech and Ohio



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