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Author: [College Football] Topic: North Texas / LSU
ApocalypseLater send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 7/9/2012 12:07:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BamaPiks:

  in my opinion it is a little crazy to bet a cupcake opener with a spread of more than 17-21. 



i'm guessing you have not been betting on CFB for very long...


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#27
Posted: 7/9/2012 12:40:51 PM
i agree with apocolypse...''


this other guy must have no clue what he is talking about...
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#28
Posted: 7/9/2012 1:10:39 PM
Speaking of big fades. What are the 5 worst teams in college football this year?

I'm thinking New Mexico, Akron, and some of the new comers from Div-II
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#29
Posted: 7/9/2012 1:22:57 PM
Akron
Memphis
FAU
Idaho
New Mexico
UTSA
So. Alabama

im sure there are others.
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#30
Posted: 7/9/2012 1:31:47 PM
QUOTE  Originally Posted by eddothebook:

Speaking of big fades. What are the 5 worst teams in college football this year?

I'm thinking New Mexico, Akron, and some of the new comers from Div-II




124     UTSA.....only 2nd yr of football
123     Texas St
122     UMass
121     S Alabama
120     Akron

119     FAU
118     New Mexico

120-123 who tf knows......UTSA most likely the worst tho
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#31
Posted: 7/9/2012 2:36:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



1st......you guys stop talking about this game.....

only lay the BIG WOOD .....with a dominant team returning a PROVEN performer at QB....on the field that is.....not in bars or at a JUCO....


I disagree.  With an unproven QB, a lot of coaches will want him to pile up big passing stats to get some confidence and experience.  A proven QB might be benched earlier.  Depends on the coach and the QB, so we'll see.

I think the line will be between 45 and 50.  We'll see on that too
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#32
Posted: 7/9/2012 3:12:22 PM

also fade

UNLV,  N Texas, FAU, Central Michigan, to name a few...

 

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#33
Posted: 7/9/2012 3:13:00 PM
bookie i respectfully disagree with UMASS, 

they are ready to make the Jump from D-1AA to D-1A

they should be 13th or so in the MAC but i dont think they are bottom 5

UTSO, SO. Alabama, Akron are really bad

memphis will be bad again, 

Both New MExico's will be bad, but NMST is better than they have been

i think Idaho is going to be horrid. 

FAU is goign to be horrid

texas state might not win a game at this level for a while


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#34
Posted: 7/9/2012 3:16:21 PM

mettenberger is coming in with a lot of hype...if he lives up to it, the sky is the limit...even if LSU puts up 35 in the first half, ZM will not come out until halfway through the 4th, even if he hands off the ball, to get the game time speed that Thorpe referenced...

I encourage all of those not on LSU in week 1 to look elsewhere, and take N Texas plus the points at your own peril...

 

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#35
Posted: 7/9/2012 3:54:49 PM
why are you so sure LSU will put up 35 in the 1st half...i cannot remember them doing that any time in the last 3 years.


with the way they play they are going to have to score every possession and one of UNT's possessions too.

i respect your opinion Longhorn but i think you are overhyping an already overhyped team.

and please just consider one more thing.

you have used the argument that LSU will be very fired up because of the NC game embarrassement but what if that provides cause for a hangover.

what if they dont gel right away. what if mettenberger throws a pick 6, or fumbles. or UNT scores on busted coverage.

are you so sure that LSU is going to play PERFECT, and cover a number as large as 45-50?
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#36
Posted: 7/9/2012 4:01:43 PM

Being a UNT alum, I have to say, their offense used to be ANEMIC.

But, with the new coach coming in... who knows. But, I wouldn't bet on UNT vs. LSU.

They haven't had a decent quarterback since Hall left in the mid 2000's. I'm interested to see if the spread is 40-45. I might still take LSU...

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#37
Posted: 7/9/2012 4:03:43 PM
do you think at all that the QB they have returning this year MIGHT be able to put together ONE drive vs LSU.

if it is 45-50 it should take only 6-10 points to cover the number. no?
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#38
Posted: 7/9/2012 4:14:49 PM

Their RB Lance Dunbar graduated... I am pretty sure he went to the NFL. He was literally the whole offense last year... and the year before that.

