Messages

Forum Index : Covers College Football : Messages Page 1 of 8  1 2 3 4 5   »
Author: [College Football] Topic: Alabama / Michigan Predictions
Capper007
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag |
Capper007
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 6909
Location: United States
#1
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:10:47 PM

The first big game of the season!!

At The Cowboys stadium 

Line Opens @Alabama -11

My Prediction

Alabama 24

Michigan 17

quote
gridironguy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
gridironguy
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 5296
Location:
#2
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:11:56 PM
close game, within the spread i think, i am with you Capper,

i am thinking Michigan finesse game plays right into Bama D strength though, even though bama has alota youth,

Bama by 9 is my pick
quote
packers1992 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
packers1992
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 9236
Location: Michigan
#3
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:21:31 PM
I honestly have no clue about the game. Its better to face Bama early than late. Probably no bet for me.If Michigan does win vs bama the air force game scares me.
quote
SatNightFever05 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SatNightFever05
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 3467
Location: California
#4
Posted: 7/18/2012 1:09:12 PM
31-17 Bama

quote
2020dr
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: South Point |
2020dr
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 441
Location: Texas
#5
Posted: 7/18/2012 2:03:12 PM
MICHIGAN +11
quote
Laroja
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
Laroja
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 10501
Location: Ontario
#6
Posted: 7/18/2012 5:12:18 PM

Alabama- 41

Michigan-13

quote
jimmydafreak send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
jimmydafreak
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 11988
Location: United States
#7
Posted: 7/18/2012 6:15:14 PM

Very little chance of Michigan finding the end zone in this game.  Margin of victory will probably fall in the 4-5 TD range.  I'll say 38-6.

 

quote
Boom_Boom send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Boom_Boom
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 15917
Location: South Carolina
#8
Posted: 7/18/2012 6:41:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Very little chance of Michigan finding the end zone in this game.  Margin of victory will probably fall in the 4-5 TD range.  I'll say 38-6.

 

Jimmy you and I have always seemed to be on the same page about most things. But Michigan not finding the endzone is ludicrous. Is Alabama very good? Of course they are....there depth is amazing right now. We both know that recruiting goes hand in hand in college football and none do it better then Saban....but I just cant entertain the idea of this game being a blowout. I really feel as tho getting Alabama early like this plays right into the hands of Michigan. Doesn't mean Michigan will win.....but what it does mean is the game IMO will be much closer then most think. I see this as a 4 quarter game.........just my opinion.    
quote
jdnmoney
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdnmoney
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9120
Location: United States
#9
Posted: 7/18/2012 7:59:03 PM
BOOM BOOM


agreed...and i hope so considering I will be there in the premium seats!
quote
cherokee10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
cherokee10
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 4362
Location: Ohio
#10
Posted: 7/18/2012 9:07:33 PM

Bama by 20

quote
Corley1011 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Corley1011
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 892
Location: Mississippi
#11
Posted: 7/18/2012 9:32:51 PM
Alabama 34

Michigan 17
quote
buddygurt send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
buddygurt
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 1702
Location:
#12
Posted: 7/19/2012 3:28:41 AM
i see a low scoring Bama win 23-17ish
quote
Rollbama1237 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: The Quad |
Rollbama1237
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 359
Location: Iceland
#13
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:27:54 AM
Unless Michigan finds a QB who can throw, this game will not be close. Shoelace has had great success running against slower Big 12 defenses...that is the antithesis of the Bama defense. There are several 270lb DEs and LBs on Bama's roster who can run stride for stride with Robinson.

Secondary will be the weakness this season. I worry about Bama against Arkansas and LSU (with Mettenberger), and even to a point Tennessee if Bray can stay healthy. But Michigan is going to a run into a buzzsaw in the Bama front 7.

Should be ugly from both offenses with 6 months off...

Bama 27
Michigan 7
quote
BamaPiks send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetLegends.eu |
BamaPiks
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 461
Location: Alabama
#14
Posted: 7/19/2012 10:53:29 AM
24-10 Bama.

DR will have little chance getting past the D. Even if he makes it to the second layer...it is full of speed and those guys got a decent amount of PT last year.

I'm not worried about his accuracy or arm strength. I could see routes being jumped if he is forced to throw...and Saban WILL force him to throw!!
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
fsutomahawk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
fsutomahawk
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 3098
Location: Congo
#15
Posted: 7/19/2012 11:27:33 AM
I will surely be teasing Michigan up in some form come gameday. I think they have a good shot to cover the 11, but I really feel strong they can cover 18. 
quote
jimmydafreak send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
jimmydafreak
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 11988
Location: United States
#16
Posted: 7/19/2012 11:30:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rollbama1237:

Unless Michigan finds a QB who can throw, this game will not be close. Shoelace has had great success running against slower Big 12 defenses...that is the antithesis of the Bama defense. There are several 270lb DEs and LBs on Bama's roster who can run stride for stride with Robinson.

