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Author: [College Football] Topic: LSU BCS title talk is hilarious.......................
gridironguy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 7/8/2012 11:27:42 AM
I love my UNDER 10.5 reg seasons wins wager

too many new faces in key places.  this talk of them winning the BCS?  they won't even make the BCS title game let alone win it!!!

@ Auburn  (toss up, i don't care that the line is -9.5 right now)
@ Florida  (probable L)
v South Carolina  (toss up)
@ Tex A&M  (slight edge to LSU)
v Alabama  (toss up)
v Miss State (tougher gm than LSU backers think)
@ Arkansas  (probable L)


LSU finishes 9-3 at best

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#2
Posted: 7/8/2012 11:59:08 AM

I heard the same thing last year and look what happened.  Tougher schedule last year too with Oregon out of conference and "bama on the road.  Miss St was on the road as well, but didn't live up to expectations. 

I agree with you on the new faces aspect.  Florida should be improved and avoiding Georgia this year should help.

They could be in line for a BCS hangover.  LSU still has, potential Hiesman, "Honey Badger"

Good luck on your play

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#3
Posted: 7/8/2012 12:05:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chef702:

I heard the same thing last year and look what happened.  Tougher schedule last year too with Oregon out of conference and "bama on the road.  Miss St was on the road as well, but didn't live up to expectations. 

I agree with you on the new faces aspect.  Florida should be improved and avoiding Georgia this year should help.

They could be in line for a BCS hangover.  LSU still has, potential Hiesman, "Honey Badger"

Good luck on your play



anyone who doubted LSU last yr was just plain foolish.  i knew going into last yr they had 2 senior qb's and 16-17 overall starters returning.  i picked them to go 12-0 and play in the SEC conf champ gm and the BCS title gm.  they went 11-1 and the rest is history.

THIS YEAR is a different story though. 
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#4
Posted: 7/8/2012 12:07:31 PM

I disagree.     LSU will go no worse than 11-1 regular season.   These Bengal Tigers are hungry...

My take

@ Auburn - 10 point win for LSU

@ Florida - new QB at Fla; LSU better D
v South Carolina @ home - 7 point win
@ Tex A&M  - LSU will slaughter them at Kyle
v Alabama (toss up) - agreed
v Miss State (tougher gm than LSU backers think), but still a LSU win
@ Arkansas (probable L) - No way; Ark does not play D; DD win for LSU

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#5
Posted: 7/8/2012 12:30:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

I disagree.     LSU will go no worse than 11-1 regular season.   These Bengal Tigers are hungry...

My take

@ Auburn - 10 point win for LSU

@ Florida - new QB at Fla; LSU better D
v South Carolina @ home - 7 point win
@ Tex A&M  - LSU will slaughter them at Kyle
v Alabama (toss up) - agreed
v Miss State (tougher gm than LSU backers think), but still a LSU win
@ Arkansas (probable L) - No way; Ark does not play D; DD win for LSU



every team in the country is hungry, even Bama who has many new faces who have something to prove.  that is not sound reasoning, this hunger argument.  go look at the history and tell me how many teams who make the nat'l championship, end up going back?  it's because to make a nat'l champ gm you usually have lots of veterans in key places.  this yr those vets for LSU are gone, and i don't believe the new guys (like mettenberger) are ready to win 11 games right off the bat

UNDER 10.5 is an excellent wager 
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#6
Posted: 7/8/2012 2:48:53 PM

too many new faces in key places.

like who?

as when evaluating Bama....sure they lose great players...but can their replacements play?....what will be the actual drop-off in production?

QB?......so you think ZM will be significantly worse than the 2 headed suck-behind monster of JJ/JL?
    *I agree BTW.....ASSuming he can...because he did well in JUCO?....or looked like he MIGHT at Georgia?
BUT...if he can't .....prolly no biggie...Rivers should be better than JJ/JL

RB's?.....all back > one of nation's best

OL.....better.....lose 1 guy but get Dworaczyk back

REC...lose 2 good ones...but little production...so wash here

DL...lose 1 great player...but (extreme) playmakers return....in Mingo...Logan....and Montgomery (20 sacks total)....Steele ranks as #2 in nation

LB's .....appear weaker ...but weren't dominant LY

DB's......lose 1 very good/1 great player.....maybe slightly down but still great ...
Steele ranks as 3rd best in nation

ST...Steele ranks as #2

Seems like the issue with many is a short memory...
The last time we saw LSU they looked terrible...why people forget....that before that LSU was (arguably) one of the most dominant teams we've seen in recent memory....despite poor QB play

The only team with less questions....and a better starting cast (maybe) is USC.....OU or FSU maybe
     *talking less questions.....not better necessarily

But .....for my money the more battle tested ....ready for prime time team is LSU.....
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#7
Posted: 7/8/2012 7:41:39 PM
Hilarious? No way- will it be tough this year? You bet- but this team has the potential to be better- Last year's team was predictable on offense and had terrible QB play- If LSU opens up the offense then they will be dangerous.
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#8
Posted: 7/8/2012 8:12:17 PM
Yeah, a team that may have up to 6 players drafted in the 1st round of 2013 NFL draft has zero chance of winning a national championship. 
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#9
Posted: 7/8/2012 8:21:09 PM
Good one Jimmy- looking foward to a great year this year- Good luck to you!
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#10
Posted: 7/8/2012 8:28:06 PM
yes and this lsu team did beat bama at bama in a great defensive game like 9-3 or 9-6 ....we are thinking 12-0 but will take 11-1...anything less will be a  bad season.....
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#11
Posted: 7/8/2012 8:42:39 PM
It wil be hard but it is possible with the talent they have
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#12
Posted: 7/8/2012 8:46:35 PM
they have a qb now and everything else is in place, LSU vs USC it is what it is.
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#13
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:03:04 PM
Their running attack will be powerful.  Lots of backs to pound and wear down opposing defenses.  This team will be at or near the top all season.  
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#14
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:39:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Yeah, a team that may have up to 6 players drafted in the 1st round of 2013 NFL draft has zero chance of winning a national championship. 


