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my new moneyline parlay strategy hitting 90%...hope i don't gt banned by my book... :)

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Prospect
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Posted: #1

bn playing 4-team moneyline parlys of home teams of at least -14 or more....pays abt even $...much less stress...

below is the link from my posted plays last wk:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=35&sub=101149363

glta

 
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Posted: #2
TEMPLE -1200
10/15/2011 @ 07:15 PM CFB [144] OREGON -550
10/15/2011 @ 12:30 PM CFB [150] WASHINGTON U -600
10/15/2011 @ 09:00 AM CFB [158] CINCINNATI U -550

this wk:

temp -1200

ore -550

wash u -600

cin -550

$200 to win $153

 

 

 
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Posted: #3

if in doubt, go back and look at the win % for hm favs of 14 or more this year.....i hv it around 95%

almost too good to be true........

 

 
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Posted: #4

If you're looking for another one:

Clemson/LSU/S Flor/ GB Packers

 

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

If you're looking for another one:

Clemson/LSU/S Flor/ GB Packers

 

i like it!!!
 
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Posted: #6
nailed it again!!! come get you some....i'll post this week's play fri nt....
 
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Posted: #7
 
Banned
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Posted: #8
153 for 200 means you're laying -131 juice per parlay.

x - 1.31y = 0
x + y = 1
x = 1.31y

y = x/1.31

x + (1/1.31)x = 1

This means you have to hit this parlay 56.7% of the time to make money in the long run.

Now you have 4 games. x^4 = 0.567

This means each game should be 86.7% likely to hit on average or 1 in 7.5. I think you may be on to something. Big favorites just don't lose enough in college to make this play a losing play

In fact, big favorites have been covering enough this year to make even 4-team parlays profitable.



 
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Posted: #9
I've been trying this as well for a couple weeks. Won two weeks ago. CMU screwed me last week. 

Looking hard at Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Hawaii this week. Temple and WMU might go in too, but roadies make me nervous. 
 
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Posted: #10
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11

This wk, thinking:

 

Stanford

Florida st

Virginia Tech

Arkansas (rd team)

 

will place on thurs when bookmaker posts moneylines....glta 

 

 

 
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Posted: #12
illinois -6.5
clemson -10.5
oka st -7.5
wiscon -7.5 

4 team parlay 10 to win 100 
 
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Posted: #13
Like you're strategy.  Another strategy that has been working for me in NFL is to do a tease on Home dawgs.  First 5 weeks had the Home dawgs at 28-2-1 covering when teased at 3 teamer, 10 points.  Home Faves covered at a rate of 37-8 in the same 3 teamer, 10 point strategy.   
 
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Posted: #14
I have done the same thing the last two or three weeks and lost them all because of one team each time.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15

here we go for this wk (let's kp this bitch blazin'!)...

FSU -900

toledo -725

lsu -1100

stanford - 1200

 

$900 to win $445

 
Prospect
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Posted: #16

Nailed it!!!! mmmhmm!!! hope everbody got u some 

 

 
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Posted: #17
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
fucking brilliant stragedy......just when i want to get out of the game...something pulls me back in....

i think some of hte people who posted on this thread might have bet on AWAY teams...... i might try this next weekend.....
 
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Posted: #19

Thanks for the props! ...let's kp crushing it!

 

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by Longhorn007:

fucking brilliant stragedy......just when i want to get out of the game...something pulls me back in....

i think some of hte people who posted on this thread might have bet on AWAY teams...... i might try this next weekend.....

you're right -- away teams went down for them....we just gotta be selective, patient, and happy with small wins and it will be profitable!  

 
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Posted: #21

How is laying 2 to 1 almost even money?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:

How is laying 2 to 1 almost even money?

 

if you play -14 favs it pays closer to even $ ...i played a few teams closer to 20 point favs

 

 
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Posted: #23

 

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by jdawg07:

here we go for this wk (let's kp this bitch blazin'!)...

FSU -900

toledo -725

lsu -1100

stanford - 1200

 

$900 to win $445

OUCH!  could've been $900 to win $9000 if you did the 4-team parlay...either way, nice hit

 
 
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Posted: #25
Nice job Jdawg07.  I also play mostly ML parlays. Ignore the naysayers. Definitely much easier going with home teams of -14 or more. I always feel less stressed playing 4, 5 or more teams to win by just one point than worrying about one game covering 14 or whatever the spread is.

Good luck. I'm waiting for college hoops. You can make a killing playing this way as big spread home teams rarely lose at home in college hoops like they sometimes do in college football (I lost a $4600 parlay payoff 2 weeks ago when #19 Tenn Tech lost SU to Tenn St at home as a 15.5 pt (-800) fav in D 1AA. Also lost a $5800 parlay payoff in wk 2 when Minn lost to New Mexico St SU at home as a 23 pt fav). Both were part of a multi team parlay.


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