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Author: [College Football] Topic: nostradamus week 1
WISEGUY36 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 8/3/2012 8:54:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

Take Georgia, USC, and Ohio St. and put them in a 3 team 10 point teaser and count your cash! I rarely do teasers in NCAA football but early in the year it really helps with some of these inflated lines. 


Anyone who has to "tease" a parlay still needs to improve their
handicapping skills.You sound like your teams "might win".
Without conviction,it sounds like you need help in confirming
your conviction that the team you've selected will prevail vs the
spread.Select fewer but games that give YOU the edge you need.




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#27
Posted: 8/3/2012 9:33:32 PM
ONBOARD WITH USC AND OKLAHOMA

BOL this year Guy 
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#28
Posted: 8/3/2012 11:10:48 PM
With you on UGA covering -37.5 over Buffalo...not sure i like betting alot of games where i dont value them at 3 units or more...the juice is where they get you, but if you like to parlay or just the action, then betting 7 and 8 games a week is a good idea??
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#29
Posted: 8/3/2012 11:25:38 PM
If you win them all juice shouldnt be a problem though!! GL
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#30
Posted: 8/3/2012 11:29:07 PM

I think 2 opening losses last year for UGA is going to be incentive for a good whooping opening game on a SUB-PAR opponent!

UGA 59

Buffalo 10

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#31
Posted: 8/3/2012 11:52:18 PM
like usc and uk a lot, im sure you will crush again this year
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#32
Posted: 8/4/2012 12:02:39 AM
UGA will garbage the bed...best bet is the under
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#33
Posted: 8/4/2012 12:09:29 AM
UGA will be awful ATS this year and most likely not even win the SEC east....the defense will be good to moderately great but the offense will suck behind....

They are only carrying 69 players and YET AGAIN roster management will play into conservative play calling thus non-production. They will win some games but the hype is very much unfounded.


Play UGA to the UNDER and TERRIBLE ATS.
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#34
Posted: 8/4/2012 3:11:40 AM
Its more a bet against Buffalo than for UGA.. Buffalo looks and plays like a high school team! I agree UGA 8-4 this season with alot of close games!!
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#35
Posted: 8/4/2012 7:06:14 AM

good to see some familar names, appreciate the feedback..BOL fellas

longhorn -Do you think Marshall is the real deal. Does UGA have enough of a inside running game to keep D's honest? Obviously, you are not too concerned about the loss of IC and the AO and the 3 in the secondary...I would prefer UGA -35...What's is forecasted score? I think he could be, not too worried about Crowell...even when down to Harton (who?) last year as last RB he ran for 90+ in two games and they'll be better this year (barring injuries)....secondary depth could be a concern in the 4Q if the bulls have anyone who can take advantage of it...we'll go with 52-7

Should be a blowout, but for some reason, I don't trust Kiffin to prevent a back door cover...will AD HAden clamp down on Kiffin to prevent a blowout since Chow is involved? doubt Haden will get involved, reminds me of the first game with Tenn (big over WKU) where he won't mind running it up, watching highlights of the UH spring game, they look small and slow...uh oh

You have more faith than I do. Ash is a marginal QB when healthy. He has had hamstring issues this summer. Yeah I have those same concerns, the rushing game should work and a few passing plays...they played pretty awful (only 389 yds) in the 34-7 win in '10 in very similar matchup against Wyoming with Gilbert, and believe they're better now at least for RBs and general play calling

This pick intrigues me. Miami burned me last year in week 1 against Misouri and Franklin's 1st start. This is an early game at the shoe. I have no doubt OSU will be pumped for the 1st game under Meyer, but like the Texas example, does B Miller have the ability and the weapons to put up at least 30 on Miami in week 1?  They should be ready, main concern is Miller passing accuracy if they can't run well and questions at RB, Hyde and Smith and frosh Dunn they're all power guys and they need someone to fill the Harvin position to run the jet sweeps with Hall out, still Miller should break a couple and get into the upper 30's..MiaOH defense is pretty good although loses 3 top tacklers and Meyer doesn't want to score in the 20's in opener if he can help it...still the running game isn't good, confidence in Miller isn't that high

wiseguy - a couple things we were looking at with UK-UL was improvement from Maxwell...and even if the offense is horrible again, the fact that even though Bridgewater is getting better that UL won only one game by more than 2 TDs last year (17 vs Cuse) so until show something not really a blowout team

