This Cant Be Real Life! ND @ UM

So I step back in to shower up and get enjoy tonight's festivities and I look at the lines for next week's CFB games. Low and behold I see the Notre Dame is -4.5 fav at the Big House in the Michigans' first ever night game there.

Now I am no rookie in this game and I know that ND always plays subpar the week b4 UM and I even was thinking of taking them as a dog come Sat night. But Vegas has completely lost their minds with this line. Either that or they want ALL UM money in this one. There is absolutely no way they get even money on this game. ND homers/alums cant even justify being -4.5 point fav in the Big House. Just for the sake of argument last year Wisconsin after hanging 83 points at home against Indiana was opened as a-5 fav in the Big House. UM a year later with a conceivably a better defense (they cant POSSIBLY be any worse from last years campaign) they are getting +4.5 against ND?

This is outlandish on so many fronts. I had a post last year upholding Wisconsin's line to the many that thought it was a trap game.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100883104&page=1

Researching line spreads in the Big House 20 years back. This line is simply outrageous for the simply fact that UM has only been a dog at home 5 times in the last 21 years (dating back to 1990).   5 times!!!! and those teams were

1995 #1 and undefeated OSU as -8 favs (upset loss)
1998 PSU -3  (27-0 loss to UM)
2009 #8 OSU -10 (21-10)....UM was PATHETIC this year
2010 #15 Iowa -3.5 38-28 win over UM
2010 #7 Wiscy -5.5  48-28 annihilation

Vegas is now telling us that this semi decent ND team is more than a FG...hell more than 4 points better than UM in Ann Arbor! There is NO WAY this game is not closer to -3 by Saturday night!

I hope many will look into this game because this cant be right. This is the line that 5dimes has up and I am not sure if this is their own made up line or the official line. Regardless I hope this post sparks interest in a bad line.

Vegas is probably right. ND played a much better game filled with many mistakes. ND's "D" looked good and that's the key to beating michigan. ND will and should score often on Michigan's defense. Michigan's offense will do some damage, but the'll get stopped a least one less time than ND.

Good writeup, ND wins rather easily though.

it's going to blow your mind when the spread goes up to -5 by Tuesday

So let me get this right. Last year the juggernaut team known as Wisconsin barely went over -5 and had this board as well others calling it a trap line and everyone blindly taking UM. Now fast forward this year and an OVER=RATED ND team.

 *I call them over-rated not because of their play last week but because they are always over-rated and ill=prepared early in the season*

When ND is good as a team, they remind me of VT. Lose an early game or 2 then run the table (albeit those losses to USC). I would of much rather ND looked sharp and won last week then for them to look like they did. I honestly wanted to take ND as a pick or small dog. Now that they are -4.5...even as a pure value play I have to take UM. ND as a -200 fav on the road against their #2 rival is a JOKE, its disrespectful in some sense. Home field in this rivalry means a TON...and a -4.5 spread suggest that the Big House has no advantage or that this ND team is an elite team.

Alot of this will come down to coaching...UM needs to devise a plan to DOUBLE Michael Floyd and take him out of the game and force Rees to throw the ball somewhere else. Doubling in college ball is very complex and that type of complexity Im not sure if that UM defense can perfect by Saturday night. Outside of that UM has more homerun ability then ND and are a faster team...and need I mention Shoelace.

No way in hell I could bet on Michigan in this game, ND outgained USF badly and if they had not made every unreal mistake in the book would have won easily. Kelly offense is capable of picking Michigan apart, even though I love the Mattison hire and they will keep getting better but facing ND's offense is not what they want to see right now.

ND is ALWAYS over-rated. Can't stand 'em.

As for the line, if it wasn't rigged we'd all be multi-billionaires by now wouldn't be? I don't touch low spreads in college.

I'm playing the over if it is below 100

Lined opened really low like -2 and got beat up, I'm sure those were squares/public money moving that line.

lol

Smoke, I have two things for you:

vegas wants people to think that notre dame is good as the preseason rankings gave them, notre dame is a popular team so when vegas knows that they are not and still can get people to bait into the idea that they are they give this shit...they got 10 versus south florida and lost by 10 ... they are a favorite on the road for a big game at michigan . no way should they be favored.  the play is clearly michigan.

-JJ- i respect ur opinion but U ARE CRAZY here,

1st off, ND lost by 3
2nd they outgained USF 508-252
3rd they had 5 Turnovers, 3 inside the 5 yd line

AND THEY STILL HAD A CHANCE TO WIN

anyone who knows me know that i HATE notre dame. they are arrogant, overrated and they just arent that good anymore, but this line is beggint for michigan action and the bookies are gonna clean up house on this one, because everyone i know LOVES michigan in the game,


ND is the play here, or nothing....im sure ill pass

i'll just stop posting my thoughts on an open forum board .....

i didn't bother watching the end of game and you are right about the stats...ii'm not a stat guy, i aced statistics in college, i assumed it was over at half time .......

BUT ...... this doesn't explain why they are favored at Michigan...don't forget that Michigan is SUPPOSED to be alot better this year too and ND is favored by 5 at Michigan for their first night game...i think Michigan has the clear advantage and if people keep pounding ND but this SUPPOSED to be the year that Notre Dame is going to be really good again as the line movement indicates and you see it get closer to 7, just enough to buy a point or a halfy ... the play is MI.

They both suck ...Mich sux more...

Notre Dame wins this game by at least 2 scores, its going to be humbling for Michigan in the big house. However, you don't even have to play that, just play the over and be done with it.

consider this:  As bad a Rich Rod's teams were in Ann Arbor, UM won the past two meetings by 4 points each.  ND had a decent offense last year and everone knows how bad the mich D was yet they still got the W.  Home field is worth a field goal in this game every year.  Once again ND is overrated by everyone in the media.  Big House fans need something to get excited about and this "first night game" will be it.  It's not a trap, just typical ND bullshit, even in vegas. 

2010 - Michigan 28, Notre Dame 24

great point.  UMs run game will keep ND offense off the field and eat up clock.  i couldn't agree with you more!

this is exactly what i have been trying to say.....please tell me this gets closer 7...but regardless i will be on michigan at 5

 

I'll tell you what can't be real. NIU-5.5 to Kansas and Stanford -19/20. Forget these coinflip games lol.

we will C 

Looking at game stats not seeing where USF had great running success.  BJ Daniels had best average for USF at 3.1 y/c.  Also Cierre Wood played very well for ND at RB although they have a significant lack of depth at RB.