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RJSizzle |
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#1 Posted: 12/5/2011 7:44:29 PM Had a decent year. Petered out a bit at the end, but picked up over 100 units, which is rather disappointing, but still, its being up money and thats all that we are here for. Did really well last bowl season, hitting most games, just ate it on the national shampionship.
Thoughts will be dropped over the next few weeks...but here is what I have for now....
I just bet on Wisconsin over Oregon. My book is offering 6.5 and while I have the eery feeling it hits 7, I love Wisconsin here and will just add more if it hits that #. They should run the ball down Oregon's throat and I dont see Russy Wills losing here.
I like Stanford too. Too good of a story for luck to go out with a loss. Never really impressed by Okie State this year either. OU didnt give a garbage about that game and it showed, I dont give much credit for that win.
Surprised I dont have to lay points with VT, who always seems to be in big bowls. Michigan, while a nice story, I dont think has enough to beat VT here. Game of mobile QBs should be fun, though.
Sort of huge suckers lines inviting action on Clemson and LSU. I lean the other way in both, but its QB play that has me doing so.
Very, very interested in Western Michigan.
Will have bets on damn near every bowl this year - a lot unlike years past.
Lets get some discussion going.
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stickman80733 |
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#2 Posted: 12/5/2011 8:34:10 PM Nevada jumps out at me  |
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wolffer12 |
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#3 Posted: 12/5/2011 8:44:17 PM I am not shocked one bit. I saw the lines lastnight and these games jumped out big time to me. VA tech, Alabama, and Wisconsin. Oregon just never shows up for these big games. |
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tideman |
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#4 Posted: 12/5/2011 9:08:26 PM Virg Tech is like a box of chocolates, you just never know what you are going to get... Clemson falls into that category as well... leaning Michigan and West Virginia
I also like Stanford, but not sure if Wisky will ever slow down Oregon... don't think they will be able to handle the fast paced tempo or overall speed, but agree that Wisky will have a nice day pounding the ball. Best of luck  |
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TRAIN69 |
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#5 Posted: 12/5/2011 10:06:59 PM Like Wisc/Oregon over the total more than a side as neither defense is gonna stop the other team. Bama doesnt have a qb or special teams so its hard to back them. WV shouldnt be in this bowl game. Dont think anyone in the nation ever gave Ok St credit. Good offense and leading the nation in takeaways while Stanfords defense is slow and offense doesnt go down the field much.Luck will be auditioning for the Colts.... |
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tinoker55 |
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#6 Posted: 12/5/2011 10:31:09 PM Dont agree with Wisky, I think Oregon's team speed will be too much for them..
Really?? I think Okl St put a beatdown on Okl, do you reallly think they layed down in that game, dont think so, just think Okl and Stoops have some soul searching to do..
I was never really impressed with Luck to tell you the truth.. I think hell do well in the NFL, but nothing spectacular. Maybe i just like more excitement like watching RGIII paly, idk, but well see.
Agree with the Bama play though, another split ahampionship maybe?? GL  |
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tooez |
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#7 Posted: 12/5/2011 10:40:34 PM Congrats on the profitable season RJ 
I agree with the Stanford and Wisky plays for sure. But I'm leaning towards Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. I just saw an interview last night with Michigan defensive end Ryan Van Bergen who said this game is HUGE for them, especially the outgoing seniors who have only played in one bowl game (last season) and got whooped by 38 to Miss St. He said they want to prove they belong in the Sugar Bowl and to make Michigan football relevant again. Just my 2 cents. |
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BigShotBill |
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#8 Posted: 12/5/2011 11:58:30 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by RJSizzle: Had a decent year. Petered out a bit at the end, but picked up over 100 units, which is rather disappointing, but still, its being up money and thats all that we are here for. Did really well last bowl season, hitting most games, just ate it on the national shampionship.
Thoughts will be dropped over the next few weeks...but here is what I have for now....
I just bet on Wisconsin over Oregon. My book is offering 6.5 and while I have the eery feeling it hits 7, I love Wisconsin here and will just add more if it hits that #. They should run the ball down Oregon's throat and I dont see Russy Wills losing here.
I like Stanford too. Too good of a story for luck to go out with a loss. Never really impressed by Okie State this year either. OU didnt give a garbage about that game and it showed, I dont give much credit for that win.
