Messages

Forum Index : College Football : Messages Page 1 of 6  1 2 3 4 5   »
Author: [College Football] Topic: nostradamus week 1
nostradamus12 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 8592
Location: Virginia
#1
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:04:05 PM

back for our 5th season looking forward to another football season

good to see many vets from previous years back again

using 3 books this year...bookmaker, heritage (transfer from the greek) and 5 dimes...went from 2 to 3 books and continuing to maintain hefty offshore bankrolls...guess the US government is really winning...looking forward to having thiird option..quite a bit of variation on openers between 5 dimes and BM...locked in a few already starting with the chalk

Florida -31 (2 units)

Oklahoma -20 (2 units)

Auburn -21 (-115) (1.5 units)

Texas -21.5

checking out several others

quote
trgrs34 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
trgrs34
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 0
Location: Texas
#2
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:17:16 PM
love ou pick. im die hard au fan should cover 21, will wait for line to drop to 19/20 for me. heat will be factor
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
Arid_Torpor send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Arid_Torpor
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2590
Location: North Carolina
#3
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:19:13 PM
I liked Utah State at +26, I don't know what I think at +21. Not playing any of the other three, but fading FAU as a road dog is never a bad decision. 
quote
nostradamus12 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 8592
Location: Virginia
#4
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:26:52 PM

tgrs - good point on the heat...was thinking the same thing with the noon start and humidity...aggies might be looking for the bus in the 2nd half, we might be the only two on the war eagle as many seem to like USU

arid - true FAU nonconf road is pretty well known, although have improved some over past couple yrs against UAB, Mich St, probably comes down to how much Brantley has improved or not under new offense

Georgia +3.5

LSU +3 (hook)

although most already know to avoid question in future....hook = bought half pt

quote
nostradamus12 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 8592
Location: Virginia
#5
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:28:39 PM
hard to believe the variation on the LSU-Oregon number...BM has ducks as 2.5pt fav while some other books have them as 2.5-3 pt dog
quote
JFen31
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
JFen31
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 7396
Location: United States
#6
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:36:49 PM
I'm likely on Auburn as well, Nos. Liked 'em at -27 and really like them at -22. The talent/speed differential is exhorbitant and Utah State has a downright putrid secondary. The Tigers are young, but everybody and their mother thinks they're on to something brilliant by "fading" them all season. I have a feeling they end up with a winning record ATS...
quote
cant_win_em_all send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
cant_win_em_all
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 619
Location: Alabama
#7
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:46:29 PM
As a recent Auburn grad i love the play
quote
cant_win_em_all send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
cant_win_em_all
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 619
Location: Alabama
#8
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:47:11 PM
As a recent Auburn Grad I love the play.
quote
nostradamus12 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 8592
Location: Virginia
#9
Posted: 8/6/2011 4:58:01 PM

cancel that I guess the other books now have Oregon favored as well...thought LSU was favored 2.5 last night...was there a bus crash

jfen, cant - true everyone is heavy agains them..should get better as season progresses as long as Trotter (or Mosely) is decent...like the RBs matching up against USU run defense in first one, only concern is untested QB or if young defense gives up garbage late

Michigan -14 (hook)

Colorado +6

checking out a couple more

quote
nostradamus12 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 8592
Location: Virginia
#10
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:05:54 PM

adding

Missouri -16

Mississippi +3 (-115)

Bowling Green +8 (0.75u)

No Texas +14 (0.75u)

that should be enough damage...might look at one other game or a couple totals later....BOL all

quote
Arid_Torpor send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Arid_Torpor
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2590
Location: North Carolina
#11
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:06:27 PM
There have been a whole lot of lines moving like crazy. Auburn, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, regular Illinois, and Oregon have all had lines move 4+ points in their direction since yesterday. 

With you on both Michigan (I have it at 14.5) and Colorado (I have it at 7). Tend to favor LSU if they're getting points, but haven't played it.  
quote
nostradamus12 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 8592
Location: Virginia
#12
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:08:02 PM
as with previous years unless marked otherwise wagers are for one unit
quote
Arid_Torpor send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Arid_Torpor
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2590
Location: North Carolina
#13
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:08:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:

I'm likely on Auburn as well, Nos. Liked 'em at -27 and really like them at -22. The talent/speed differential is exhorbitant and Utah State has a downright putrid secondary. The Tigers are young, but everybody and their mother thinks they're on to something brilliant by "fading" them all season. I have a feeling they end up with a winning record ATS...

