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Author: [College Football] Topic: !!!! CFB Bowl Games !!!!
oddsbuster send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#1
Posted: 12/5/2011 12:13:36 AM
Updated season record below:

92-66-4ytd +303.5 units (58%)...
12-6 POD's +118 units (67%)...


Last week I went 1-2 netting -24 units having just my 3rd losing week of the CFB season as it's been another profitable season. As always here's last weeks thread below...

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101200562

Looking to snag some early number's that I like as the spreads get released. BOL to everyone this bowl season...
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#2
Posted: 12/5/2011 12:39:27 AM
1st play is:

LSU -1 for 20 units... They are going to be the heavily public wager for sure so jumping on them now if you like them makes much sense. I just watched Alabama get gashed for 7.7 yards per carry on the ground on 39 carries for 302 yards against Georgia Southern. Although Georgia Southern is a 9 win team from the FCS and currently the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the Football Championship Subdivision. However the fact that Georgia Southern was able to surpass their seasonal average of 6ypc on the ground vs Alabama is rather alarming. Both LSU & Alabama held each other under 300 yards of offense in their earlier match up that LSU won 9-6. But although that final score suggests the game was close (which it was), as a viewer of that game the feeling was a definite feeling that Alabama was never going to beat LSU. I believe the National Champ is going to be the LSU Tiger's and snagging the -1 now before it get's bet up by the recreational bettor's of the world, is a smart bet for anyone who wants to wager on LSU to win... 
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#3
Posted: 12/5/2011 5:22:32 AM
nice
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#4
Posted: 12/5/2011 5:53:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oddsbuster:

1st play is:

LSU -1 for 20 units... They are going to be the heavily public wager for sure so jumping on them now if you like them makes much sense. I just watched Alabama get gashed for 7.7 yards per carry on the ground on 39 carries for 302 yards against Georgia Southern. Although Georgia Southern is a 9 win team from the FCS and currently the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the Football Championship Subdivision. However the fact that Georgia Southern was able to surpass their seasonal average of 6ypc on the ground vs Alabama is rather alarming. Both LSU & Alabama held each other under 300 yards of offense in their earlier match up that LSU won 9-6. But although that final score suggests the game was close (which it was), as a viewer of that game the feeling was a definite feeling that Alabama was never going to beat LSU. I believe the National Champ is going to be the LSU Tiger's and snagging the -1 now before it get's bet up by the recreational bettor's of the world, is a smart bet for anyone who wants to wager on LSU to win... 

The Georgia Southern game has zero relevance to this game except that it gave Alabama a little more practice defending the only thing LSU had any success with in the first match-up - the option.  And because LSU can't throw the ball against Alabama, if their option isn't working, they won't have anything to hold their hat on.

Alabama was the better team in the first match-up, and they'll be the better team this time as well.

 

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#5
Posted: 12/5/2011 5:59:09 AM
Now thats a statement! scoreboard is irrelevant. keep trying little fella.
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#6
Posted: 12/5/2011 8:37:12 AM

Respectfully disagree. It's always harder to win a rematch. The winner naturally is less focused the 2nd time around.  Let's face it: he won the first time.

But there's other thiings.  You can tell LSU is starting to believe its own hype. They fell behind 14-0 to Ark and 10-0 to UGA, but still blew out both teams.  You could tell they were sleepwalking in the 1H.  Now they'll have 30 days of non-stop behind-kissing from the media.

Then you have a very, very talented Bama stewing over the loss. 

There's no way LSU will be as focused as Bama.  These are 18-22 kids after all.

Bama by 10.  Then, everyone will say how great Bama was, and how much of a fraud LSU was.  To the victor go the spoils.

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#7
Posted: 12/5/2011 9:09:52 AM

One other thought. Everyone's ripping Bama for being an undeserving #2 team.  That talk will continue for the next 30 days. 

Whether they're undeserving or not aside (I actually think they don't deserve to be there, but who cares for this purpose), that talk will do nothing more but get Bama better focused.

These players aren't machines. Their 18-22 y.o. kids with the respective maturity level w/ such age.

 

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#8
Posted: 12/5/2011 5:09:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

The Georgia Southern game has zero relevance to this game except that it gave Alabama a little more practice defending the only thing LSU had any success with in the first match-up - the option.  And because LSU can't throw the ball against Alabama, if their option isn't working, they won't have anything to hold their hat on.

