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[College Football] Topic: Bowl handicapping strategies... |
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bookieassassin |
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#1 Posted: 12/4/2011 8:58:55 PM
and the other team is not ...
* has a team already achieved it's goals?...or > is there more work to be done?..
* fade the team with high hopes..that had season come crashing down late...
* fade the average team ...that closed it's season with a huge win
* play on ...a strong team that performed poorly in LY's bowl
* if neither care...OR...both do...maybe look to play total > avoid side play
2) Play on the team with the stronger "bowl coach"...fade the team that has consistently
played poorly in bowls.....some coaches just want the extra practice time to get his team ready
for next year.....some guys know how to get their team ready
3) Beware the long lay-off...fade the team that has been off for a long time...especially if playing
a team that has not ...
4) BEST BET?....pick the SU winner of the game...as that team almost always covers
***** so consider a ML play instead if you like the dog
5) Lean to the team with the stronger QB
6) Consider crowd edge and weather factors...a team from the south has maybe been able to practice
outside every day...a northern team maybe only a few..(do they have an indoor practice facility?)
also a southern team traveling to cold weather watch out....some teams travel very well...some very few make the trip..
7) In general...look to play on the team with the very strong D...fade the team with strong O and weak D
8) Fade the "bowl virgin".....a team that has never been to a bowl...or hasn't been in a long time...
is often "just happy to be there"....
9) Fade turnover prone teams..the long lay-off will not help
10) Strongly consider strength of schedule....
* use early (conference) results to help you predict later games
11) Fade the Heisman winner...not a freakish trend....a huge time commitment leaves him often fat and
looking more to NFL than playing another game..plus line is often inflated
12) Beware the team with the interim coach...you would think FADE...seems like just the opposite lately
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CapAmsShield |
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#2 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:04:50 PM |
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Laroja |
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#3 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:06:42 PM
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fsutomahawk |
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#4 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:07:37 PM
Motivation
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bookieassassin |
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#5 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:08:05 PM
* watch out for the OC/DC that leaves
Nebraska DC Pelini already gone to FAU
Houston Sumlin was/is a hot prospect
Louisville
Iowa St
S Miss
Vandy??
La Tech Sonny Dykes likely to go?......
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Laroja |
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#6 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:09:14 PM
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nc1capper |
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#7 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:11:44 PM |
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rcm1201 |
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#8 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:12:19 PM |
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nc1capper |
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#9 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:13:57 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Laroja:
Should we fade OKlahoma lol? Stoops is their coach and they came from NC aspirations to the Insight bowl against Iowa LOL.
not me ,I have these cowpokes focused and really expect a shootout here- duh- guessing jumping on the OVER at first blush maybe the safest way as I would not expect there will be many under players for that one |
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earthWake |
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#10 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:15:32 PM 
I think Southern Miss might be the most motivated team out there.
Just my opinion |
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ATLGettinPaper |
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#11 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:15:38 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
1) Try to identify a match-up where one team wants to be there > motivated to win
and the other team is not ...
* has a team already achieved it's goals?...or > is there more work to be done?..
* fade the team with high hopes..that had season come crashing down late...
* fade the average team ...that closed it's season with a huge win
* play on ...a strong team that performed poorly in LY's bowl
* if neither care...OR...both do...maybe look to play total > avoid side play
2) Play on the team with the stronger "bowl coach"...fade the team that has consistently
played poorly in bowls.....some coaches just want the extra practice time to get his team ready
for next year.....some guys know how to get their team ready
3) Beware the long lay-off...fade the team that has been off for a long time...especially if playing
a team that has not ...
4) BEST BET?....pick the SU winner of the game...as that team almost always covers
***** so consider a ML play instead if you like the dog
5) Lean to the team with the stronger QB
6) Consider crowd edge and weather factors...a team from the south has maybe been able to practice
outside every day...a northern team maybe only a few..(do they have an indoor practice facility?)
also a southern team traveling to cold weather watch out....some teams travel very well...some very few make the trip..
7) In general...look to play on the team with the very strong D...fade the team with strong O and weak D
8) Fade the "bowl virgin".....a team that has never been to a bowl...or hasn't been in a long time...
is often "just happy to be there"....
9) Fade turnover prone teams..the long lay-off will not help
10) Strongly consider strength of schedule....
* use early (conference) results to help you predict later games
11) Fade the Heisman winner...not a freakish trend....a huge time commitment leaves him often fat and
looking more to NFL than playing another game..plus line is often inflated
12) Beware the team with the interim coach...you would think FADE...seems like just the opposite lately
Damn you broke that down like a pro. I'm gonna keep that posted on my wall for the Bowl Season..
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#12 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:16:35 PM |
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bookieassassin |
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#13 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:24:50 PM
*not auto dammit....just consider in terms of disappointment.....
Okie St
OU !
HOUSTON
Texas A&M
Ariz St
Boise
Illinois
Notre Dame?
Tulsa?
Utah??
PLAY ON ?.....
Baylor***
Kan St
Texas ??....very young team that should be much better the next time we see them
Wyoming
Ark
NW
Mich St
Rutgers
Tulsa
Georgia
Fla ???
Michigan?
Clemson
Fla St?
Nebraska?
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bigmoneyg |
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#14 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:27:13 PM |
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NYCPRO |
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#15 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:31:53 PM
I loooooove bowl season  |
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earthWake |
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#16 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:32:59 PM |
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Laroja |
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#17 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:33:25 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by nc1capper:
not me ,I have these cowpokes focused and really expect a shootout here- duh- guessing jumping on the OVER at first blush maybe the safest way as I would not expect there will be many under players for that one
I'm talking about the sooners man.
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crocnzeeba |
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#18 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:38:13 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:
I think Southern Miss might be the most motivated team out there.
Just my opinion
Why so? They just won their Super Bowl, and got stuck in a crappy bowl against a mediocre team as their reward. |
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bookieassassin |
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#19 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:39:32 PM
supposedly Ole Miss is interested....
Vandy's Franklin will maybe be offered a (much) better job
*as we have seen many times....somehow a contract doesn't matter
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longhornswin |
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#20 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:40:19 PM  |
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bookieassassin |
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#21 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:41:51 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:
I agree with everything you are saying Bookie but I think Houston absolutly rolls Penn state.
only licensed shrinks...should be allowed to bet on that game....
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earthWake |
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#22 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:42:27 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by crocnzeeba:
Why so? They just won their Super Bowl, and got stuck in a crappy bowl against a mediocre team as their reward.
They feel like they should have earned a BCS bowl game by beating Houston (I don't, they do tho)
They also play great defense and I expect them to be fired up.
Their coach seemed extremly motivated in his post game conference and this should carry over to the team.
Just my opinion |
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#23 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:42:51 PM 1) Try to identify a match-up where one team wants to be there > motivated to win
and the other team is not ...
Was planning on fading a disinterested Vols team but apparently they didn't want to go Nashville or Memphis so bad that they refused to beat Kentucky to gain Bowl eligibility.  |
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gmitran |
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#24 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:43:47 PM |
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crocnzeeba |
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#25 Posted: 12/4/2011 9:50:48 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:
They feel like they should have earned a BCS bowl game by beating Houston (I don't, they do tho)
They also play great defense and I expect them to be fired up.
Their coach seemed extremly motivated in his post game conference and this should carry over to the team.
Just my opinion
Appreciate your perspective. I'm certainly not high on my Nevada Wolf Pack in that one...
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