NCAA Football Week Four (YTD 14-5)

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Author: [College Football] Topic: NCAA Football Week Four (YTD 14-5)
aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/18/2011 11:31:01 PM

YTD Record: 14-5 / 73.68% / 13.10 units
Texas A&M Record: 3-0 / 100.00% / 4.51 units

I am getting started early this week with my first locked in play:

Texas A&M -3 +100 (3 units):
At first glance, some may think this is a homer pick, but trust me, that is not the case.  Let me just say that I have the utmost respect for the Oklahoma State offense.  In fact, they do scare the heck out of me.  But, with that said, there defense is a bit of a train wreck.  Some may say that the offense has been putting up so many points that maybe the defense is playing more prevent, but good defenses do not give up over 410 yards per game against lesser competition as Oklahoma State has thus far.  While, I know it is early, the three offenses that Oklahoma State has played thus far are ranked 38th, 54th and 114th in total offense.  So, it isn't like these are offensive juggernauts.  Meanwhile, Texas A&M will bring the best offense that the Cowboys will have faced to date with a balance of run and pass.  Not only is it the best offense they have faced to date, but it is an offense that has yet to go to page 2 of the playbook this year.  Against Idaho for example, they ran only three different run plays.  Further, on the flip side of the ball, while no one would confuse A&M's defense with Alabama or one of the other elite defenses, they are much better than what the Cowboys are bringing in.  Add-in the fact that this game is at Kyle Field (which is always a tough place to play), and I just think the Ags win this one by 10-12 points.  I could see this one being something like 42-31. 

WahooS PM WahooS
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Posted: 9/18/2011 11:55:54 PM

Whoooooooop!

night game at Kyle Field, gonna be electric and very loud

Weeden is inclined to throw picks, the Ags need to get pressure and force his hand

best of luck

Hotrod0310 PM Hotrod0310
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Posted: 9/19/2011 12:02:04 AM

I was leaning the same way, but wanted to see your thoughts first!

I agree, go with the better D & home field advantage!

Great start to the year, keep it up!

BOL this week Aggie  

WahooS PM WahooS
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Posted: 9/19/2011 12:05:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hotrod0310:

I was leaning the same way, but wanted to see your thoughts first!

I agree, go with the better D & home field advantage!

Great start to the year, keep it up!

BOL this week Aggie  

if the fans were closer to the field this would be the best homefield advantage in college football, I went to a game there and couldn't believe my eyes, those fans are some of the best in the country, it is really loud and a great homefield advantage

constant chanting, cheering, standing, the works

Arid_Torpor PM Arid_Torpor
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Posted: 9/19/2011 12:07:31 AM
If this stays at three throughout the week, I plan on being with you with the Aggies. Not touching it at 3.5 or greater. Hoping this +100 mess means it might drop a hair. Fingers crossed. 

BOL, Aggie. And welcome to God's Conference. 
aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/19/2011 6:58:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WahooS:

Whoooooooop!

night game at Kyle Field, gonna be electric and very loud

Weeden is inclined to throw picks, the Ags need to get pressure and force his hand

best of luck

It is not actually a night game, which pisses me off as ABC decided to go to WVU-LSU instead.  With that said, the crowd should still be electric.

aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/19/2011 6:58:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

If this stays at three throughout the week, I plan on being with you with the Aggies. Not touching it at 3.5 or greater. Hoping this +100 mess means it might drop a hair. Fingers crossed. 

BOL, Aggie. And welcome to God's Conference. 

Thanks Arid.  I can't wait.  I am sure we will take some hits at first (in football only as we should be fine in all other sports), but hopefully we can get caught up to you guys after a couple of years.

Spreader777 PM Spreader777
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Posted: 9/19/2011 7:25:54 AM
okst defense is going to play like total garbage.  if that's not enough, don't worry, qb weeden gonna throw several picks

be happy if you see line up to -6 or -7!  i am on it all day baby!  aggies gonna do some aggitatin'!!!






Onthereal PM Onthereal
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Posted: 9/19/2011 7:51:20 AM
Really like the Aggies in this one. gl this week.
aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/19/2011 11:42:29 PM

Second locked in play:

Arizona State -3 +100 (1 unit)
Last week, I faded ASU against Illinois, but that was primarily because they were just in a bad spot.  This is still a good team with a lot of talent.  They should be able to regroup at home against a decent (but not great) Trojan team.

