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Author: [College Football] Topic: Coaching changes and over/unders
TeaseDat send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 7/17/2012 1:02:07 PM
What team's could quickly benefit from new high profile coaches? Kansas/Weis, WSU/Leach, AZ/RichRod? Do you guys think there is any value in the over regular season wins?
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jdnmoney
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#2
Posted: 7/17/2012 6:34:47 PM
utep under 4.5 BIG
army under 5.5
Ohio under 9.5


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#3
Posted: 7/17/2012 8:02:48 PM
idaho UNDER 4.5 regular season wins
Texas state UNDER 2.5 RSW
UNLV UNDER 4.5 RSW


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ApocalypseLater send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 7/17/2012 10:41:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:


Ohio under 9.5




having seen some of your other under bets, i find this won peculiar... looked into it a bit deeper!


if you were to line every one of their games right now, you would have something like this...


@ Penn St  (+10)
NM St  (-24)
@ Marshall  (-2)
Norfolk St  (?... favored, i assume)
@ UMass  (-15?)
Buffalo  (-18)
Akron  (-28)
@ Mia, OH  (+1)
E Mich (-13)
Bowl Green (-8)
@ Ball St  (-4)
@ Kent St  (-4)




i see 7 games that are almost certainly wins... 2 that are toss ups... 1 that they will most likely lose (but not a sure thing)... leaving 2 games at the end of the year on the road that they should be favored in by 3-7 points...

that is, unless you expect Ohio to be nothing like they should be, on paper...

basically, if they go 2-2 in the games in BLACK above, you would probably lose that bet, and if they manage to beat Penn St right out of the gate, you are screwed...

seems like the best case scenario is that you will be going into the final 2 games of the season needing them to split road games against Ball St and Kent...

just my 2 cents...
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#5
Posted: 7/17/2012 11:05:44 PM
i agree but i will say that over my extensive experience studying and betting the mac, 

these teams all usually find a way to beat eachother up, and i cannot find a team that has played in the MAC east that has lost LESS than 3 games since 2003. 

these teams beat eachother up every single year, and while i agree that Ohio will be favored in all but 2 games, they will not win All but two games. 

are you really trusting your hard earned cash to frankie solich and a team that is good, but will undoubtedly face a tough stretch playing three games in 10 days:
OCT 27TH @ Miami OH
NOV 1ST EMU
NOV 7TH BOWLING GREEN


they will be more than likely looking at 2-1 during that stretch. 
I dont think they will go undefeated in the Non-conference
i cannot say i am willing to bet that they will sweep kent state and ball state. 

i think UNDER 9.5 is still the play 

BOL guy
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#6
Posted: 7/17/2012 11:06:52 PM
new mexico state they are favored by 14 tops 

the aggies will be better this year
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jdnmoney
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#7
Posted: 7/17/2012 11:09:15 PM
i would be willing to bet Significantly more on them losing 1 non conference, 1 game out of the 3 games in 10 day stretch and 1 of 2 road games to end the year @ ball and @ kent 


i think ohio will be good, but to say they are going to win 10 is just not something i am prepared to do. 
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-29-
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#8
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:24:29 AM

 I do not think that the Aggies will improve from last year. Last year's team was actually better than their 4-9 record as they almost beat both Nevada and Utah State and they did beat both Minnesota and Fresno. The difference maker last year was definitely the hiring of OC Doug Martin. Well he has left to be the OC at Boston College and the Aggies also lose a TON of talent on both sides of the ball. In addition they were 113th in total defense but a respectable 62nd in passing efficiancy defense. The bad news is they lose all 4 starters in the secondary.

 I have a relative that is being recruited as a junior out of a lower level San Diego H.S. . He is a fast white kid that is a WR that doesn't run the most precise patterns but still manages to rack up huge stats. He is being recruited basically by 5 teams and one of them is New Mexico State, here is what the other four are tellin' him;

Washington State - We love your speed and athleticism and you remind Coach Leach of a young Wes Welker. We can work with you.

Arizona - You really aren't a PAC 12 caliber WR but we are excited about your ability to return kicks and feel that we could put you in the slot and feed you the ball "in space".

Nevada - New Mexico State? They probably will not even have a football program by the time you are a junior. Plus coach Walker probably won't even be around when you get there.

New Mexico - New Mexico State? They are going to be a team without a conference verey soon. They just don't have the media market, facilities, or tradition to be valuable to any of the mid-major conferences in this era of realignment.

 

 The word is out among recruits that NMSU is a dead zone for a football future and the Aggies recruiting is hurting because of it. Not only do they lose their valuable OC but they lose 16 starters and the quality replacements are just not there. I would hate to lose NMSU as an FBS (or whatever they're callin' it now) team so I hope that you are right, but I'd be very cautious about being too excited about the Aggies this season.

 

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#9
Posted: 7/18/2012 1:02:03 AM
great post -29-...


i have heard more than one person say NM St will be improved this year... that is mind-boggling!

this team is a yearly staple at the bottom of Div 1 football, and this year they return a whopping 9 starters... this team not only will not be better this year, they are going to compete for the title of being the worst "non-newcomer" in Div 1 football...

bet against this team every week and you will win money... and yea, Ohio is going to smash this team!  i can't wait to bet Ohio in that game...
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#10
Posted: 7/18/2012 1:30:34 AM

Apocalypse  

 

 I forgot why I clicked on this thread. I was going to say that if ever there was a sure thing, it would be Mississippi winning under 5.5 games. I really hate to admit it but the 'Rebs are going to suck in a big way! I truly believe that the SEC is a better conference when Ole Miss is a factor but that is certainly not going to be the case this season.

 

 I'm not quite ready to say that Hugh Freese isn't a good hire but under current circumstances, the 'Rebs would suck no matterb who the coach may be.

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