Surprised I dont have to lay points with VT, who always seems to be in big bowls. Michigan, while a nice story, I dont think has enough to beat VT here. Game of mobile QBs should be fun, though.
Sort of huge suckers lines inviting action on Clemson and LSU. I lean the other way in both, but its QB play that has me doing so.
Very, very interested in Western Michigan.
Will have bets on damn near every bowl this year - a lot unlike years past.
Lets get some discussion going.
Hey Sizzle,
I had a rough November and and went from up 60+ units at the beginning of the month to up 42 units now losing 1/3 of my profit. I know you were awesome in the bowls last year so I wanted to start some good discussion here with you as we have plenty of time to evaluate games, wait for morons to get arrested over winter break, and wait for the dopes on every team to become academically ineligible. I think your are very good in bowl season because your strategy of buying low and selling high works very well this time of the year while playing the motivation strategy as well. Anyways, on to the games.
I love Wisconsin as you can see in Andarmac's thread. Line is 4 to 5 pts too high and Wisconsin has the motivational edge over an Oregon team thinking Natl Title this year and a few weeks ago before losing to USC. Wisconsin can run all over them, they have a much better OL than Stanford and a better defense. Wisconsin's defense isnt great but getting almost a TD looks solid vs a Ducks offense which has been very weak offensively in bowls the last two years.
I agree with you on Stanford over Ok State. You think Ok State is slightly bummed about not being in the title game? Stanford will show up here and Luck will shread that weak defense. I think the Big 12 sucks in bowls because they play no defense and they aren't as good in the trenches compared to other conferences.
I think Bama gets some revenge on LSU. Quite frankly they should have won the first game. That idiot TE let a safety take the ball away from him on the 1. If he catches that ball Richardson pounds the ball in and Bama goes up 7 with 6 mins to play. Bama's FG kicker also missed four fgs in that game. Give me Saban over Miles everyday of the week and I will take Mccarron over Lee/Jefferson. Tough to beat the same team twice. Remember Florida over FSU in the Natl Title game in 96?
I really like Vandy -2 over Cinci. I think Cinci is a fraud from the Big East and Collaros is still out. Cinci thought they were headed to a BCS bowl while Vandy is happy to be bowling again and motivated for a win, they play in a tougher conference, and they have a solid football team.
I also kind of like Penn St getting pts against Houston. I feel its always best to fade these high scoring teams with no defense laying pts. Penn St is a solid team and they can run the ball. Penn St has motivation factor as well with Houston laying an egg in the Conf USA Title Game. These boys thought they were going to a BCS game and now they are playing in the Ticket City Bowl 
Call me a sucker but I like Boise to pound ASU. I know you wont be with me on this pick but I see Peterson and Boise coming out pissed off and crushing ASU. I also think ASU spends too much time partying all week in Vegas. Kellen Moore wants to go out on top and ASU is so inconsistent. I doubt ASU shows up here.
What do you think about KState getting over a TD vs Arkansas? KState has been ATS darlings all year and they are dogs again where they thrive. Arkansas hasnt beaten anyone all year getting destroyed by LSU and Bama and not playing Georgia or Florida. Who is their signature win against? Texas A+M? SEC is clearly better then the Big 12 but there is something about this KState who actually plays defense.
I like Texas over Cal with the short line. Texas plays defense whil Cal doesnt and I think Texas gets the ground game going and the passing game with Mccoy. Give me that Texas coaching staff over Tedford too.
Michigan is very overrated and this is coming from a big Michigan fan. They didn't play Penn St or Wisconsin this year and lost to the best team they played in Michigan State. Their signature win was probably over Nebraska. VT looked like garbage twice this yr vs an electric Clemson offense but Michigan doesnt have a Watkins or a Boyd at QB and Michigan doesnt have a DL like Clemson's. Denard is good for two turnovers a game and it will hurt them here. Michigans secondary still sucks and VT should move the ball on them.
Cant wait to hear your thoughts Sizzle on the shitty games. You are usually very good at picking those crap bowl games. |
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BigShotBill |
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#9 Posted: 12/6/2011 12:05:47 AM Why do you like WV? Clemson is a Jerkyl/Hyde team but so is WV with horrible performances vs Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville. I dont see a motivational edge here on either side as both teams should be up for this game. Id take Hollgerson over Dabo but Clemson has a better offense and can WV really hurt that weak Clemson run defense? WV has had trouble scoring all year despite the weapons they have. |
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jimmydafreak |
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#10 Posted: 12/6/2011 12:35:50 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by tideman:
I also like Stanford, but not sure if Wisky will ever slow down Oregon... don't think they will be able to handle the fast paced tempo or overall speed, but agree that Wisky will have a nice day pounding the ball. Best of luck 
I think playing on a grass surface will help Whisky.
