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Author: [College Football] Topic: couple week 1 games to consider
nickeydyme send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Hard Rock |
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#1
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:06:59 AM

USC/Hawaii Over anything 63 or less---USC should put on a clinic in this one BUT their defense wasn't very good last year and there is no reason to believe it has improved that much this season.  Norm Chow will be airing it out in his debut.  Not to mention these two schools opened in Hawaii two years ago and Trojans won 49-36 i believe.

Florida anything under 34 they should cover against Bowling Green.  Muschamp has a big time defense down there that should turn over BG 3-4 times leading to at least 14-17 points.  And new OC Pease (From Boise) will look to get things going good with his fast pace run up the score style offense.  Experienced team and the qbs should play better with a year under their belt.  This game has blow out written all over it.

Ohio State anything under 28 for game and under 14 for 1st half spreads.  Yes Miama of ohio has a good qb/wr combo and thats good for MAC play but it's not gonna work against a possible top 5 defense at the horse shoe.  A lot of excitement for this game and there should be, Urban is gonna have this team pumped like never before and a demolishing of Miami Ohio will be just the beginning to get fans to forget about last season.  Braxton Miller fits right into this offense having ran it in hs and has the skills to be effective, also many weapons on offense.  Urban has always loved to run the score up and this game will be no different.

Oregon anything under 34 should be a easy spread for the Ducks.  Too much is being made of Arkansas St. from last year, they will be good in conference but way over their heads for this game.  Their O-line is very inexperienced only 33 starts combined.  Their D only returns 3.  Meanwhile Oregon has their best D ever and their combo running backs of Barner and Thomas will be unstopable in this game, not to mention bennett is better qb than darren thomas.  This spread could be close but i like the Ducks to dominate.

Also Vandy anything +10.5 or higher and Ohio Bobcats anything 16+ or higher.

 

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#2
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:08:58 AM
bowling green is going to be very improved this year,

i would not bet -34 vs. florida until i see some offensive explosion.

i see something like 41-14 but i wouldnt advise laying 34. BG will put up points, and they have a chance this year to turn it around so far that they just might win their league.
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#3
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:15:03 AM
i like USC vs Hawaii over but i like USC -37 even more. i think usc puts up at least 49 in this one, and probably around 56-59 and i see hawaii with 7-10...63 might actually be spot on as you are looking at a 52-10 final IMHO

as far as your assessment of Ark St. i respectfully disagree. they return 5 on the OL with starting experience and plenty of game reps, and with the new coaching staff and Sr. QB who is very very good (ryan Alpine), i will be licking my chops to take Ark St +34.

i think that oregon will score, but i think ark st is very capable of scoring at least 24. im not prepared to say oregon will score 58 in the 1st game of the season. either way, I project the total at 73 and love the over.

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#4
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:15:58 AM

i agree BG should be better than last year, they return almost everyone on D and i think 7 on O but so does Florida.  This game being in the swamp automatically gives Florida 14 points.  BG should compete in the MAC but they are not better than Ohio and Western Michigan.

I agree it is a lot of points but it is that many for a reason, they are going to wear down BG with the fast paced offense and this D is very, very good.  BG 1st half may be nice bet but i'm not doing it.

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#5
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:23:29 AM

Arky State i dont see scoring more than 21 in this game.  Their O-line is back but still inexperienced in the big picture and gave up 3 sacks a game which is a lot.  Their D is their achilles heal and while they will compete in the sunbelt they have no chance of stopping Oregon's O. 

Good input though, guess we gottta wait for the games to be played to see who is right lol

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#6
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:31:28 AM
USC/Hawaii Over anything 63


maybe but no need to get fancy....Warriors should get slaughtered....take USC.....leave total alone
why ?

*Norm Chow (appears) to be extremely overrated in what he can do in TODAY'S game.......sure great offensive mind....but the last time he moved the ball look who TF he had to work with.....plus Sark......(and Kiffin) were major contributors
*UH has a weak OL + new QB + learning new systems
*2010 Hawaii thoroughly embarrassed Monte's D...getting almost 600 (with a few long gainers called back)......so he's gotta want to shut them down
*Trojans STUNK last year in their home opener....combined with not being back home until 9/22 vs Cal.....they will want to show out here

Kiffin has a VERY confident team....he CANNOT allow a less than dominating performance
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#7
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:33:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

USC/Hawaii Over anything 63


maybe but no need to get fancy....Warriors should get slaughtered....take USC.....leave total alone
why ?