With one year under McCarney's belt, he finally got to recruit his players, so it will be interesting to see if there is any switch.

They lost 41-0 to Alabama last year in Week# 3.

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#39
Posted: 7/9/2012 4:18:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lar1212:

Their RB Lance Dunbar graduated... I am pretty sure he went to the NFL. He was literally the whole offense last year... and the year before that.

With one year under McCarney's belt, he finally got to recruit his players, so it will be interesting to see if there is any switch.

They lost 41-0 to Alabama last year in Week# 3.




the spread was 47
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#40
Posted: 7/9/2012 4:21:18 PM
Yeah, but I guess what I'm saying is that you are probably taking your chances that LSU messes up/steps off the peddle vs. UNT scoring.
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#41
Posted: 7/9/2012 4:22:49 PM

That being said, Week# 1 is the week to pick underdogs... I just don't think UNT is a good option @ LSU.

It will depend on the spread. I might eat my words.

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#42
Posted: 7/9/2012 4:27:42 PM
week 1 is usually a week to pick chalk,

but i just cannot justify laying 45 or so with LSU...only way i play LSU is if the spread is less than 38

43-50 will be a play on UNT and 38-42.5 will be a layoff
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#43
Posted: 7/9/2012 5:29:45 PM

Yea LSU IS at home tho... Maybe if they were in N TX then N TX would have the edge to cover. You figure LSU may lay off late in the 4th on the road a little bit. At home they just might dismantle them tho. It just might be 56-3 or 59-0. -43 is a crap load of chalk. I couldnt play no damn 43. However...

I think if they are teased in any form or fashion its a cover but I like the line straight up anything below 40. -38 would be lovely

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#44
Posted: 7/9/2012 8:31:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

Akron

Poor Akron, it'll be tough for them to be worse than last year....but definitely possible.....fade material at its best.

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#45
Posted: 7/9/2012 9:15:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


I think the line will be between 45 and 50. 




there will be some great bets in week 1... but if i could bet on this, i would put my entire bankroll on the fact that the line will not be 45 or more... i would bet half my bankroll that it won't be higher than 42...

and Lar1212... week 1 is not a week to pick underdogs... not sure where you are coming up with that theory, but i have to assume it isn't based on experience...
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#46
Posted: 7/9/2012 10:54:09 PM
Actually, I have been betting on football for quite a few years but it is stupid to bet on a high spread in a cupcake game. However, I do follow the SEC (big boy conference) where the water boy is usually playing QB in the 2nd qtr...meaning I'm not laying money on freshmen with limited experience.

However, you play your strategy and I'll play mine. Holler at ya no time soon!
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#47
Posted: 7/9/2012 11:33:33 PM
bamapiks you are such a Chump...

nothing productive brought by you in these threads
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#48
Posted: 7/9/2012 11:58:00 PM
No, I just expose Mr. Know-it all's that think they can come in a thread and try to powerfully state their incompetent thoughts about a conference that I follow all year long.

"Chump"?? How old are you??
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#49
Posted: 7/10/2012 12:37:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BamaPiks:

Actually, I have been betting on football for quite a few years but it is stupid to bet on a high spread in a cupcake game. However, I do follow the SEC (big boy conference) where the water boy is usually playing QB in the 2nd qtr...meaning I'm not laying money on freshmen with limited experience.

However, you play your strategy and I'll play mine. Holler at ya no time soon!



you clearly havent been betting for a while or you would know that weeks #1 and #2 are the best and most profitable when betting favorites with big spreads

when has this ever happened? please tell me when the water boy has ever played in the 2nd quarter. only time i can think of was in 1978 when Neil Lomax played QB for Portland St. and threw 7 TD's in the 1st Quarter and they won 105-0...
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#50
Posted: 7/10/2012 12:52:55 AM
#28 jdnmoney 6/15/12 1:08 AM

Do what you will but I wouldn't lay 43-45 on LSU no matter what the situation. They struggle too much on offense. Much better situations will present themselves in wk 1

Contradictory!!
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