Week 5 Plays w/Writeups

YTD: 12-13-1

Week 4: 4-4 (-1.5 units)

Continuing to struggle to find traction, but, as is the case with college basketball, my style of capping is more suited to conference play. The non-conference "storm" is basically over and my bankroll hasn't taken much of a hit, so hopefully things pick up from here on out.

One play locked in at the open:

Kentucky +28.5 @ LSU (3 units)

The Wildcats are bad and LSU is very good. But LSU is in prime egg-laying territory coming off of back-to-back dominant road wins at Mississippi State and West Virginia. Now, coming home to play an early (12:00 P.M) game against SEC bottom-feeder Kentucky, I think they'll be in for a fight. Contrary to what many of you saw last night against Florida, the Wildcats have a respectable and extremely experienced defense (10/11 starters from '10 are back) and LSU's offense is not consistent enough to be laying this kind of number in-conference. Plus, Les Miles' teams generally underperform as big favorites. The Tigers have a massive tilt with Florida next week, so this game fits under both the "letdown" and "look-ahead" umbrellas. AND, LSU was just voted the #1 team in the country in the new polls. This number is at least a touchdown too high based on the last few weeks of games, particularly LSU's nationally-televised ass-kicking of West Virginia and Florida's demolition of Kentucky.

Some thoughts...

-I was hoping for 7 or less on BYU against Utah State. The Aggies suffered their second collapse of the season yesterday against Colorado State and now go into Provo on a short week to face a BYU squad that it embarrased on national TV last year in Provo. Big revenge game for BYU, but is the offense consistent enough to cover this number?

-Why is Northwestern a full touchdown dog @ Illinois? The Illini have hardly proven anything to this point and Persa may be back for the 'Cats. Big rivalry game as well. Further research and investigation needed.

-Wake is a better team than BC right now. Maybe not so if Montel Harris returns, but BC is absolutely decimated with injuries. Tanner Price is coming into his own at QB and the defense is vastly improved over its 2010 version. I thought the Deacs would be getting at least 3-4 here, but I'll wait it out and hope to pick up a better number.

-I've loved Temple the last few years but they have no track record coming off of big wins. They thoroughly dominated Maryland at the line of scrimmage but may not have the same advantage against a very solid Toledo defense. My main concern is that Toledo has played 3 straight "emotional" games against superior competition and dropped all of them. Probably better to lay off here.

-Went against Bowling Green last weekend against Wyoming but this team has a slew of quality athletes. They picked up a huge win at Miami Ohio yesterday and we may see a West Virginia hangover after the LSU game with an early kickoff and an inferior opponent. More likely to be a first-half play.

-Buffalo looks better this year and Tennessee has been terrible at covering large numbers, but the Vols did just have a bye week and may have been able to work out some of their kinks. Lots of points, but probably better to pass on this one entirely.

-Western Michigan is a better overall team than UCONN but has a bunch of injuries and I'm concerned about their state of mind after a near-miss at Illinois. UCONN's QB situation is flat out bad, so the Broncos may be worth strong consideration.

-Hard to believe I'm saying this, but Akron could be a solid play this weekend. EMU just played road games at Michigan and Penn State and was throoughly (and expectedly) beaten in both contests. Again, Akron is terrible, but EMU's offense is non-existant and is not good enough to be laying more than a touchdown against an FBS team.

-Boise first half. Enormous revenge game. Strangely early start, though, which could dampen the normally thunderous crowd. Nonetheless, Nevada's defense is really, really young and Boise is capable of coming close to replicating what Oregon did to the Wolfpack a few weeks ago at Autzen.

-Stanford laying more than 3 touchdowns against a conference opponent that is always good for one or two terrific performances every year against vastly superior competition? I don't like UCLA all that much, and it is a second consecutive road game, but this really may be too many points for a Stanford team that just lost Shayne Skov and is much younger along than the offensive line than the 2010 team.

-Washington and Utah are both somewhat unpredictable teams, but Keith Price is starting to mature as a quarterback and Utah's style of play is not conducive to laying a lot of points. I don't know a ton about either team, so more research definitely needed.

