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Louisiana Tech +10 (or better) vs. TCU (UNDER 28 1st Half) *** Regular 5-Unit Play *** 

Hit my 5-Unit play.  I'm going to layoff on making a 2nd half play.  Gonna let my La Tech +10 play out.

Counting only the plays I've posted in this thread, my record is 2 & 0 (+6.0 Units).

Arizona State vs. Boise State

I would really like ASU a lot in this game if they weren't one of the worst coached teams in the country, and the fact they are playing one of the best coached teams in the country.  I also promised myself earlier in the season that I wouldn't wager another penny on them.  That said I still locked in two fist half plays.

ASU +7.5 (1st Half) vs. Boise St. *** Small 1-Unit Play ***

ASU +7.5 vs. Boise St  UNDER 34 (1st Half)  *** Small 2-Unit Play ***

First of all I want to note that I am making very small plays on both the side and the total.  The bet size reflects my level of confidence in the plays, and if you've followed this thread, you know my confidence level on both plays isn't very high.

Secondly, yes both teams are capable of putting up points against the opposing team's defense, but the line accounts for this.  I capped this game as a 35-31, 35-28 type of a game with Boise coming out on top.  Notice those totals are right in line with the total set by the oddsmakers.

I neglected to post it above, but I really like the value in the 1st half plays because I only had to lay -105.

When I bet unders in college football I usually will bet the 1st half under as opposed to the game under particularly if I think it's going to be a competitive game.  With college overtime rules such as they are, I don't want to lose my under bet because the game went to 3 overtimes.

After nearly a 1-month layoff, I expect the offenses to come out somewhat slow.  Morevoer, the team likely to score most of the points - Boise - is not a no-huddle, hurry-up type offense.  The are much more of a balanced, ball-control type of attack thus chewing up precious minutes off the clock.

Again I want to emphasis these are very small plays.  I would recommend treading lightly.

You could be absolutely right.  And yes, Boise is typically a very good 1st half team.  But Boise is not playing New Mexico or San Jose State tonight.  The are playing a very talented (albeit horribly coached) PAC 10 team.  So I don't think Boise will just run the Sun Devils out of the stadium in the 1st half.  I think the ASU will be able to hang with Boise for a little while, and that if Boise is able to seperate themselves, they'll probably do so in the 2nd half - not the 1st half.

Despite ASU's pedestrian 6 & 6 record, they have played a far tougher schedule than Boise, and have not been blown out by anyone.  I really don't think that changes tonight.

I wrote in another thread about the motivating factors in this game, and I don't believe for one second that the ASU players give a rat's behind about Dennis Erickson, or have any motivation to win a game for him.  If I thought that I would be all over the ASU moneyline, because I think they are the more talented team.  So I really have no argument with you there.  I just think the game will play out a little closer than you think it will.

If you have Boise -14 we might not be so opposite afterall.  I may hit my ASU +7.5 and UNDER 34 in the first half, and you may very well go on to cash your -14 ticket.

Yes, whatever the pain, it'll be over with quickly.

Honestly though, I really think the 1st half plays are the best plays, and I'm only have to lay -105 to boot.  So I'm in a pretty hppy place right now.  I just hope I can say that a couple of hours from now.

  Best of luck to us tonight JEG!!! 

Thank you sir.

Back at chew CB!!!

Is our resident west-coast Covers expert not going to weigh in on the Las Vegas Bowl tonight???  Not even a single nugget of wisdom???