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[College Football] Topic: NCAA College Football WEEK 1 |
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jdnmoney |
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#26 Posted: 7/31/2012 11:48:47 PM
TEXAS A&M vs LA TECH
A&M -8.5
O/U 60
Texas A&M
finished last year with a disappointing 7-6 record and they were just
4-9 ATS last year. They lost their best player in Ryan Tannehill to the
NFL Draft and are going to struggle to replace him. Currently battling
for the spot are redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel, r-Fr Jameill Showers
(5 career pass attempts) and freshman Matt Davis. Inexperience will no
doubt be a factor for A&M QB's throughout this season, although it
may not show as badly until SEC play. On the offensive line, A&M
returns 95 career starts. They are very experienced on the O-line which
should protect the QB. they also return two good WR's in Ryan Swope and
Uzoma Nwachukwu, both had very productive seasons last year. swope had
1207 yds last year and Nwachukwu had 639. A&M has a r-Fr kicker.
On
D- A&M loses two 300lb D-Tackles. They also lose three in the
secondary that already struggled to defend the pass last year. They
should be ok at LB, with Three seniors returning, all with experience.
They have a Sophomore Punter.
A&M also has a new coach in Kevin Sumlin, coming over from Houston.
LaTech
is returning Sr. QB Colby Cameron, who struggled last year and
eventually lost the job to ross Jenkins, who is no longer there. They
have a few other guys who will compete to push Cameron, and with the
return of 4 quality WR's, the QB play should get much better in 2012.
The 4 receivers of mention are Myles White, David Gru, DJ Banks (Tulane
Transfer), and Quinton Patton. each of these guys is capable of catching
passes for 1000 yards in the WAC this year. This is the best WR group
Sonny Dykes has had in three years at La Tech and the best in a while.
La La Tech also returns 92 career starts on the O-Line and 9 of the top
10 contributors. The o-line is very experienced and should give the QB
time to analyze any Defense A&M throws out there.
La
Tech will have a mediocre D-Line, which returns two starters. their
secondary will be solid, with the return of Chad Boyd and seniors Jamel
Johnson and Dave Clark. This Secondary should be better than last years,
although the numbers may not reflect that. The front four are going to
struggle to get pressure on the QB.
I
really feel like the in-experience of the QB for Texas A&M will
keep La Tech very much in this game. La Tech should be able to move the
football on offense and should put up points. Both QB's should be
protected with veteran O-Lines and drives should not stall because of
sacks or pressure picks. Texas A&M has put up 46,48 and 41 points
in their last three season openers. The last time they played La Tech,
the spread was 19 in favor of A&M and the final was 48-16 A&M.
If the o/u is around 58, i would lean over.
OVER 60...
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jdnmoney |
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#27 Posted: 8/1/2012 12:39:24 AM
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This will be my largest wager of Week 1 and the total comes in a full touchdown lower than i projected it to be. Oregon returns 11 starters overall (6o, 5d) including 65 career starts on the OL (8 of the top 10 back) and some very athletic receivers. I think Oregon will have no issues on offense running their fast paced attack, and their ground game will excel greatly in this matchup with ArkSt.
Defensively Oregon is sporting a very highly touted defensive line, and an average secondary with three of the top 5 guys back. they have very athletic safeties, but are very inexperienced at corner, with two projected sophomores as starters. they have solid special teams units and should have several big plays with this unit on the field.
ArkSt returns 4 yr starter Ryan Aplin at QB, and they are going to look to spread the football around to a very experienced bevy of wide receievers. they have Josh Jarboe, Taylor Stockemer, and some very capable backups that should be able to expose oregons suspect corner play. Ark St's Offensive line is very inexperienced and might struggle to sustain drives after the 1st half, causing short fields and easy 2nd Half oregon touchdowns.
Defensively ark state returns only 4 starters and have alot of holes to fill. they are looking to replace 3 starters on the DL and are using 4 guys who played NJUCO ball last year to do so. at Linebacker, they lose thier top two and their secondary is very inexperienced as they lose 3 all conference DB's. oregon should see some BIG plays in the passing game after they establish an effective run attack.
Initially i really liked arkansas state (projected spread was 28.5, now 33) but i think oregon might overwhelm this team and mistakes and unsustainable drives could lead to a very high scoring day for oregon. I look for the ducks to put up at least 52 points in this game, and if they score as quick as they have the last two years, they might be in the 60's. similar to the game last year vs. nevada, BIG plays, Turnovers, and short fields might lead to a blowout here.
55-19 Oregon WINS
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UL-LAFAYETTEKID |
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#28 Posted: 8/1/2012 8:28:51 PM  BIG........ |
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jdnmoney |
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#29 Posted: 8/3/2012 9:32:29 PM  |
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LonghornHoosier |
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#30 Posted: 8/3/2012 9:49:01 PM http://www.goducks.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=500&SPID=233&SPSID=3377
The Oregon v. Ark State game on 1 Sep 2012 starts at 7:30 PST...
Does anyone haev any stats on Oregon's covering ATS in night games at Auzen? Does it make a difference like it does at LSU? Thanks in advance. |
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UL-LAFAYETTEKID |
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#31 Posted: 8/3/2012 10:58:10 PM  longhornhoosier for that info...season opener at night in auzen stadium and arky st. has only 4 starters returning on D....with the ducks fast paced no huddle O...well this could get ugly in a hurry........ |
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LonghornHoosier |
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#32 Posted: 8/3/2012 11:03:42 PM UL - also another angle - who was the OC of the Auburn Tigers who defeated Oregon for the 2010 NC...that's right Gus Malzahn...
