"Don't handicap like that" -- words to live by

Forum: College Football
Author: [College Football] Topic: "Don't handicap like that" -- words to live by
Josh_Nagel PM Josh_Nagel
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 80
 
Josh_Nagel
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 10/12/2011 7:28:28 PM

Those precious words were spoken to me last week by none other than John Avello, the venerable oddsmaker at the Wynn Las Vegas Casino Resort.

I had contacted him as a resource for my weekly column titled “Lines That Make You Go Hmmm …” on this website, an assignment that charges me with identifying a few lines that look fishy for whatever reason.

I ran past him Missouri -3 against an undefeated Kansas State team at home, suggesting the line could have been the other way around or a pick’em at the very least.

I then confided in Avello that, despite the value I saw in the Wildcats, it was unlikely I would fire on them. They had been under the radar to this point and, I figured, about the time I jump on the bandwagon, it’s destined to blow a tire.

Without sounding condescending nor preachy, Avello replied with the following:

“Don’t handicap like that,” he said flatly. “Don’t try to look too far ahead or too far behind. Try to gauge a team in its current form and go from there.”

He basically alluded to the fact that I was doing just that by pointing out the factors I saw in that particular game. My job was to find vulnerable lines, and I had spotted a dandy. That didn’t stop me from screwing up his advice.
     
Avello's words struck me as one of those refreshing reminders that we all sometimes need, whether it’s in the fundamentals of sports betting or life.

You know, lasting lessons such as “Don’t run with scissors,” “Eat plenty of veggies” and “Do the right thing when nobody is looking.”
  
All of which fall under the umbrella of mottos that are easier said than done. We all have our moments when the basics escape us, but is there any group of people who get in their own way more than sports bettors?

I knew the question, and one of the top minds in the business confirmed my suspected answer, and how much money did I win from K-State’s 24-17 victory that wasn’t as close as the score indicated?

None, naturally. Why? Because I couldn’t get past my bias against Missouri. We all have teams or programs that are our arch nemesis, and that club has been more toxic to my bankroll than a day-old chicken McNugget is to my digestive system.

Gary Pinkel’s clubs always seem to have plenty of athletes but little in the way of mental toughness and they never, ever, ever show up in big games …except last year at home against Oklahoma, when I faded them big. The Tigers picked the following week against Nebraska to go into their familiar shell. 
     
As with most things that you deem hazardous to your health, I stay away from any and all Missouri games, even when I know better. Or when I should know better.
 
Even so, there’s something to be said for avoiding coming late to the party on a burning trend that might be ready to flame out. But perhaps it’s better to take everything on a case-by-case basis.

Despite having long known this, I’m also aware that I am overly superstitious. I would much rather handicap a game between teams that are both 3-3 ATS instead of one in which a club is 6-0 ATS against another that’s 0-6 for the money.

I can’t help but revert to thinking that probability is going to kick in at some point, most teams end up around .500 near the spread, and maybe I should back the dog because of this and …

Next time these thoughts start filling my brain, maybe I need to remember Avello’s simple words: Don’t handicap like that.

Ice4Blood PM Ice4Blood
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 11845
 
Ice4Blood
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 10/12/2011 7:53:21 PM
i pegged K St at +3 early in the week, and i bet it at that line, and all week i debated buying out of the bet, because it seemed fishy, and there was reverse line movement, and all that great garbage...

and i told myself a different motto than Avello told you, but one i have learned over the years and am doing better to try to adhere to... "Don't bet against yourself!"...

i know i am a 60-75% bettor when i stick to my guns, so why am i going to go and make a wager that goes against my own better (or bettor) judgment?

it took a lot of discipline, but i stuck with my KSU (+3), and as i watched the game, i barely ever had to sweat the game... KSU was the right side from the get-go, and my motto was confirmed!


Hustlehard23 PM Hustlehard23
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 243
 
Hustlehard23
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 10/12/2011 8:57:22 PM
Really good read guys, thanks
PlacinUnits PM PlacinUnits
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3147
 
PlacinUnits
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 10/12/2011 9:07:32 PM
One of the few wordy posts i have come across that i actually read word for word.


