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Author: [College Football] Topic: Best Bet WEEK 1 NCAAF
Capper007 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag |
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#1
Posted: 7/30/2012 9:47:55 PM

Week 1 Best Bet

West Virgina -22 Over Marshall

Expect a fast paced West Virgina team wear this small slow Marshall team into submission.. I expect the game will be over by halftime!!

Halftime score

WV 45

Marshall 7

Final

West Virgina 63

Marshall 17

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#2
Posted: 7/30/2012 9:52:20 PM

I Expect

Minnesota, New Mexico, and Kansas to have under 3 wins this season!

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#3
Posted: 7/30/2012 10:03:47 PM
best bets i will consider but must look closer are,, la tech +9 or more,, navy +21 or more.. ohio +14 or more,,, north texas 42 or more,, arky st 31 or more,, and boise st 7 or more  ...GL C07
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#4
Posted: 7/30/2012 11:57:17 PM
Hmmm...funny because i have liked marshall since the line came out in april


i guarantee your halftime score is not even close. WV might have 24 at the half at best.

Marshall plays very well in this rivalry game and Wva is in no way going to be focused on this game with the B12 schedule they have this year.


Wva is a fraud in my opinion and will be lucky if they dont lose 4 games This year.


Marshall +22 (i have been locked in since april) and i think this rivalry game is very close.



as far as the season o/u RSW you have,

New mexico is going to be very close. they have two guaranteed wins in Southern Univ. and Texas State and could beat NMSU, and Hawaii

Kansas will struggle to win 3 but have Rice, South Dak State on the schedule so you are saying they dont win a B12 game.

Minnesota should struggle greatly this year.


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#5
Posted: 7/30/2012 11:59:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UL-LAFAYETTEKID:

best bets i will consider but must look closer are,, la tech +9 or more,, navy +21 or more.. ohio +14 or more,,, north texas 42 or more,, arky st 31 or more,, and boise st 7 or more  ...GL C07



agree entirely my friend.

BOL
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#6
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:02:22 AM
Capper007:

Looking at Wva from last year, they ended 10 - 3

Close wins vs.

Maryland 37-31
Rutgers 41-31
Cincinatti 24-21
Pittsburg 21-20
So. Florida 30-27



do you really think this team is very very good, or just very very lucky?

usually when a team has this many close wins, they over achieved and are due for a letdown year, and that is exactly what i expect from Wva this year. 8-4 AT BEST
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#7
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:05:31 AM
agree with the WV play... Marshall is in way over their heads in this game... wouldn't call WVU the best bet, but it's top 5...

absolute best case scenario if you bet Marshall is that you lose by 17, which means a 5 point cover... worst case is WV by 38 or more... spread is off by a full TD, imo...


like some of those plays by UL-Laf... but Navy won't be getting 21... only listed as a 2 TD dog right now...
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#8
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:05:43 AM
you guys are wrong on WV.   this is a rivalry game...you guys are basing your rose colored assessment on the WV- clemson game last year...what is WV's ATS record against Marshall during last 5 years...1-3-1...back WV against at your own peril...
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#9
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:08:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

you guys are wrong on WV.   this is a rivalry game...you guys are basing your rose colored assessment on the WV- clemson game last year...what is WV's ATS record against Marshall during last 5 years...1-3-1...back WV against at your own peril...


  agree entirely. See above posts.

i have been on marshall since april

this WILL be close
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#10
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:09:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

agree with the WV play... Marshall is in way over their heads in this game... wouldn't call WVU the best bet, but it's top 5...

absolute best case scenario if you bet Marshall is that you lose by 17, which means a 5 point cover... worst case is WV by 38 or more... spread is off by a full TD, imo...


like some of those plays by UL-Laf... but Navy won't be getting 21... only listed as a 2 TD dog right now...


In this rivalry game over the last 5 years what have you seen that makes you say that?

what did you see from Wva last year that states they can blow out ANYONE?

they had six SUPER CLOSE WINS, and then the bowl game vs. clemson. which is sticking in your head way too much.

this team is vastly overrated and will be staring 7-5 square in the face.

Marshall +22
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#11
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:21:44 AM
Longhorn... i am basing absolutely NOTHING about this game on what happened in last year's bowl game against Clemson... if i were basing it on that, i would have said i was basing it on that... do not ever put words in my mouth!  it pisses me off!

JDNMoney... as a general rule, i couldn't give a rats behind about what has happened between two teams the previous 5 years... it doesn't make a shitstains worth of difference in THIS YEAR's game... however, i think your assessment that this is a "rivalry" is pretty far-fetched... considering the following...