"MAY have up to 6 players.........."

who says?  mel kiper's draft report an entire 10 mos before the 2013 draft??  we'll see how that draft turns out at the end of April 2013.

in the meantime i'll take the UNDER 5.5 on LSU players drafted in the 1st rd of the 2013 draft

and besides, look how many great 1st rounds USC has had in the last 7 yrs, and they only won a AP title in 03 and had the 04 title stripped away
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Posted: 7/8/2012 10:41:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UL-LAFAYETTEKID:

yes and this lsu team did beat bama at bama in a great defensive game like 9-3 or 9-6 ....we are thinking 12-0 but will take 11-1...anything less will be a  bad season.....


well the experts in the desert and offshore set the O/U at 10.5, and the juice has gone from -120 (when i took it) to like -175 now

there are some VERY VERY VERY SHARP MINDS betting on LSU doing no better than 10-2


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#16
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:54:31 PM
all that said.....don't think at -120 it's a bad wager at all 
 
just kinda carrying on last season's argument......defending LSU after Bama loss......to silly Bama homer talk....
    *seems like it's around -200 at 5Dimes now......

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#17
Posted: 7/9/2012 12:41:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gridironguy:

I love my UNDER 10.5 reg seasons wins wager

too many new faces in key places.  this talk of them winning the BCS?  they won't even make the BCS title game let alone win it!!!

@ Auburn  (toss up, i don't care that the line is -9.5 right now)
@ Florida  (probable L)
v South Carolina  (toss up)
@ Tex A&M  (slight edge to LSU)
v Alabama  (toss up)
v Miss State (tougher gm than LSU backers think)
@ Arkansas  (probable L)


LSU finishes 9-3 at best


It would take a small miracle for UF to beat LSU this year, and they are not losing 3 games. Three losses for the team they will be fielding this year would be a disaster, They will lose one game somewhere because Miles is an idiot and always does and last year it happened at the worst time because of his incompetence and not even giving his team a competitive shot to win the game. LSU is loaded once again and might be better than last year.
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#18
Posted: 7/9/2012 1:07:05 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by gridironguy:



"MAY have up to 6 players.........."

who says?  mel kiper's draft report an entire 10 mos before the 2013 draft??  we'll see how that draft turns out at the end of April 2013.

in the meantime i'll take the UNDER 5.5 on LSU players drafted in the 1st rd of the 2013 draft

and besides, look how many great 1st rounds USC has had in the last 7 yrs, and they only won a AP title in 03 and had the 04 title stripped away

Your initial argument suggests that anyone who thinks that the team with the most talented 22 starters in the nation, 6 of which have legitmate 1st round potential, are national championship contenders are idiots.  Now that the folly of that argument has been exposed, you cannot not be heard to change the argument.

When your argument is weak, change the argument.

 

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#19
Posted: 7/9/2012 1:20:21 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by gridironguy:



well the experts in the desert and offshore set the O/U at 10.5, and the juice has gone from -120 (when i took it) to like -175 now

there are some VERY VERY VERY SHARP MINDS betting on LSU doing no better than 10-2


All future wagers at negative odds are sucker bets.  Most sharp bettors never place future wagers.  The ones that do understand the concept of the time value of money and, thus, would NEVER place a future bet at negative odds.  The people placing these types of wagers are NOT sharp.  They are very, very, very big suckers that bookmakers love.

If the odds on this bet were something like +200, then it might be worth considering.  But to tie up money for 5 months on a bet that has about a 20-25 percent chance of hitting at negative odds is simply incomprehensible.

 

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#20
Posted: 7/9/2012 1:25:39 AM
I would take a future at plus money of them having no MORE than one loss and the odds would be much better and realistic.
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#21
Posted: 7/9/2012 2:39:42 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jwheels86:

I would take a future at plus money of them having no MORE than one loss and the odds would be much better and realistic.

I agree.

First of all, I would never make a futures bet at negative odds.  That is sucker bet city.  I made two futures bets last season: Georgia to win the SEC East at 6:1, and Alabama to win the national championship at 4:1 (.5 unit each).

Given that it is a very high probability that either Alabama or LSU will win the national championship this season, LSU at 6:1 and Alabama at 4:1 would both be sound bets this season.  If you bet both you are almost assured to at least double your money.

 

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#22
Posted: 7/9/2012 6:37:01 AM
They are around -210 Under 10.5  ...

seems like a waste of money to tie it up on a team who has a decent chance of winning 11+

While I hope you are right and they lose 2+, since I don't have a cent on them for the Championship , this does not seem like a good bet at -210
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#23
Posted: 7/9/2012 9:15:44 AM

laying 600 to win 500 at -120 odds in what i believe is an extremely good wager, was smart to me

now the line is up over -200

i got in early, i saw this a mile way

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#24
Posted: 7/9/2012 9:16:04 AM
i put 350 on michigan state
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#25
Posted: 7/9/2012 10:56:49 AM
350 down the drain.
Posted using a mobile device.
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