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jimmydafreak |
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#11 Posted: 12/6/2011 12:57:28 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by BigShotBill:
I think Bama gets some revenge on LSU. Quite frankly they should have won the first game. That idiot TE let a safety take the ball away from him on the 1. If he catches that ball Richardson pounds the ball in and Bama goes up 7 with 6 mins to play. Bama's FG kicker also missed four fgs in that game. Give me Saban over Miles everyday of the week and I will take Mccarron over Lee/Jefferson. Tough to beat the same team twice. Remember Florida over FSU in the Natl Title game in 96?
Let me offer some rebutal here.
I'm in total agreement with you that Alabama should have won the first game, and will win this one.
As far as the interception at the 1 is concerned, the real problem with that play was the pass itself. It wasn't thrown in the zip code of where it should have been thrown.
LSU was in man coverage and TE Michael Williams was completely uncovered. Williams was running a corner-post. Had the ball been thrown to the outside like it should have been, it is an easy, uncontested TD. Instead the ball was thrown down the middle of the field which drew coverage, and forced Williams to catch the ball behind him.
Moreover, when both players hit the ground Reid had neither hand on the ball. His right hand was wrapped around Williams' waist, and his left forearm came down on Williams' chest. Even though the camera angles weren't great, that play still should have been overturned by the replay official.
Alabama has 2 field goal kickers - a long range one and a short range one. Jeremy Shelley, the short FG kicker is hitting almost 80% of his kicks. Cade Foster on the other hand has been wildly inconsistent on his FGs and kickoffs all season. He seems to digress as the season wears on. He can only be described as a huge liability at this point.
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kroch |
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#12 Posted: 12/6/2011 4:41:04 PM Clearly Wisky is the surprising opening line---which is why i'm curious you are going that way. Everybody and their mom is going to sign up for Wisky + a td. I really think Wisky isn't that physical to run against at all---JJ Watt was a bigtime loss for them this season. Not like MSU really has a great offense and they put up 40+ on them twice.
I mean, tOSU put up 33 on Wisky. tOSU!
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dimedimenickel |
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#13 Posted: 12/6/2011 4:49:50 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kroch:
Clearly Wisky is the surprising opening line---which is why i'm curious you are going that way. Everybody and their mom is going to sign up for Wisky + a td. I really think Wisky isn't that physical to run against at all---JJ Watt was a bigtime loss for them this season. Not like MSU really has a great offense and they put up 40+ on them twice.
I mean, tOSU put up 33 on Wisky. tOSU!
Oregon got plenty of money and love this year, as well as the last few years in the bowls. If you recall, in the NC game, Oregon went from +3 to -1. This year, 80% of the money in the Pacific Time Zone will bet on Oregon. Wiscy was a trendy team, but most net lost money on them vs. Mich St 2x, and Ohio State. Not a ton of money was chasing those 28+ point spreads earlier in the season according to my local.
Best of luck. |
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RJSizzle |
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#14 Posted: 12/6/2011 7:00:34 PM Jimmy is right about the Rose Bowl....grass is going to play a big factor there. Oregon will be slowed and now without Harris as well - but what else is new. My bet on that game is not on the Wisconsin defense. My bet on that game is against the Oregon defense. They arent going to stop Wisconsin once. Wilson and Ball are going to eat this team alive. Oregon was much less impressive than last year and a good run game is the worst thing that can happen to these tree huggers.
I think Michigan has the motivation in their bowl game, I mean, they are finally relevant again. But I think VT is just so much better. They were reading too many headlines last week and just didnt show up - I dont blame em, garbage, I bet against em. But this is another spot here. I think that was a rude awakening and with a chance to play in a good bowl this is another story. I think VT can make a bunch more stops than Michigan. Michigan is a great story and is going to get a lot of love, so I am looking for a better line. BSB also points out Michigan has played NOBODY.
I dont see how Okie State has the motivation here. I still find them too soft a team to play Stanford that far away from home. Stanford going to have a much friendlier environment.