WVU has beaten Marshall 11 times out of 11 times... by an average of 29 points... the game last year would have been another 28 point win if not for the fact that the game was cut short early in the 4th quarter due to lightning...

whether or not WV is "vastly overrated" and "staring 7-5 square in the face" doesn't mean garbage in this game... because Marshall is not going to account for one of those 5 losses, and when WV beats up on teams, they don't let up...

Marshall is in over their heads, i assure you... if you bet Marshall, your best case scenario is going to be a by-the-skin-of-your-teeth cover that you will be sweating until the last play of the game... whereas, when i bet WV, my best case scenario is that i have this spread covered by halftime...


you do it your way, i'll do it mine...
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#12
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:23:35 AM
FYI... do not ever make the mistake of assuming that i am wagering on a game without breaking it down into tiny pieces...
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#13
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:28:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

Longhorn... i am basing absolutely NOTHING about this game on what happened in last year's bowl game against Clemson...THEN WHAT ARE YOU BASING IT ON? BECAUSE WVA IS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERHYPED IN MY OPINION if i were basing it on that, i would have said i was basing it on that... do not ever put words in my mouth!  it pisses me off!

JDNMoney... as a general rule, i couldn't give a rats behind about what has happened between two teams the previous 5 years... it doesn't make a shitstains worth of difference in THIS YEAR's game...USUALLY I AGREE, HOWEVER IT DOES HAVE RELEVANCE WHEN YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT WVA FAILS TO COVER THE NUMBER VS MARSHALL BECAUSE THEY ARE OVERHYPED AND OVERRATED AND EVERYONE EXPECTS THEM TO SMASH MARSHALL OUT OF THE BUILDING  however, i think your assessment that this is a "rivalry" is pretty far-fetched... considering the following...

WVU has beaten Marshall 11 times out of 11 times... by an average of 29 points... the game last year would have been another 28 point win if not for the fact that the game was cut short early in the 4th quarter due to lightning...ABSOLUTELY NO WAY OF KNOWING THAT BECAUSE THE GAME HAD OVER 4 HOURS OF DELAYS, SO NEITHER TEAM WAS ABLE TO SHOW THEIR TRUE COLORS

whether or not WV is "vastly overrated" and "staring 7-5 square in the face" doesn't mean garbage in this game...YES IT DOES, OR THE SPREAD WOULD NOT BE 22 POINTS because Marshall is not going to account for one of those 5 losses, and when WV beats up on teams, they don't let up...

Marshall is in over their heads, i assure you... if you bet Marshall, your best case scenario is going to be a by-the-skin-of-your-teeth cover that you will be sweating until the last play of the game... whereas, when i bet WV, my best case scenario is that i have this spread covered by halftime...I ASSURE YOU, WVA WILL NOT HAVE THE NUMBER COVERED BY HALFTIME, AND THIS GAME WILL BE CLOSE THROUGHOUT.


you do it your way, i'll do it mine...
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#14
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:29:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

FYI... do not ever make the mistake of assuming that i am wagering on a game without breaking it down into tiny pieces...


FYI: dont make the mistake of realizing that you arent the ONLY ONE who knows what they are talking about.


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#15
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:38:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:


you do it your way, i'll do it mine...


My way was 83-60 Last Year 58.05% ATS
YOUR way was 38-36 Last Year 51.35% ATS



I believe i know what i am doing. Betting twice as many games as you and picking at a higher %...

you are not Gods gift to gambling, so cut the garbage, guy.

you have been doing this all summer.



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#16
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:43:27 AM
It's a rivalry game in the eyes of the team getting 22 points. Not a rivalry game in the eyes of the team looking ahead to their first year in the Big 12. I'll take the 22!
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#17
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:44:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BoiseState25:

It's a rivalry game in the eyes of the team getting 22 points. Not a rivalry game in the eyes of the team looking ahead to their first year in the Big 12. I'll take the 22!




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#18
Posted: 7/31/2012 1:03:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:





you are not Gods gift to gambling, so cut the garbage, guy.

you have been doing this all summer.






who the darn do you think you are?


i made my argument... you made yours... the game will do the talking... but i didn't disrespect you... so you're the one who needs to "cut the garbage"... and you are the one who has been "doing this garbage all summer"...


where the darn do you come up with me going 38-36 last year?  that's a big load of crap!  you're not going to see me putting words into your mouth, or lying about your record, or disrespecting you simply because you don't agree with my play... so don't do those things to me...


if you don't like my opinions... don't read them... i inform people for their benefit... it's not my fault if they don't want to listen... but i say it like it is... if that's a problem, i suggest you get the darn over it and move on...

i promise you, the first 3 weeks of CFB are MY BABY... and whatever your record last year or any other year, you can't top me this time of year... if you don't want to listen, so be it... but you do it at your own peril...
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#19
Posted: 7/31/2012 1:21:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:




who the darn do you think you are?