Secondary will be the weakness this season. I worry about Bama against Arkansas and LSU (with Mettenberger), and even to a point Tennessee if Bray can stay healthy. But Michigan is going to a run into a buzzsaw in the Bama front 7.

Should be ugly from both offenses with 6 months off...

Bama 27
Michigan 7

Dude DR has world-class speed.  Alabama's defense will be very fast to be sure, but there is nobody that can run with Denard.  The trick is not to get into a foot race with him.

Furthermore, if you think the secondary will be a weakness, you really need to spend more time following your team.  It is true that Alabama does not have a Mark Barron quality strong safety . . . yet, but they are improved at every other secondary position.  The secondary WILL NOT be a weakness.

 

quote
Rollbama1237 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: The Quad |
Rollbama1237
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 359
Location: Iceland
#17
Posted: 7/19/2012 4:27:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Dude DR has world-class speed.  Alabama's defense will be very fast to be sure, but there is nobody that can run with Denard.  The trick is not to get into a foot race with him.

Furthermore, if you think the secondary will be a weakness, you really need to spend more time following your team.  It is true that Alabama does not have a Mark Barron quality strong safety . . . yet, but they are improved at every other secondary position.  The secondary WILL NOT be a weakness.


Denard is fast for sure; however, Big Ten defenses simply don't have the kind of athletes that SEC defenses do. Put a lot of Florida kids in Denard's spot and they have a similar kind of success.

As for the secondary, I heard the same things in '10: Saban is a mastermind in the secondary, Alabama has elite athleticism so experience is negligible, etc etc. Then I saw Stephen Garcia have a field day against us. Then I saw Jordan Jefferson look like a competent QB. Then of course there was Cam Newton and the 2nd half collapse.

Not only is there no Barron, there is no Dre Kirkpatrick or Dequan Menzie (underrated loss). I don't trust Milliner at CB and as of now we don't know who will start at the other corner. So we'll see. I tend to think we'll have an extremely tough time stopping Mettenberger, Wilson and maybe even Bray or James Franklin, who had a great 1st season as a starter. Difference of opinion.

quote
mtp104 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
mtp104
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1164
Location: Illinois
#18
Posted: 7/19/2012 4:29:33 PM
Rollbama,
Talk about delusional! Omg! 270 pound lineman running stride for stride with denard! Do people forget big ten does not get owned by sec! Numbers dont lie! All that speed is bullshit! What matters is oline and d line! Thats where the sec is above and beyond other conferences! Rollbama. You my friend are a freakin moron! Denard has what u call world call speed! Olympic type speed! Wake up dude ure lineman arent that fast! Wake up! Your defense lasy season had big dudes! They werent necessarily freakishly fast! Thats all in ure head! Bama fans better wake the fuk up michigan is better than most sec teams! This will be no pushover! Why u think they play the fukin game! Fuk bama and dumb asss sec fans! Im tired of the crap! Michigan this past decade and every other decade owns SEC teams! Caseclosed! What u got to say girl!
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
mtp104 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
mtp104
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1164
Location: Illinois
#19
Posted: 7/19/2012 4:30:07 PM
Class
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
jimmydafreak send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
jimmydafreak
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 11988
Location: United States
#20
Posted: 7/19/2012 4:47:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

Jimmy you and I have always seemed to be on the same page about most things. But Michigan not finding the endzone is ludicrous. Is Alabama very good? Of course they are....there depth is amazing right now. We both know that recruiting goes hand in hand in college football and none do it better then Saban....but I just cant entertain the idea of this game being a blowout. I really feel as tho getting Alabama early like this plays right into the hands of Michigan. Doesn't mean Michigan will win.....but what it does mean is the game IMO will be much closer then most think. I see this as a 4 quarter game.........just my opinion.    

You're overthinking it.  As I have said before, this game (in terms of Michigan's offense vs. Alabama's defense) is almost identical to the national championship game, except Mighigan is not nearly as talented as LSU.  Everything I said about the national championship game applies to this game as well.

All of Alabama's defensive players that will start in this game (except maybe 1 CB) spent 45 days preparing for LSU's offense, and all played significant snaps in that game.  They will spend another week or two this fall preparing to face another one-dimensional offense that is very similar to the one they just shutout.

Let's start at the begining.  Will Michigan be able to consistently run the ball against Alabama.  LSU couldn't do it, and they are far more powerful at the point of attack than Michigan.  Granted Alabama does lose some beef with Hightower and Upshaw subtracted fron their defensive front 7.  The linebackers that will fill their shoes will not be as big and beefy as Hightower and Upshaw, but will be faster and more athletic.  There really isn't probably a team in the country that can run against Alabama's NFL-like front 7, and Michigan certainly won't be an exception.