JJ - i'm only concerned with the matchup with Buffalo....hoping the frosh Licata starts...if not Zordich 41% 1-6 TD INT isn't much better...they'll do well to get 10...while UGA OL is thin and secondary (with suspensions) could be a factor late, believe the dogs will run for 200+ and Murray will complete 25-30 before being pulled and get 45-52 pts

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#36
Posted: 8/4/2012 9:25:24 AM

Georgia 52 Buffalo 7 - losing Crowell could be a good thing, getting Marshall more playing time early plus some other capable backs vs 181 ypg run defense, and bulls secondary no match for Murray and WRs....hoping frosh starts, if not Zordich hasn't shown much...closest matchup probably 41-10 vs Tenn last year giving up 541 yds (Bray 342) and scoring their only TD on 68 yd Andersen run....that's about as close as the bulls get if UGA has an off day

USC 55 Hawaii 10 - watching some Hawaii spring game highlights they looked small and slow...uh oh.... Trojans should be ready with high ranking and coming off probation....probably call off the dogs in the 4th...UH hung around a couple years ago in hawaii 49-36 however with new offense and less talent not so much this time

Texas 45 Wyoming 7 - looks like a repeat of the 34-7 matchup a couple years ago, except believe Horns running game is better and play calling, between RBs, wildcat and young WR should score a few points if Ash is not horrible..not a good matchup for Wyoming run defense 232 ypg that will eventually wear down, Smith and offense should have a tough day

Ohio St 41 MiaOH 10 - loss of Hall hurts since OSU has speed back for offense heading into camp, Miller should run some (collaros had 89 LY) and Hyde or Smith (or frosh Dunn) should get some yards against not great run defense 168ypg and a couple young sleepers at WR although not crazy about Miller's passing ability, probably a long day for redhawks offense who didn't do much against decent defenses..3ppg vs Mizzou/Cincy, doubt Meyer wants to lay a 17-6 egg like Mizzou did last year in his opener if he can do anything about it

Oklahoma 52 UTEP 13 - hoping that Brown transfers from PSU since main concern is thin WR, Metoyer and Stills should be ok beyond that though is not much, UTEP passing defense will have problems and running game should work, could hang around in garbage time however believe new DC Stoops will want a decent performance in his opener

Cal 41 Nevada 20 - should be enough Cal players left from '10 that remember the 52-31 beatdown in Reno....Wolfpack defense is mediore and hasn't really hung with many decent teams on the road...Cal needs to do a better job defending rushing yds against pistol, showed some improvement against run last year (132 ypg) and new LB from PSU can only help

UCLA 38 Rice 13 - Bruins should be improved and running game and pistol should be able to run against 188ypg rush defense, Mora will want to do well in his first game...feels similar to Owls matchups at home in '10 against Baylor and NW...losing both 30-13

Tennessee 31 NC State 20 - even though Amerson is awesome the NCS pass defense not that great #61 (224ypg) and Vols WRs should make some plays, Tenn has the better OL and defense pretty solid and #10 against pass

Louisville 23 Kentucky 16 - believe Maxwell and skill positions will be improved for UK....can they be much worse... tight series and UL not winning by this margin since Petrino if I recall, UL only one win more than 2 TDs last year (17 vs Cuse) and that includes Murray St....until they prove they can blow people out, UK defense not that bad at #56 (376ypg) although needs to replace a couple good players

 

 

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#37
Posted: 8/4/2012 9:44:33 AM

able to get part of OU wager on heritage at -30 (-115)...not so lucky on Tenn where the heritage add on was at -4 instead of earlier -3 (hook) at BM...might offset part of OSU wager if any additional RBs get hurt or suspended....I guess Dunn's mom is taking credit for the weed in her car

updated week 1

Georgia -37 (1.75u)

USC -38 (1.75u)

Texas -28 (1.25u)

Ohio St -22.5 (1.25u)

Oklahoma -30 (-115) (half @ -31)

California -11

UCLA -15.5

Tennessee -3 (hook) (half @ -4)

Kentucky +14.5

adding a couple totals later, time to check out some teams not playing lined games until week 2 GL all

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#38
Posted: 8/4/2012 10:33:43 AM
Well I didn't waste any time this year getting my bets
down for Week 1

S. Carolina -61/2
Stanford -26
Alabama -10

Nos,what do you think of these?
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#39
Posted: 8/4/2012 10:42:35 AM
The above are at -110.
I will take Kentucky when I can buy it at +141/2
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#40
Posted: 8/4/2012 4:24:09 PM
Nos... Always a class act

Hope you kill it this year man.
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#41
Posted: 8/4/2012 5:01:14 PM
GA, USC, Oklahoma yezzir. And I agree the GA play is more of a play against Buffalo than it is backing GA.
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#42
Posted: 8/4/2012 8:12:24 PM
Good luck this year, nos!