I have turned the corner some myself (still a "needs improvement" capper) but I use to take those lines that are fishy and try to outsmart the world.  Wisconsin -4 vs. Michigan last year is a prime example...the whole world made a fortune but me.  I was so "sharp" and they were so "square" but I thought it too good to be true.

Let's test your theory out this weekend and I'll let you know if I am a believer.

South Carolina -4.5 (bad line) over Miss State...Conner Shaw and the new boys rock this team.  ESPN and the sharp money all disagree with me...as well as some strong cappers.  I am not backing off my gut...we'll see if that is the case this weekend.


targetco PM targetco
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 69
 
targetco
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 10/12/2011 11:41:24 PM
tinoker55 PM tinoker55
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 18964
 
tinoker55
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 10/12/2011 11:50:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Josh_Nagel:

Those precious words were spoken to me last week by none other than John Avello, the venerable oddsmaker at the Wynn Las Vegas Casino Resort.

I had contacted him as a resource for my weekly column titled “Lines That Make You Go Hmmm …” on this website, an assignment that charges me with identifying a few lines that look fishy for whatever reason.

I ran past him Missouri -3 against an undefeated Kansas State team at home, suggesting the line could have been the other way around or a pick’em at the very least.

I then confided in Avello that, despite the value I saw in the Wildcats, it was unlikely I would fire on them. They had been under the radar to this point and, I figured, about the time I jump on the bandwagon, it’s destined to blow a tire.

Without sounding condescending nor preachy, Avello replied with the following:

“Don’t handicap like that,” he said flatly. “Don’t try to look too far ahead or too far behind. Try to gauge a team in its current form and go from there.”

He basically alluded to the fact that I was doing just that by pointing out the factors I saw in that particular game. My job was to find vulnerable lines, and I had spotted a dandy. That didn’t stop me from screwing up his advice.
     
Avello's words struck me as one of those refreshing reminders that we all sometimes need, whether it’s in the fundamentals of sports betting or life.

You know, lasting lessons such as “Don’t run with scissors,” “Eat plenty of veggies” and “Do the right thing when nobody is looking.”
  
All of which fall under the umbrella of mottos that are easier said than done. We all have our moments when the basics escape us, but is there any group of people who get in their own way more than sports bettors?

I knew the question, and one of the top minds in the business confirmed my suspected answer, and how much money did I win from K-State’s 24-17 victory that wasn’t as close as the score indicated?

None, naturally. Why? Because I couldn’t get past my bias against Missouri. We all have teams or programs that are our arch nemesis, and that club has been more toxic to my bankroll than a day-old chicken McNugget is to my digestive system.

Gary Pinkel’s clubs always seem to have plenty of athletes but little in the way of mental toughness and they never, ever, ever show up in big games …except last year at home against Oklahoma, when I faded them big. The Tigers picked the following week against Nebraska to go into their familiar shell. 
     
As with most things that you deem hazardous to your health, I stay away from any and all Missouri games, even when I know better. Or when I should know better.
 
Even so, there’s something to be said for avoiding coming late to the party on a burning trend that might be ready to flame out. But perhaps it’s better to take everything on a case-by-case basis.

Despite having long known this, I’m also aware that I am overly superstitious. I would much rather handicap a game between teams that are both 3-3 ATS instead of one in which a club is 6-0 ATS against another that’s 0-6 for the money.

I can’t help but revert to thinking that probability is going to kick in at some point, most teams end up around .500 near the spread, and maybe I should back the dog because of this and …

Next time these thoughts start filling my brain, maybe I need to remember Avello’s simple words: Don’t handicap like that.

Ive been trying to tell everyone on here that , but noone wants to listen,  all these guys are hung up on trends thinking thats how you handicap a game.. All i see in these threads are this team is 23-10 when the number is &*^% and so on, its a joke really..In the longrun your gonna get killed.. Great read, TY Josh..GL..
WahooS PM WahooS
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 19898
 
WahooS
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 10/12/2011 11:53:02 PM

no consiracy, no traps, no sucker lines

 

the lines are made in an attempt to get the action as equal as possible, that is the only thing that assures the books of winning

it is as simple as that, I have been trying to tell people that for years but some of them are just too convinced otherwise, it is quite funny honestly

nice read

WahooS PM WahooS
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 19898
 
WahooS
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 10/12/2011 11:53:28 PM

conspiracy

 

typo

Forum: College Football
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View