-Great fade spot for Arizona State, but OSU is so bad right now that I don't know if I can stomach backing them again after watching the Wisconsin debacle. Probably too many points, but there are better plays on the board.

-LOVE Hawaii this week in Ruston. LA Tech's pass defense is really, really bad and Moniz is capable of shredding defenses. This line may be an overreaction to Hawaii laying an egg at UNLV a few weeks ago, but LA Tech is in a shitty spot after two painful losses in back-to-back weeks. Last weekend, they blew a 3-touchdown lead against Houston and lost 35-34. Last night, they took Mississippi State to overtime as a 20-point underdog before falling, 26-20. I think they get spanked here by in an obvious letdown situation.

-Also LOVE Virginia Tech. I've been eyeing this game for a few weeks and am thrilled that Clemson just scored back-to-back wins over Auburn and Florida State. The VA Tech ground attack is positively lethal and Tahj Boyd will be making his first career road start. Lane Stadium is not a friendly place for QB's making their frist road starts. This one could be a blowout.

-I loved NM State but have no idea how New Mexico will respond after the Locksley firing. There's a pretty big talent disparity between these two teams, but it is impossible to know how the Lobos will respond to the coaching change. Pass.

-Tulsa has finally ended its murderer's row schedule and gets North Texas at home this week. I'd normally lean to the Mean Green, but it's very possible they have a hangover from their enormous win over a Big Ten team in the first game in their new stadium.

Thoughts/comments encouraged. 

Western Mich

 GL

Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:

kentucky

I dont get how LA tech is an in opbvious let down state, if anything hanging with the big boys should give them confidence and hawaii coming stateside after destroying uc davis should be in for a letdown. LA tech pretty underrated here. might take a stab at the ML myself.

Perhaps "obvious" is a stretch, but average or below-average teams that hang with far superior teams only to lose in painful fashion often suffer in the following contest. LA Tech's collapse against Houston had to hurt, but they rebounded well and took Mississippi State to overtime, in Starkville, in a game they very well could have won. Back-to-back losses of that sort are devastating. Hawaii should not be in let-down mode after beating an FCS team and I'd have to think they'll be a little more serious about going on the road after laying an egg at UNLV.

Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

Tennessee is terrible at covering large numbers MID-SEASON. They've won three straight openers by 56, 50, and 26. But the game after Florida? Double digit favorites last three years, wins by 4, 11, and 3 (OT). 

Still, losing the best offensive weapon two weeks ago means there might be a lot of experimentation here, and experimentation is unpredictable. 

If LSU hits 31, I might be with you on Kentucky. That's just too high. 

Was leaning towards a fade of the Mean Green, but you and the line are both giving me second thoughts on Tulsa. 

Considering Utah State (regardless of revenge), Oregon State Toledo, but nervous about all three.

Also loving VPI and NMSU. 

BOL. 

I'm really surprised that the Kentucky-LSU line keeps going up. That cannot be sharp action on the Tigers.

To be honest, I don't really know what to think of the North Texas-Tulsa game. Both teams are in unpredictable spots so it's probably better off left alone. Still, 22 does seem a tad high.

Northwestern +7.5 @ Illinois (2 units)

Lots of things to like about the Wildcats this week in Champaign and I am thrilled to be getting more than a touchdown (expected 3-4). All-conference QB Dan Persa is slated to return and says he feels absolutely ready to make his 2011 debut. This game is turning into one of the more heated rivalries in the B10, especially after Illinois routed NU, 48-27, at Wrigley Field last season. Persa ruptured his achilles in that game. Afterwards, Illinois players stated that they, not Northwestern, represented "Chicago's Big Ten school." Predictably, those comments haven't sat well with Northwestern, which will be coming off of a bye week after losing to Army at West Point last weekend. Schematically, Northwestern has one of the best offensive lines in the conference and should not have the same protection problems that Arizona State experienced agains the Ilini. Persa also has excellent mobility, which should help the protection. Money line play here as well as I think these two teams are perfectly-matched, though Northwestern has a big psychological advantage with Persa returning and revenge on the mind.

