nostradamus week 1

Forum: College Football Page 1 of 6  1 2 3 4 5   »
Author: [College Football] Topic: nostradamus week 1
nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 9506
Virginia
 
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:04:05 PM

back for our 5th season looking forward to another football season

good to see many vets from previous years back again

using 3 books this year...bookmaker, heritage (transfer from the greek) and 5 dimes...went from 2 to 3 books and continuing to maintain hefty offshore bankrolls...guess the US government is really winning...looking forward to having thiird option..quite a bit of variation on openers between 5 dimes and BM...locked in a few already starting with the chalk

Florida -31 (2 units)

Oklahoma -20 (2 units)

Auburn -21 (-115) (1.5 units)

Texas -21.5

checking out several others

trgrs34 PM trgrs34
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 0
Texas
 
trgrs34
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:17:16 PM
love ou pick. im die hard au fan should cover 21, will wait for line to drop to 19/20 for me. heat will be factor
Posted using a mobile device.
Arid_Torpor PM Arid_Torpor
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2590
North Carolina
 
Arid_Torpor
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:19:13 PM
I liked Utah State at +26, I don't know what I think at +21. Not playing any of the other three, but fading FAU as a road dog is never a bad decision. 
nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 9506
Virginia
 
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:26:52 PM

tgrs - good point on the heat...was thinking the same thing with the noon start and humidity...aggies might be looking for the bus in the 2nd half, we might be the only two on the war eagle as many seem to like USU

arid - true FAU nonconf road is pretty well known, although have improved some over past couple yrs against UAB, Mich St, probably comes down to how much Brantley has improved or not under new offense

Georgia +3.5

LSU +3 (hook)

although most already know to avoid question in future....hook = bought half pt

nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 9506
Virginia
 
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:28:39 PM
hard to believe the variation on the LSU-Oregon number...BM has ducks as 2.5pt fav while some other books have them as 2.5-3 pt dog
JFen31 PM JFen31
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8016
United States
 
JFen31
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:36:49 PM
I'm likely on Auburn as well, Nos. Liked 'em at -27 and really like them at -22. The talent/speed differential is exhorbitant and Utah State has a downright putrid secondary. The Tigers are young, but everybody and their mother thinks they're on to something brilliant by "fading" them all season. I have a feeling they end up with a winning record ATS...
cant_win_em_all PM cant_win_em_all
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 703
Alabama
 
cant_win_em_all
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:46:29 PM
As a recent Auburn grad i love the play
cant_win_em_all PM cant_win_em_all
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 703
Alabama
 
cant_win_em_all
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:47:11 PM
As a recent Auburn Grad I love the play.
nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 9506
Virginia
 
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:58:01 PM

cancel that I guess the other books now have Oregon favored as well...thought LSU was favored 2.5 last night...was there a bus crash

jfen, cant - true everyone is heavy agains them..should get better as season progresses as long as Trotter (or Mosely) is decent...like the RBs matching up against USU run defense in first one, only concern is untested QB or if young defense gives up garbage late

Michigan -14 (hook)

Colorado +6

checking out a couple more

nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 9506
Virginia
 
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:05:54 PM

adding

Missouri -16

Mississippi +3 (-115)

Bowling Green +8 (0.75u)

No Texas +14 (0.75u)

that should be enough damage...might look at one other game or a couple totals later....BOL all

Arid_Torpor PM Arid_Torpor
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2590
North Carolina
 
Arid_Torpor
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:06:27 PM
There have been a whole lot of lines moving like crazy. Auburn, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, regular Illinois, and Oregon have all had lines move 4+ points in their direction since yesterday. 

With you on both Michigan (I have it at 14.5) and Colorado (I have it at 7). Tend to favor LSU if they're getting points, but haven't played it.  
nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 9506
Virginia
 
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:08:02 PM
as with previous years unless marked otherwise wagers are for one unit
Arid_Torpor PM Arid_Torpor
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2590
North Carolina
 
Arid_Torpor
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:08:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:

I'm likely on Auburn as well, Nos. Liked 'em at -27 and really like them at -22. The talent/speed differential is exhorbitant and Utah State has a downright putrid secondary. The Tigers are young, but everybody and their mother thinks they're on to something brilliant by "fading" them all season. I have a feeling they end up with a winning record ATS...