I repeatedly hammered home the point that for LSU to have any chance to beat Alabama in the national championship game, Jordan Jeffereson would have to be able to make plays downfield in the passing game.  I said if he couldn't (and my opinion was that he couldn't), then it's basically lights out for LSU.  I went on to opine that the only shot that LSU had of scoring a touchdown in the game would be by some sort of a long 30 yards plus type of play, or a non-offensive TD.  I went on to say that I would not be shocked if LSU were shutout.

Now everything I just said about LSU is 100% relevant to this game.  Like LSU Michigan won't be able to run the ball (and that includes DR).  So then what are they left with???  You guessed it.  Michigan's entire offensive output relying on DR to make plays in the passing game.

That's not going to happen for two reasons.  First, Alabama's front 7 versus Michigans o-line is a mismatch.  Yes, Michigan's o-line has some pretty stout bookends, but the are soft in the middle.  Second, Michigan's WRs versus Alabama seconday is also a mismatch in favor of Alabama.  I think Michigan's best chance to move the ball will be to work their backs and tight ends against the linebackers (kind of like what Alabama did against LSU) although I think they'll have minimal success doing that too.

Al Borges is a script guy.  That means Michigan's first 15 (or so) will be scripted.  I have tremondous respect for Borges.  In fact I was rooting for him to get Alabama's vacant OC position.  I think those first 15 (or so) scripted plays will be key for Michigan.  If Michigan's offense does score a TD in this game, I think it'll be during this scripted portion of their game plan.

As we all know, anything can happen in a football game.  Could DR break a long run for a TD???  Sure he could.  Could DR hit a long pass play???  Absolutely.  Can Michigan's offense start with a short field a time or two???  Sure they can.  Can they score a non-offense TD.  The answer is yes.  Yes, all of these things are possible, but none a probably, and betting is all about probability.  Even if one of these things were to occur, I don't think it'll be nearly enough to keep them competitive in this game.

The bottom line is if Michigan can't score TDs, and I don't think they can, the chances are overwhelming that this game won't be close.  I think the best shot Michigan has of covering this game is for them to get a Herculean-type performace out of thier defense and hold Alabama to 24 or less points.  If that happens Michigan may have a chance to keep the game within 2 TDs.  I, however, think Alabama will flirt with the 40-point mark in this game which will kill any chance for a Michigan cover.

If the line stays under 2 TDs, this is the easist bet on the board in week 1.

 

quote
nickeydyme send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Hard Rock |
nickeydyme
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 692
Location: Nevada
#21
Posted: 7/19/2012 4:51:14 PM
@mtp out of that entire babble rambling "class" was what you chose to correct...lollll
quote
mtp104 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
mtp104
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1164
Location: Illinois
#22
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:36:51 PM
Rollbama,
Talk about delusional! Omg! 270 pound lineman running stride for stride with denard! Do people forget big ten does not get owned by sec! Numbers dont lie! All that speed is bullshit! What matters is oline and d line! Thats where the sec is above and beyond other conferences! Rollbama. You my friend are a freakin moron! Denard has what u call world call speed! Olympic type speed! Wake up dude ure lineman arent that fast! Wake up! Your defense lasy season had big dudes! They werent necessarily freakishly fast! Thats all in ure head! Bama fans better wake the fuk up michigan is better than most sec teams! This will be no pushover! Why u think they play the fukin game! Fuk bama and dumb asss sec fans! Im tired of the crap! Michigan this past decade and every other decade owns SEC teams! Caseclosed! What u got to say girl!
Nickeydyme,
I got a master's. I can don't give a garbage about my mobile verbage and sentence structure! Im a yankee i got a great edamacation!
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
SatNightFever05 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SatNightFever05
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 3467
Location: California
#23
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:40:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

You're overthinking it.  As I have said before, this game (in terms of Michigan's offense vs. Alabama's defense) is almost identical to the national championship game, except Mighigan is not nearly as talented as LSU. 



Except the fact that those Bama defenders are now in the NFL..

Not saying Bama isn't talented, nor am I thinking this game will be close...

Could you explain the difference between this year's defense and the one in 2010 after it lost all those players to the NFL as well?

I just remember you spouting the same stuff when Bama was traveling to Arkansas, claiming they'd win by like 30 when a few of us were all over the Hogs and a TD+

Now, that D ended up to be #6 in the country, so no doubt they were still solid by the end of the year- but Denard should be able to find the end zone a couple times simply because I'm not sold on the Bama defenders being able to attack at the right angles, be in the right positions, etc. as that grows as you mature in a player- and you mature as a playing by playing in more and more games.