Alabama was the better team in the first match-up, and they'll be the better team this time as well.

 

The LSU team reminds me of a hungry Tiger while playing there games. If their opponent is hanging around it's only a matter of time before the Tiger unleashes fury and eat's em up...
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#9
Posted: 12/5/2011 5:10:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

Respectfully disagree. It's always harder to win a rematch. The winner naturally is less focused the 2nd time around.  Let's face it: he won the first time.

But there's other thiings.  You can tell LSU is starting to believe its own hype. They fell behind 14-0 to Ark and 10-0 to UGA, but still blew out both teams.  You could tell they were sleepwalking in the 1H.  Now they'll have 30 days of non-stop behind-kissing from the media.

Then you have a very, very talented Bama stewing over the loss. 

There's no way LSU will be as focused as Bama.  These are 18-22 kids after all.

Bama by 10.  Then, everyone will say how great Bama was, and how much of a fraud LSU was.  To the victor go the spoils.

They were stalking their prey...
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#10
Posted: 12/5/2011 5:24:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pulledclear:

Now thats a statement! scoreboard is irrelevant. keep trying little fella.
If you say so. If the scoreboard's are so irrelevant than explain this below in which I posted in another thread. I posted it because someone called me delusional for saying that Okie st should be playing the Tigers and not the Tide. I responded with this:

 Am I delusional when I say that the only 2 teams to gain 300+ yards of offense vs the Tigers was the 6th ranked offense who put up 335 yards to LSU's 273 yards and the 18th ranked offense who put up 533 yards to LSU's 366 yards. If it wasn't for the 4 turnover's one of these teams could have beat LSU. No other team has outgained the Tiger's or even exceeded the 300 yard mark except these to offensive minded teams. Both of those teams also had a combined 703 yards passing for 3 TD's against LSU. So yeah I think Okie state and that 3rd ranked offense (2nd in passing) has a much better shot at beating the Tiger's than the Crimson Tide does. Same on the BCS for not noting these stats. So with this in mind and the only 2 teams that reached 300+ yards vs LSU were top 25 offense's. We've already witnessed Alabama scratch up just 239 yards of offense vs the Tiger's in their 1st attempt. They don't have the ability to move the ball on this LSU defense and if someone was going to dethrone the Tiger's, Okie St would have much better shot IMO. Alabama will struggle because they have no passing game and only average 213 yards per game in that department ( just 91 vs LSU). 


But i'm just a littlefella so forget about all of this because he said so...
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#11
Posted: 12/5/2011 5:26:53 PM
TIGERS RAWR
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#12
Posted: 12/6/2011 2:30:24 PM
2nd play is:

Toledo -3 for 50 units... Air Force has just 5 wins against D-1 opponent's this year and not one of them have a winning record or have made a bowl game. Here are the list of teams and  records for Air Force's 5 D-1 win's...

@Navy (4-5su)
@New Mexico (1-11su)
Army (3-8su)
UNLV (2-10)
Colorado State (3-9su)

So that's a compiled opponent's record of 13-45 vs the teams Air Force had beat in D-1 play. For most of you wondering where the other 2 wins came from, Air Force had 2 more wins against the 6-5su South Dakota & 5-6 Tennessee State FCS football teams. Air Force's defense will be no match for this Toledo offense that is ranked 8th nationally in yards gained per game as they have many play maker's. Terrance Owen's & Austin Danton have lead this team to victories over bowl teams Temple & Western Michigan while putting up 199 points on 5 different bowl teams combined (Ohio st, Boise st, Temple, Western Mich & Northern Illinois).  That's an average of 39.8ppg vs teams in bowl games this season. When you have a go to wide receiver like Eric Page who caught 111 passes for over 1100 yards and 10 td's, your offense is going to have a great shot at success vs many teams. This kid can fly up and down the field and he tore up defense's all season long. I have no doubt's in Toledo in this match up at all and I give them a very high probability of winning this game by double digit's over the much weaker and one dimensional and very predictable Air Force team... POY


This is my play of the year. So i'm loading up for my largest sports wager of the season on them as i'm ready to back Toledo in a game where they have advantage's all over the field in the talent department...