I'm guessing the odds are against Kiffin calling off the dogs. He may feel they have to score 70 to overcome that ole "east coast bias" & stay in the Natl Championship conversation.


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#43
Posted: 8/4/2012 9:06:24 PM
My man Nos... Sup bro. Hope u kilobit this year!!!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#44
Posted: 8/4/2012 9:06:32 PM
and i think the fact that USC will start the season behind both LSU and Bama in the USA Today coaches poll, will entice him to keep scoring..If USC were #1, then maybe a backdoor cover would be a possibility...
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#45
Posted: 8/5/2012 12:29:34 AM
I kind of like UCLA -15.5 on the road against Rice.     However, a new coach, unsettled at QB on the road against an overmatched, yet intelligent team with a coach in Bailiff is a bit on the hot seat.   I am not saying Rice wins, but they will play hard.   I know Mora is a good coach and they will give Nebraska a game in week 2.  I am just sure if all the ducks will be in a row in week 1 in the heat at Rice on 30 August 2012...
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#46
Posted: 8/5/2012 12:57:22 AM
I don't think I can bet UK at all this year..
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#47
Posted: 8/5/2012 6:44:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

I kind of like UCLA -15.5 on the road against Rice.     However, a new coach, unsettled at QB on the road against an overmatched, yet intelligent team with a coach in Bailiff is a bit on the hot seat.   I am not saying Rice wins, but they will play hard.   I know Mora is a good coach and they will give Nebraska a game in week 2.  I am just sure if all the ducks will be in a row in week 1 in the heat at Rice on 30 August 2012...


I'm looking at UCLA in Week 3 vs Houston.
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#48
Posted: 8/5/2012 10:51:37 AM

You will be happy to hear Nos

Source: Penn St. WR Justin Brown joining OU

Penn State senior wide receiver Justin Brown has told Oklahoma coaches he will transfer and play for the Sooners, a source told ESPN's Joe Schad on Saturday. Brown has one season of eligibility and can play immediately for the Sooners.

about 10 hours ago

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#49
Posted: 8/5/2012 12:42:20 PM

appreciate it fellas, same here, time needs to move a little faster these next couple weeks

wiseguy - lean SC at TD or less....Vandy not really a great home dog over the years and offense hasn't done much vs SC...and would like to get Bama at 10....Stanford should name score however questions is QB on both sides could be the difference ATS...whichever QB plays better

LJ - what's up bud, congrats on the house....good to see you saved enough for the important things...agree Trojans probably realize they need to stay up there close to get ahead of 1 loss SEC...or undefeated from another

capper - yes dammit we'll take it....who knows he might be the one tacking on the last TD

also looks like Smith is back for UGA....always liked that he did a little bit of everything and speed

http://savannahnow.com/sports/2012-08-04/uga-notebook-no-suspension-dawgs-bc-branden-smith

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#50
Posted: 8/5/2012 12:49:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

appreciate it fellas, same here, time needs to move a little faster these next couple weeks

wiseguy - lean SC at TD or less....Vandy not really a great home dog over the years and offense hasn't done much vs SC...and would like to get Bama at 10....Stanford should name score however questions is QB on both sides could be the difference ATS...whichever QB plays better

LJ - what's up bud, congrats on the house....good to see you saved enough for the important things...agree Trojans probably realize they need to stay up there close to get ahead of 1 loss SEC...or undefeated from another

capper - yes dammit we'll take it....who knows he might be the one tacking on the last TD

also looks like Smith is back for UGA....always liked that he did a little bit of everything and speed

http://savannahnow.com/sports/2012-08-04/uga-notebook-no-suspension-dawgs-bc-branden-smith



Thanks for your insight Nos, I'm looking forward to week 1
getting underway.BOL Bro'  Let's get this thing started!!!
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