I wasn't trying to fade Auburn, I was trying to play Utah State, just because they're a team that's played very well as a road dog over the past two years. (8-2, including 7-0 with lines of 17+). But all the people who are trying to fade Auburn have ruined the line. 
jmitseff PM jmitseff
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 15301
Oregon
 
jmitseff
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:09:04 PM
Card looks good with the exception of Bowling Green.
nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 9506
Virginia
 
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:11:05 PM
arid - yeah tends to be a lot of movement early although seems earlier this year...saw Colorado at +7 on 5 dimes last night dorked around waiting for BM and got stuck with +6
nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 9506
Virginia
 
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:13:34 PM

arid - true aggies have been good road dog lately....especially at getting the back door

jmit - yeah keeping BG and UNT smaller amounts since trust neither one

Arid_Torpor PM Arid_Torpor
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2590
North Carolina
 
Arid_Torpor
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:13:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

arid - yeah tends to be a lot of movement early although seems earlier this year...saw Colorado at +7 on 5 dimes last night dorked around waiting for BM and got stuck with +6

I did the same thing on Utah State and Army (except dicked around waiting for Bet Islands). Could've had +26 and +12.5 and now they're at +22 and +9. Debating whether they're even still plays. Did get CU and NW before the moves though. 
JFen31 PM JFen31
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8016
United States
 
JFen31
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:20:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:


I wasn't trying to fade Auburn, I was trying to play Utah State, just because they're a team that's played very well as a road dog over the past two years. (8-2, including 7-0 with lines of 17+). But all the people who are trying to fade Auburn have ruined the line. 

I hear ya on that point and will definitely be backing Utah State on more than one occassion in WAC play. I like their O-line and receivers but have a ton of questions about the quarterback and secondary play. Auburn appears down in both of those areas, as well.

But as far as Auburn is concerned...There comes a certain point when a team everyone perceives as overvalued actually becomes undervalued.

jmitseff PM jmitseff
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 15301
Oregon
 
jmitseff
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:21:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

arid - true aggies have been good road dog lately....especially at getting the back door

jmit - yeah keeping BG and UNT smaller amounts since trust neither one

 

 I think the vandals completely crush the WAC this year not that is saying much.

Arid_Torpor PM Arid_Torpor
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2590
North Carolina
 
Arid_Torpor
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:24:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:

I hear ya on that point and will definitely be backing Utah State on more than one occassion in WAC play. I like their O-line and receivers but have a ton of questions about the quarterback and secondary play. Auburn appears down in both of those areas, as well.

But as far as Auburn is concerned...There comes a certain point when a team everyone perceives as overvalued actually becomes undervalued.


Agreed. Auburn is definitely overvalued in the polls, and I was hoping some of it would translate to the lines. So far, that hope has gone unrewarded. The line hasn't gone down far enough to make Auburn a play, but it's getting pretty damn close. Hoping for some public action to push it back up before game time, but that might be a vain hope. 
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 7132
Texas
 
bookieassassin
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:33:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

hard to believe the variation on the LSU-Oregon number...BM has ducks as 2.5pt fav while some other books have them as 2.5-3 pt dog

..
fastest / largest line move ever ?
at 5 Dimes.....5 points in 1 hour..............??

c'mon man where's USC?.......
love that Michigan....was thinking 17-20ish....a week 1 gift?....
      (yes boys they exist ...occasionally)
Lean .....I mean MEAN Green are back! .....FIU already squirming in very uncomfortable  DD fav role....

best of luck man.......
jmitseff PM jmitseff
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 15301
Oregon
 
jmitseff
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:41:19 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


..
fastest / largest line move ever ?
at 5 Dimes.....5 points in 1 hour..............??

c'mon man where's USC?.......
love that Michigan....was thinking 17-20ish....a week 1 gift?....
      (yes boys they exist ...occasionally)
Lean .....I mean MEAN Green are back! .....FIU already squirming in very uncomfortable  DD fav role....

best of luck man.......

 

Are you a longhorn fan?

cherokee10 PM cherokee10
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 4536
Ohio
 
cherokee10
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 6:04:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

probably comes down to how much Brantley has improved or not under new offense

Let's face it, he can't be any worse than he was during ly's opener...but with a year under his belt....gators should cover this by halftime, I'll prbly bite.

 Nos

nc1capper PM nc1capper
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 16348
North Carolina
 
nc1capper
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 6:14:07 PM
sup No's- you will play some chalk, and I admire you for it - more of a dog player myself as you know - must agree on North Texas tho, that may be my only play of the opening week, will fire on Northwestern as well if I can get 7.5 or better--GL this season buddy --
Boom_Boom PM Boom_Boom
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 17041
South Carolina
 
Boom_Boom
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/6/2011 6:17:50 PM
NOS its a great time buddy...


Love the Oklahoma  Play


BOL This year buddy
Forum: College Football Page 1 of 6  1 2 3 4 5   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.