*Norm Chow (appears) to be extremely overrated in what he can do in TODAY'S game.......sure great offensive mind....but the last time he moved the ball look who TF he had to work with.....plus Sark......(and Kiffin) were major contributors
*UH has a weak OL + new QB + learning new systems
*2010 Hawaii thoroughly embarrassed Monte's D...getting almost 600 (with a few long gainers called back)......so he's gotta want to shut them down
*Trojans STUNK last year in their home opener....combined with not being back home until 9/22 vs Cal.....they will want to show out here

Kiffin has a VERY confident team....he CANNOT allow a less than dominating performance


exactly what i said too
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#8
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:40:45 AM
Hawaii had 12th rated passing offense last season and USC had 102nd rated pass defense avg giving up 24 a game, they have not improved since last season, that's the main reason i think Oregon wins the PAC 12.  Hawaii will score 21-27 in this game for sure
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#9
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:50:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nickeydyme:

Hawaii had 12th rated passing offense last season and USC had 102nd rated pass defense avg giving up 24 a game, they have not improved since last season, that's the main reason i think Oregon wins the PAC 12.  Hawaii will score 21-27 in this game for sure


hawaii also loses their top QB, Top 3 Wide receivers and are moving to a pro style type of offense with a Fullback and Tight End...

are you sure this is a wise thing to say guy
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#10
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:51:36 AM
I like Ducks too......but Hawaii's got nothing....new QB ....new systems and terminology....and Kiffin is gonna want to show EVERYONE.....that HE'S the man
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#11
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:57:23 AM
Steele has USC's secondary as the nation's 8th best....LY they finished 57th in his rankings.....have all back with a few new guys that can play....
combined with a top DL and great LB's.....Rainbow Warriors are gonna struggle big time to move the ball 
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#12
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:57:31 AM
@jd lol, just my opinion we shall see
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#13
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:57:44 AM
@jd lol, just my opinion we shall see
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#14
Posted: 7/16/2012 1:00:50 AM
nickey:

i respectfully disagree here,

hawaii only was 12th in the country in passing because they throw 55 times a game.

this year their offense will be drastically different.
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#15
Posted: 7/16/2012 2:02:54 AM
Usc defense is not good...
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#16
Posted: 7/16/2012 11:16:10 AM

Couple things to think about....

Why the darn does Kiffin "go for 2" in these early season games?  At some point the 1-3 points left off the board is going to burn somebody.

Does Chip Kelly have extra motivation facing Malzahn?  That BCS game seemed more of a defensive battle through 3 qtrs.  Its not like the Auburn offense had there way with the ducks.Oregon defense should be better than 2010 team.  Alpin ain't no Cam Newton and Michael Dyer not cleared to play

I agree Norm Chow is over his head.  atleast this is a cool job to send off into retirement with.

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#17
Posted: 7/16/2012 1:19:46 PM
I like Ohio a lot at Penn St, Penn St's offense isn't so good and Ohio should be a decent team , I think Penn St wins a close low scoring game like 20-14 ish
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#18
Posted: 7/16/2012 1:39:59 PM

@buddy I completely agree, this team is still dealing with all the distractions that side tracked them last year, their qb is one of the worst in Big10, a new system...Ohio is best team in MAC and won't be intimidated playing in Happy Valley.

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#19
Posted: 7/16/2012 1:56:41 PM
watch out on that BGreen fade Nickey D.....

*Falcons down LY....but a top road dog.....and look like a team to "play on".....not fade
*this will be a scrimmage for the Gators....recall they are installing a completely different...and very complicated offense...
Gators have THREE SEC games on deck....their focus will be on A&M.....and Tennessee......not BG at all
     *they also will keep things very simple...not showing the Aggies much of what they will do
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#20
Posted: 7/16/2012 4:16:33 PM
Very good points bookie.
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#21
Posted: 7/16/2012 4:16:49 PM

Hawaii 13

USC 56

Projected line: USC -24.5

o/u 61

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#22
Posted: 7/16/2012 4:19:35 PM

Playing at COWBOYS stadium

projected score

Alabama 24

Michigan 21

Projected line Alabama -5

Projected O/U 45

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#23
Posted: 7/16/2012 4:20:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Capper007:

Projected line: USC -24.5

I WISH -

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#24
Posted: 7/16/2012 4:26:25 PM

Miami  17

Boston College 14

Projected line: Miami -4

O/U 42

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#25
Posted: 7/16/2012 4:28:22 PM
capper - you are way off in your projected lines...USC -37, Alabama -11...
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