Here are my concerns...Oregon gave up 31 to UCLA in the PAC XII C Game...some say this is Kelly's best O, but do you think the Oregon O will score enough points to offset say 14 to 20 that Ark St may score...in addition, Ark St has been a giant killer ATS including my Horns and a straight up win over Texas A&M a few years ago...is it possible that the young Ark St will play topugh enough to at least slow down Oregon. Do we know yet who will be the Oregon QB? I will see if I can find the W/L and ATS stat on Oregon for say the last 5 years at night. I will send it to you privately if that's ok.
Also, it appears the LSU line is coming down from 45 to 43.5. If it gets down to 43 I may buy the point down to 42. What is your take on LSU v N Texas? |
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Mikeyyy |
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#33 Posted: 8/3/2012 11:06:21 PM
Question: playing the ducks first half to cover the points...good idea or bad idea and why? |
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casheasy |
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#34 Posted: 8/4/2012 1:29:22 AM |
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UL-LAFAYETTEKID |
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#35 Posted: 8/4/2012 2:44:45 PM |
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jdnmoney |
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#36 Posted: 8/4/2012 3:38:45 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier: UL - also another angle - who was the OC of the Auburn Tigers who defeated Oregon for the 2010 NC...that's right Gus Malzahn...
Here are my concerns...Oregon gave up 31 to UCLA in the PAC XII C Game...some say this is Kelly's best O, but do you think the Oregon O will score enough points to offset say 14 to 20 that Ark St may score...in addition, Ark St has been a giant killer ATS including my Horns and a straight up win over Texas A&M a few years ago...is it possible that the young Ark St will play topugh enough to at least slow down Oregon. Do we know yet who will be the Oregon QB? I will see if I can find the W/L and ATS stat on Oregon for say the last 5 years at night. I will send it to you privately if that's ok.
Also, it appears the LSU line is coming down from 45 to 43.5. If it gets down to 43 I may buy the point down to 42. What is your take on LSU v N Texas?
if you even think ark state will score 14-20 (which i do) than this o/u looks like a cash cow. I think Oregon will score at least 51 in this game, and Ark state should keep it within the number. OVER 65 is the play. this should be closer to 75-78
OVER OVER OVER
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jdnmoney |
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#37 Posted: 8/4/2012 3:44:31 PM
BEST CASE for Oregon: 63-14
BEST CASE for Ark St: 49-31
OVER the total either way!
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jdnmoney |
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#38 Posted: 8/5/2012 12:35:50 AM |
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jdnmoney |
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#39 Posted: 8/5/2012 12:38:43 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney: LOCKED IN (Week 1)   
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Marshall +22
Washington State +13
UCF -21
Texas A&M vs La Tech Over 60
Oklahoma -30
ARK ST vs OREGON OVER 65 MONSTER PLAY 3 Units
SMU +13
USC -39
North Texas +45.5
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jdnmoney |
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#40 Posted: 8/6/2012 5:16:20 PM
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bonilla420 |
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#41 Posted: 8/6/2012 11:14:30 PM  San jose state |
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bonilla420 |
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#42 Posted: 8/6/2012 11:15:00 PM |
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QBoption |
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#43 Posted: 8/7/2012 12:06:37 AM he's a big jerk tryn to fade my plays, but he dont know is that i did ALL my homework on my plays...what a girl...
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jdnmoney |
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#44 Posted: 8/7/2012 7:31:47 PM
get off ur high horse you chump...
and Bonilla I've never seen you post a winning pick, a season record, and useful insight, just whine and complain, freaking out like a clueless useless newbie who has absolutely no clue what he is doing...
BOL this year guys, but if you don't believe in what I'm doing here (58.05% LY, 56.33% 2Yr ago) then just stay the hell outta here.
I'm tired of pissing around with cappers who don't track a season record, don't post picks, and have no useful insight...
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jdnmoney |
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#45 Posted: 8/7/2012 7:33:56 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bonilla420: jdn whats ur upsession with san jose state? lol they suck bro get another team for crist sake...... San jose state
this is exactly what Vegas wants you to think... however San Jose state is going to be the Utah state of week 1 last year in my opinion. Stanford gets exposed this year and ends up winning by 10... |
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estes1717 |
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#46 Posted: 8/7/2012 7:40:33 PM  |
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QBoption |
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#47 Posted: 8/7/2012 7:43:09 PM im tired of keyboard bullies like YOU,
talking garbage about me passing around misinformation...
...what i do with my post is my bizz, you sound stupid tryn to judge me...
...YOUR ATS record does not give you a license to garbage my thread...
...ur THE CHUMP, U r the definition of chump, its obvi. just by ur avatar..happy behind, u wish u were that guy, ha ha ha...
...truth be told tho, i can kick ur behind in real life, so if im a chump then what does that make you? |
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#48 Posted: 8/7/2012 7:44:15 PM punk |
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#49 Posted: 8/7/2012 7:44:25 PM |
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#50 Posted: 8/7/2012 7:44:34 PM |
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