To be honest I don't care if Hawaii beat UC-Davis 10-7 or 75-0. Davis is a medicore FCS team that will have little to no impact on Hawaii's performance this Saturday in Ruston. Hawaii's receiving corps is not quite as lethal as last year, but the system consistenly produces one of the nation's most prolific passing games and LA Tech was absolutely abhorrent against the pass last season. This year, they were torched by Case Keenum and Houston and hung in last night's game because Mississippi State's one-dimensional offense was incapable of exposing the holes in the LA Tech secondary.

And no, I'm not underestimating LA Tech. I watched the game last night and was very much impressed with their resiliency and moxie against a more physically talented opponent. Their quarterback, a 17 year-old true freshman, is mature beyond his years. It's just a bad spot, plain and simple.

Clemson @ Virginia Tech -6.5 (3 units)

I've been eyeing this one up for a few weeks and am not running the risk of it potentially going higher than a touchdown. It could drop another point, but I don't think it'll ultimately matter. Pure spot play against Clemson coming off the home wins against Auburn and Florida State as well as Boyd making his first career road start. Too much VT running game and a few big plays by Frank Beamer's special teams units end up being the difference.

Jfen -

Fyi, Persa ruptured his achilles in an upset win against Iowa last year...not even sure if Persa showed up on the sideline the next week in Wrigley..that being said, still love NW. 

I love WF, too.  I even like them at a pick. Have a sneaky feeling WF will be -2.5 at kick. Get them now at a pick

Ahh OK thank you for the clarification. I misread one of the articles and thought he sustained the injury during the Illinois game.

You're spot on with the Wake Forest pick, IMO. I'm holding tight for the time being to see if Montel Harris plays, but it seems like it could be a game-time decision. Either way, Wake looks like the better team right now given BC's poor quarterback play, disheveled O-line, and multitude of injuries.

GL this week.

Also LOVE Virginia Tech. I've been eyeing this game for a few weeks and am thrilled that Clemson just scored back-to-back wins over Auburn and Florida State. The VA Tech ground attack is positively lethal and Tahj Boyd will be making his first career road start. Lane Stadium is not a friendly place for QB's making their frist road starts. This one could be a blowout.

I totally agree with you, everyone is going to be on Clemson because they beat two of the most over rated teams in the nation.  Dont get me wrong they are pretty damn good, but can they do it on the road at tech?  This is usually a insane place to play a night game for any road team. 

Current Leans

BYU -8, Wake Forest PK, Akron +8, Boise 1H, Washington +7, Oregon State +17.5, Hawaii +3.5, Rice +15.5

Moving away from my Rice and Wake leans. Too much blowout potential with the explosive Southern Miss offense and the Wake-BC line moved to Wake -2. Still like the Deacs, but I think I missed the boat there.

Also going to take a closer look at Minnesota +20 as I like the Gopher defense and feel Jerry Kill will have his squad ready for its biggest game of the young season.

Quote Originally Posted by totter:

Fen  just be careful of the Gophers,I lived in MN for 47 yrs,and that program is terrible now,as it has been in years past. I really thought Kill would have this team alot better this year,but they are are bad as last year,and they just lost again to ND St last week. Their def will have no answer for Robinson. It pains me to see this team in such shambles as it is now. I really don't think they get another win this year. A real sad time to be a Gopher Fan,but then My Vikings seem just as bad this year,not being able to hold a lead.   Good Luck this week      

Agreed, Totter. I'd love to fade Michigan right now but Minnesota is probably just too much of a mess. The Gophers could cover, but it would probably be more due to a Wolverines lapse.

Speaking of the B1G...

Nebraska +10 @ Wisconsin (2 units)

Not a big play here but too many points to give a Nebraska team that possesses a championship-caliber defense and a proven running game. Martinez is still a below-average passer, but Wisconsin has generated a whole lot of hoopla for a team that has beaten South Dakota, UNLV, Oregon State, and Northern Illinois. I think they'll be in for a stiff test against the Huskers. And yes, Camp Randall will be rocking, but 10 points? Maybe I'm falling into a trap here, but I'm going to be kicking myself if I don't play it.