Las Vegas Bowl - Boise vs Arizona St
My line: Boise -17
Vegas Line Boise -13
Pleaser to 19.5, 20.5, 22.5
Pick: This is a top spread play and also will be used in pleasers. If Arizona St gives up Boise can easily win by 24+
Morale:
I have not seen Boise not give a good effort in the last 8 years. I think they'll want to win Kellen Moore's last game and set an almost unreakable mark for career wins by a QB.
ASU has maybe the worst intangibles of any team this bowl year. Plenty of guys looking out for themselves thinking they are NFL draft picks.
On the field
Boise is a disciplined team. ASU was undisciplined before their coach was fired, so they are just the kind of team Boise can hammer. Osweiler has a big arm and he could backdoor Boise if he can throw for 375+ without interceptions. Kellen Moore is auditioning for a legit chance of being a top 10 pick.
Result
Arizona State will wish they declined this bowl invite. There is a chance that Osweiler has a big game or Boise completely lays an egg, but there are no sure things in gambling. Arizona St lost at home to Cal, and Cal made it look easy. If you know how bad a team Cal is on the road, then you know that Boise under 2 TDs is a great bet IMO.
Military Bowl - Air Force vs Toledo
Vegas Line: Air Force +2
My Line : Air Force -3.5
Pick: Medium Play on Air Force.
Pleaser to AF -5.5
Morale
The nice thing about betting a service academy is that they will almost always give a good effort. I expect Air Force will have excellent morale in the Military bowl and it will be a measure of pride for them to defend the Military Bowl from the MAC
Toledo will give an excellent effort but I think they are most focused on winning the MAC and they will be dissapointed that they let slip away this year
On the field
I expect Toledo to move the ball but I also expect Toledo to turn the ball over and to have trouble stopping the option.
Result
Should be an entertaining game. If Toledo's offense clicks, Air Force will be in big trouble, but I think the option will wear down Toledo in the second half, and I always fade the MAC in bowls