With all that said- 34-17 or there abouts sounds about right for Bama


quote
mtp104 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
mtp104
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1164
Location: Illinois
#24
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:57:23 PM
Jimmy,
You are sounding a little bit like a know it all! Bama fans are in for a tough season these are college kids not professionals! Denard will get in zone! Lsu shoukd not be compared to michigan! Defensivley or offensively not even a comparison! If thats how u are capping the game then u are fooling yourself! Lsu coaches suck! Borges and hoke are better than miles and whoever! Jefferson is also crap and has none of the intangibles that denard has! Michigan is much more mature! Maybe you should get off the bama juice! Michigans running back is also better! Michigans o line during vt game was hurt! Molk almost didint play and did bc hes a beast, comparing lsu kids to michigan kids is ridiculous! Junior hemongway coukd arguably be better last season than any bama or lsu receiver! Jimmy i promise you are in for a surprise!
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
Boom_Boom send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Boom_Boom
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 15917
Location: South Carolina
#25
Posted: 7/19/2012 6:10:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

You're overthinking it.  As I have said before, this game (in terms of Michigan's offense vs. Alabama's defense) is almost identical to the national championship game, except Mighigan is not nearly as talented as LSU.  Everything I said about the national championship game applies to this game as well.

All of Alabama's defensive players that will start in this game (except maybe 1 CB) spent 45 days preparing for LSU's offense, and all played significant snaps in that game.  They will spend another week or two this fall preparing to face another one-dimensional offense that is very similar to the one they just shutout.

Let's start at the begining.  Will Michigan be able to consistently run the ball against Alabama.  LSU couldn't do it, and they are far more powerful at the point of attack than Michigan.  Granted Alabama does lose some beef with Hightower and Upshaw subtracted fron their defensive front 7.  The linebackers that will fill their shoes will not be as big and beefy as Hightower and Upshaw, but will be faster and more athletic.  There really isn't probably a team in the country that can run against Alabama's NFL-like front 7, and Michigan certainly won't be an exception.

I repeatedly hammered home the point that for LSU to have any chance to beat Alabama in the national championship game, Jordan Jeffereson would have to be able to make plays downfield in the passing game.  I said if he couldn't (and my opinion was that he couldn't), then it's basically lights out for LSU.  I went on to opine that the only shot that LSU had of scoring a touchdown in the game would be by some sort of a long 30 yards plus type of play, or a non-offensive TD.  I went on to say that I would not be shocked if LSU were shutout.

Now everything I just said about LSU is 100% relevant to this game.  Like LSU Michigan won't be able to run the ball (and that includes DR).  So then what are they left with???  You guessed it.  Michigan's entire offensive output relying on DR to make plays in the passing game.

That's not going to happen for two reasons.  First, Alabama's front 7 versus Michigans o-line is a mismatch.  Yes, Michigan's o-line has some pretty stout bookends, but the are soft in the middle.  Second, Michigan's WRs versus Alabama seconday is also a mismatch in favor of Alabama.  I think Michigan's best chance to move the ball will be to work their backs and tight ends against the linebackers (kind of like what Alabama did against LSU) although I think they'll have minimal success doing that too.

Al Borges is a script guy.  That means Michigan's first 15 (or so) will be scripted.  I have tremondous respect for Borges.  In fact I was rooting for him to get Alabama's vacant OC position.  I think those first 15 (or so) scripted plays will be key for Michigan.  If Michigan's offense does score a TD in this game, I think it'll be during this scripted portion of their game plan.

As we all know, anything can happen in a football game.  Could DR break a long run for a TD???  Sure he could.  Could DR hit a long pass play???  Absolutely.  Can Michigan's offense start with a short field a time or two???  Sure they can.  Can they score a non-offense TD.  The answer is yes.  Yes, all of these things are possible, but none a probably, and betting is all about probability.  Even if one of these things were to occur, I don't think it'll be nearly enough to keep them competitive in this game.

The bottom line is if Michigan can't score TDs, and I don't think they can, the chances are overwhelming that this game won't be close.  I think the best shot Michigan has of covering this game is for them to get a Herculean-type performace out of thier defense and hold Alabama to 24 or less points.  If that happens Michigan may have a chance to keep the game within 2 TDs.  I, however, think Alabama will flirt with the 40-point mark in this game which will kill any chance for a Michigan cover.

If the line stays under 2 TDs, this is the easist bet on the board in week 1.

 

I understand what your saying and you make good points. I just think there is a big difference between Jefferson and Denard.

 I value the point that if the best player on the field can touch the ball every play it really puts alot of pressure on the defense. You and I both thought before the season last season that Alabama's defense could be the best in college football history. But I think that losing so many pieces will hurt in the first few games. Will Bama's defense recover and become dominate as the season progresses? Of course. I just think it's gonna be hard to simulate that type of speed without seeing it first hand.

Again, Im not saying Michigan will win. Im simply saying this will be a much closer game IMO.
quote
Forum Index : Covers College Football : Messages Page 1 of 8  1 2 3 4 5   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.