 

aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/19/2011 11:42:59 PM

Texas A&M -3 +100 (3 units)
Arizona State -3 +100 (1 unit)

jshep PM jshep
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Posted: 9/19/2011 11:48:30 PM
been looking into this game; Texas A&M, and i think you are on the right side. though okst is a pretty darn good team, i think the home advantage will play a nice little role in it. BOL on your bets this weekend
Arid_Torpor PM Arid_Torpor
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Posted: 9/19/2011 11:50:47 PM
Aggie, I wasn't able to get -3 with A&M, which was where I was hoping to land. What are your thoughts on how high to take them and whether or not the line will get back. I said I wouldn't touch it at 3.5, but I also feel like it's the right side. Going back and forth trying to figure out how/whether to play this one, and any insight is appreciated. Also leaning on the Sun Devils. 
DrJack PM DrJack
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Posted: 9/20/2011 12:05:31 AM
 BOL this week Aggie.
aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/20/2011 11:48:46 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

Aggie, I wasn't able to get -3 with A&M, which was where I was hoping to land. What are your thoughts on how high to take them and whether or not the line will get back. I said I wouldn't touch it at 3.5, but I also feel like it's the right side. Going back and forth trying to figure out how/whether to play this one, and any insight is appreciated. Also leaning on the Sun Devils. 

Where is the line at now?  If 3.5, I would buy the hook.  I likely would play it up to 5 or so.  I think Oklahoma State is a good team, but given the way we lost last year and the fact that the majority of those guys are back, I think we will be looking for revenge in this one.  I still think the Ags win by 10 points or so, so take that for what it is worth.

Arid_Torpor PM Arid_Torpor
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Posted: 9/20/2011 12:10:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by aggieaccountant:

Where is the line at now?  If 3.5, I would buy the hook.  I likely would play it up to 5 or so.  I think Oklahoma State is a good team, but given the way we lost last year and the fact that the majority of those guys are back, I think we will be looking for revenge in this one.  I still think the Ags win by 10 points or so, so take that for what it is worth.


It's at 4 now. I went ahead and grabbed the 3.5 (-115) because my SBR spreadsheet told me the choice would be taken away from me soon. I tend to agree with your analysis of the game, I'm just hoping the hook doesn't kill me. But paying -130 for 3 just seemed like too much. 
aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/20/2011 10:20:58 PM

Adding:

Wyoming +24 -120 (2 units)
I didn't notice this the first time I was going through the lines, but after going through the games a second time, this one stuck out.  First off, let me just say that I feel there is no way Nebraska comes away with a loss in this one.  But, I do think this is a bad spot for them.  First off, Nebraska is undefeated, but they haven't been real impressive in getting to that point.  Second, Wyoming is not an easy place to play.  With the high altitude teams that aren't used to it can struggle a bit.  Third, Wyoming is off to a good start going 3-0 thus far.  Finally, Nebraska has Wisconsin on deck and thus we might have a classic lookahead spot hear.

aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/20/2011 10:21:18 PM
Texas A&M -3 +100 (3 units)
Arizona State -3 +100 (1 unit)

Wyoming +24 -120 (2 units)
Arid_Torpor PM Arid_Torpor
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Posted: 9/20/2011 10:40:52 PM
Likely to be on all three 
Lar1212 PM Lar1212
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Posted: 9/21/2011 7:32:21 AM

I was leaning over on A&M/Ok St...

SportsFreak69 PM SportsFreak69
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Posted: 9/21/2011 3:05:44 PM
Best of Luck
Wolfgangtuff PM Wolfgangtuff
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Posted: 9/21/2011 3:42:44 PM

arz st-3

tx a&m -3

cant trust nebraska for or against

aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/21/2011 10:44:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lar1212:

I was leaning over on A&M/Ok St...

I initially was thinking about 72-73 points, which would put it slightly over.  But, after thinking about it more, I would go under.  I could see this being a 38-28 type game, which would put us 4 points under the number.  The reason why I am changing my tune is my thinking about how A&M would play this one.  I expect them to grind it out and try to control the line of scrimmage right from the start.  In turn, this should run the clock.  Now, both teams will score, but if one team slows it down with an over/under this high, it is tough to hit it.

aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/21/2011 10:45:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wolfgangtuff:

arz st-3

tx a&m -3

cant trust nebraska for or against

I don't disagree, but I like Wyoming moreso than disliking Nebraska.

aggieaccountant PM aggieaccountant
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Posted: 9/21/2011 10:47:28 PM

Adding:

Cincinnati -7 -125 (1 unit)
I bought the hook, but hopefully I won't need it.  I don't have a lot to say about this one other than the fact that I love the situation with this being a home revenge game for Cincy.  Further, it is a thursday night game, and I can't help but like the home team.

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