Vandy had a nice season and they played well all year. Would be great for them to cap it with a bowl win. Dont think its going to happen, though. The line shows no confidence in them. SEC against Big East and that is the line they offer? Geez.
PSU outright. I have said it often this year - Houston is friggin terrible. PSU does whatever they want, whenever they want and this one gets ugly.
Think Boise gets surprised by the defense of ASU here. Boise always going to get an inflated bowl line.
Now that everyone is off the K State bandwagon, its time we get back on....it was a cash cow for like 5-6 weeks in a row. At first glance I liked Ark, but like you said, back in the dog role K State should thrive.
With a lot of time to prepare, I dont see how Cal doesnt clown Texas - and thats tough to say being a Horn fan. Texas is not going to find the running game as easy and we all know they cannot pass with any consistency. I really believe in the Cal D Line and LBs when it comes to stopping the run in big games.
WVA is the coaching and QB angle. With this much time to prepare, I think Holgorsen is very capable. Clemson sort of won their super bowl after playing like person the last month and a half.
While I think I am getting a very generous line with Wisconsin, they are hardly a sexy pick stumbling every which way down the stretch. Its the run game. Te amo.
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earthWake |
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#15 Posted: 12/6/2011 7:04:30 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by RJSizzle:
Think Boise gets surprised by the defense of ASU here. Boise always going to get an inflated bowl line.
Boise was 17 pt favorites last year over Utah and won 26-3 |
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dk1230 |
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#16 Posted: 12/6/2011 7:36:24 PM Wisconsin should get Outland finalist Peter Konz back at center for the Rose Bowl. As good as their OL is, it's way better when Konz is playing. Oregon isn't going to like that at all. |
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wolffer12 |
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#17 Posted: 12/6/2011 9:57:06 PM I don't know how you guys feel that Wisky is a sexy pick here. darn I can ask around the bar right now and everybody will tell you Oregon would roll in this game. ESPN has friggin build them up to be a super team and the common joe thinks they are light years ahead of Wisky and to give up less than 7 well all the squares will take a bite of that action. |
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earthWake |
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#18 Posted: 12/6/2011 10:20:56 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by wolffer12:
I don't know how you guys feel that Wisky is a sexy pick here. darn I can ask around the bar right now and everybody will tell you Oregon would roll in this game. ESPN has friggin build them up to be a super team and the common joe thinks they are light years ahead of Wisky and to give up less than 7 well all the squares will take a bite of that action.
So fkin Joe public drunk thinks Oregon will roll so thats what is going to happen? |
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earthWake |
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#19 Posted: 12/6/2011 10:22:54 PM I'm kind of confused by your post Wolffer.
You contradict yourself in the first 2 sentences, not sure which team you are talking about? |
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jimmydafreak |
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#20 Posted: 12/7/2011 3:45:12 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by RJSizzle:
Think Boise gets surprised by the defense of ASU here. Boise always going to get an inflated bowl line.
Even though Sun Devils completely tanked down the stretch (lost 5 of their last 6 games), I think they are the more talented team here, and that they pull it together and play well. They should be able to get into the 30s against Boise's defense and that should be good enough to cover and possibly win outright.
ASU +14 and a small play on the ML.
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bunny651 |
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#21 Posted: 12/7/2011 10:12:12 AM RJ -- I like Stanford, too but for a different reason. Most teams thought they deserved a shot at the NC normally would not have their minds on a "lesser" bowl. |
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dolyman |
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#22 Posted: 12/7/2011 10:37:31 AM The bigger deal to me in the Ore/Wisky game is the time allowed to prepare. These teams that are more scheme based for ex. Navy, Ga Tech, Ducks. Dont seem to fare well when teams have multiple weeks to prepare. Last couple of years all these teams seem to struggle offensively.
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kroch |
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#23 Posted: 12/7/2011 2:37:27 PM dolyman- the last couple of years the Ducks were going against tOSU and LSU. Big, fast defenses. contrast this to Wisky.
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kroch |
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#24 Posted: 12/7/2011 2:38:58 PM RJ- agree on Cal (and i'm going to the game). bad matchup for the Horns.
Also think Gundy's interview the day after said it all. They left it all on the field at Bedlam. Reminds me of Cal when they got jobbed by the Rose Bowl and got blown out by TTech. Stanford will be one of my largest bets of the bowl season.
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SportsFreak69 |
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#25 Posted: 12/7/2011 2:40:50 PM Have a great bowl season  |
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