i made my argument... you made yours... the game will do the talking... but i didn't disrespect you... so you're the one who needs to "cut the garbage"... and you are the one who has been "doing this garbage all summer"...


where the darn do you come up with me going 38-36 last year?  that's a big load of crap!  you're not going to see me putting words into your mouth, or lying about your record, or disrespecting you simply because you don't agree with my play... so don't do those things to me...


if you don't like my opinions... don't read them... i inform people for their benefit... it's not my fault if they don't want to listen... but i say it like it is... if that's a problem, i suggest you get the darn over it and move on...

i promise you, the first 3 weeks of CFB are MY BABY... and whatever your record last year or any other year, you can't top me this time of year... if you don't want to listen, so be it... but you do it at your own peril...



Start here: Post #19, 11/28 5.15am

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100892990


Then on Tuesday, Nov. 29th you posted this just a day later
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100899895

mysteriously adding 4 wins and 3 losses to the CFB record, even tho im sure there werent 7 games played on that monday.

Post 29 states that the overall record was 40-36 but i guess it was actually 36-33,52.17%

 my bad
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#20
Posted: 7/31/2012 1:29:00 AM
CORRECTION:

THIS RECORD OF 36-33 WAS FROM 2 YEARS AGO


last year you didnt post anything in the CFB forum, so your record was 0-0

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#21
Posted: 7/31/2012 1:51:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

CORRECTION:

THIS RECORD OF 36-33 WAS FROM 2 YEARS AGO


last year you didnt post anything in the CFB forum, so your record was 0-0




so first you are accusing me of fabricating wins (in your previous post)... then you are saying that because i didn't post anything in this forum last year, that my record is 0-0...


once again, i didn't disrespect you... don't disrespect me!


i can make this promise to you... by the end of this year, many more people will give a garbage what i have to say, then what you have to say, regardless of our records... because what i have to say isn't an emotion-laden ball of crap!  i base what i say on facts, and well-reasoned arguments... like the ones in this thread, as compared to yours...

my record last year, needless to say, was not 0-0... but my record from 2010 was 40-36, and that was my worst record in CFB in the last 6 years...

can you say that?


to recap... i stated that i liked WV... you asked what i have seen in the last 5 years to make me like WV, and claimed that i only like them because of the bowl game... i said my pick has nothing to do with the bowl game, and pointed out that in 11 meetings, WV has won all 11 meetings, by an average of 29 points (in the world of statistics, or sampling, a larger sample means a more valid sample... so where you were arguing that a 5 game sample shows that Marshall is a better play, i trumped you by showing that an 11 game sample shows WV is a better play)... you then went on a ridiculous tirade in which you disrespected me, lied about my record last year, and dismissed my pick on this game with such arguments as "WV is overrated" and "I assure you this game will be close throughout"... but it was effective because you used huge bold caps lettering...


yea... we'll be paying close attention to what you have to say this year...




and once again... you just said, "last year you didn't post anything in the CFB forum, so your record was 0-0"...


i wasn't at all aware that every bet that every person makes was supposed to be documented in this forum, otherwise it doesn't count... now i know!



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#22
Posted: 7/31/2012 2:21:10 AM

 Pathetic JD diggin through somebody history to compile their record.  If you did that to my history I would be less than 35%.

I actually agree with Marshall being the play.  I like Cato at QB and think Doc Holliday is solid coach.  As well, anything can happen in these in state games.

Its just that seeing as Marshall couldn't close the deal in 2010 after having the game wrapped, I don't think WV takes them lightly.  This is a no play for me.

 

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#23
Posted: 7/31/2012 5:38:04 AM
excluding Norfolk St WV hit 37pts+ in 4 of 12, you'd think it was more often....no lean on game...WV going over lately (9-4 LY) although linesmaker is catching up..guess total would be around 60
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#24
Posted: 7/31/2012 5:38:59 AM
well maybe even 63-64
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#25
Posted: 7/31/2012 9:31:05 AM
hey jdnmoney ever since i been here on covers u think u know it all.. i dont know u personally and i dont wish u bad but damn u think u never wrong bro u a fkn perfect man. like u said u were 58% last year not 100 apo% which means ur fkn human and u have losses just like anyone else buddy so u need to cut da garbage myman.. as for the wv/marsh gm.. im with apocalypselater.. i like WV.. I do agree that they are overrated  i give u that but like AL stated that will not play a factor in this particular game.. WV Blasts marshall remember that.. in fact lets remember this thread after the game is over.. aite nothing personal but u aint a damn sidekick either mr. knowitall.. knowitall are for women bro comon man
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