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#13
Posted: 12/6/2011 3:54:27 PM

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#14
Posted: 12/7/2011 3:26:47 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by oddsbuster:

The LSU team reminds me of a hungry Tiger while playing there games. If their opponent is hanging around it's only a matter of time before the Tiger unleashes fury and eat's em up...

Except for a broken coverage, LSU could not muster a single drive against Alabama's defense.  The only thing they had any success with at all was attacking the perimeter, and with 6 weeks to prepare, Saban and Smart will take that away this time.  Passing the ball became so futile that they pretty much abandoned it entirely in the second half.  Unless LSU can score with some sort of big play(s) they may not score at all, because they aren't going to be able to sustain long scoring drives.  LSU's offense versus Alabama's defense is a mismatch.

 

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#15
Posted: 12/9/2011 9:51:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Except for a broken coverage, LSU could not muster a single drive against Alabama's defense.  The only thing they had any success with at all was attacking the perimeter, and with 6 weeks to prepare, Saban and Smart will take that away this time.  Passing the ball became so futile that they pretty much abandoned it entirely in the second half.  Unless LSU can score with some sort of big play(s) they may not score at all, because they aren't going to be able to sustain long scoring drives.  LSU's offense versus Alabama's defense is a mismatch.

 

There will be many arguments on this game leading up to the game. These same debates will most likely not stop even after the game is played. BOL...
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#16
Posted: 12/9/2011 12:21:18 PM
Good luck OB.  
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#17
Posted: 12/9/2011 3:27:36 PM

Best of Luck

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#18
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:28:15 AM

Easily one of the best cappers on covers but this play and the reasons behind it make no sense. I was at the game and I talked to several LSU fans after the game and they couldn't believe they won the game. Their offense was stifled all night. The GA Southern game was a game Bama spent no time on and that isn't a good thing going against a triple option attack. LSU attacked Bama with the speed option but I think Bama is ready for that in a month.

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#19
Posted: 12/13/2011 1:44:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by YACKER:

Easily one of the best cappers on covers

It's funny how most of the good cappers on Covers hardly get any attention.  OB certainly falls in that catagory.  Here's a little tip.

  Good cappers are generally NOT attention person!!!

  BOL this bowl season OB!!!

 

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#20
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:10:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

It's funny how most of the good cappers on Covers hardly get any attention.  OB certainly falls in that catagory.  Here's a little tip.

  Good cappers are generally NOT attention person!!!

  BOL this bowl season OB!!!

 





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#21
Posted: 12/17/2011 3:13:47 AM
New Mexico Bowl:

Temple -7 for 20 units... Wyoming has 6 wins over FBS school's with defenses that rank as follow's: 79th, 106th, 58th, 70th, 118th & 84th. Yet Wyoming's 4 losses to FBS schools all better defenses than their wins as they lost everyone of those games by double digits. Here are those games below with their opponents followed by the score of the game and defensive rank...

09/24/11 vsNebraska (14-38)L 36th ranked defense
10/08/11 @Utah St (19-63)L 50th ranked defense
11/05/11 vsTCU (20-31)L 32nd ranked defense
11/26/11 @Boise st (14-36)L 16th ranked defense

So that's an average of margin of defeat of 25.25ppg. And now they face yet an even tougher defense as the Temple Owls rank 15th nationally in yardage allowed. As long as Temple avoids turning the ball over on offense we should have a good shot at the Owls cruise to a double digit victory in this game as Wyoming is absolutely atrocious against the run as they allow 231 yards per game on the ground...POD 


I'm taking the 15th ranked defense here in this spot and fading Wyoming and their horrible results vs tough defenses. It should also be noted that Wyoming were double digit dogs in every one of those games (+20.5, +10.5, +19.5 & +32), and now we get some very nice value in only having to lay just a TD...
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#22
Posted: 12/17/2011 6:43:19 AM
You're on fire with the NFL streak, will tail this also
BOL
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#23
Posted: 12/17/2011 6:50:39 AM
GD LK ODDS
FEELING TEMPLE MYSELF
LETS START THIS DAY OFF RIGHT...
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#24
Posted: 12/17/2011 7:27:56 AM

I like Temple as well.

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#25
Posted: 12/17/2011 7:48:44 AM
Gl odds
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