I wasn't trying to fade Auburn, I was trying to play Utah State, just because they're a team that's played very well as a road dog over the past two years. (8-2, including 7-0 with lines of 17+). But all the people who are trying to fade Auburn have ruined the line. 
quote
jmitseff
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
jmitseff
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 14582
Location: Oregon
#14
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:09:04 PM
Card looks good with the exception of Bowling Green.
quote
nostradamus12 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 8592
Location: Virginia
#15
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:11:05 PM
arid - yeah tends to be a lot of movement early although seems earlier this year...saw Colorado at +7 on 5 dimes last night dorked around waiting for BM and got stuck with +6
quote
nostradamus12 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nostradamus12
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 8592
Location: Virginia
#16
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:13:34 PM

arid - true aggies have been good road dog lately....especially at getting the back door

jmit - yeah keeping BG and UNT smaller amounts since trust neither one

quote
Arid_Torpor send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Arid_Torpor
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2590
Location: North Carolina
#17
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:13:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

arid - yeah tends to be a lot of movement early although seems earlier this year...saw Colorado at +7 on 5 dimes last night dorked around waiting for BM and got stuck with +6

I did the same thing on Utah State and Army (except dicked around waiting for Bet Islands). Could've had +26 and +12.5 and now they're at +22 and +9. Debating whether they're even still plays. Did get CU and NW before the moves though. 
quote
JFen31
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
JFen31
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 7396
Location: United States
#18
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:20:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:


I wasn't trying to fade Auburn, I was trying to play Utah State, just because they're a team that's played very well as a road dog over the past two years. (8-2, including 7-0 with lines of 17+). But all the people who are trying to fade Auburn have ruined the line. 

I hear ya on that point and will definitely be backing Utah State on more than one occassion in WAC play. I like their O-line and receivers but have a ton of questions about the quarterback and secondary play. Auburn appears down in both of those areas, as well.

But as far as Auburn is concerned...There comes a certain point when a team everyone perceives as overvalued actually becomes undervalued.

quote
jmitseff
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
jmitseff
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 14582
Location: Oregon
#19
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:21:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

arid - true aggies have been good road dog lately....especially at getting the back door

jmit - yeah keeping BG and UNT smaller amounts since trust neither one

 

 I think the vandals completely crush the WAC this year not that is saying much.

quote
Arid_Torpor send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Arid_Torpor
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2590
Location: North Carolina
#20
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:24:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:

I hear ya on that point and will definitely be backing Utah State on more than one occassion in WAC play. I like their O-line and receivers but have a ton of questions about the quarterback and secondary play. Auburn appears down in both of those areas, as well.

But as far as Auburn is concerned...There comes a certain point when a team everyone perceives as overvalued actually becomes undervalued.


Agreed. Auburn is definitely overvalued in the polls, and I was hoping some of it would translate to the lines. So far, that hope has gone unrewarded. The line hasn't gone down far enough to make Auburn a play, but it's getting pretty damn close. Hoping for some public action to push it back up before game time, but that might be a vain hope. 
quote
bookieassassin send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bookieassassin
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 5636
Location: Texas
#21
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:33:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

hard to believe the variation on the LSU-Oregon number...BM has ducks as 2.5pt fav while some other books have them as 2.5-3 pt dog

..
fastest / largest line move ever ?
at 5 Dimes.....5 points in 1 hour..............??

c'mon man where's USC?.......
love that Michigan....was thinking 17-20ish....a week 1 gift?....
      (yes boys they exist ...occasionally)
Lean .....I mean MEAN Green are back! .....FIU already squirming in very uncomfortable  DD fav role....

best of luck man.......
quote
jmitseff
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
jmitseff
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 14582
Location: Oregon
#22
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:41:19 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


..
fastest / largest line move ever ?
at 5 Dimes.....5 points in 1 hour..............??

c'mon man where's USC?.......
love that Michigan....was thinking 17-20ish....a week 1 gift?....
      (yes boys they exist ...occasionally)
Lean .....I mean MEAN Green are back! .....FIU already squirming in very uncomfortable  DD fav role....

best of luck man.......

 

Are you a longhorn fan?

quote
cherokee10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
cherokee10
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 4367
Location: Ohio
#23
Posted: 8/6/2011 6:04:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

probably comes down to how much Brantley has improved or not under new offense

Let's face it, he can't be any worse than he was during ly's opener...but with a year under his belt....gators should cover this by halftime, I'll prbly bite.

 Nos

quote
nc1capper send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nc1capper
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 15744
Location: North Carolina
#24
Posted: 8/6/2011 6:14:07 PM
sup No's- you will play some chalk, and I admire you for it - more of a dog player myself as you know - must agree on North Texas tho, that may be my only play of the opening week, will fire on Northwestern as well if I can get 7.5 or better--GL this season buddy --
quote
Boom_Boom send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Boom_Boom
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 15917
Location: South Carolina
#25
Posted: 8/6/2011 6:17:50 PM
NOS its a great time buddy...


Love the Oklahoma  Play


BOL This year buddy
quote
Forum Index : College Football : Messages Page 1 of 6  1 2 3 4 5   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.