Bowl Thread 2010 (continued)

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Bowl Thread 2010 (continued)
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 12/28/2010 12:44:45 AM

Figured I would start a new thread, the other one was too long to navigate....

I dont bet leans, just unit plays have wagers.  All wagers will be between 1 and 5 units.

Record:

Down 5 units / Up 5.5 units

1.  BYU -11.5 (lean)
2.  Fresno ML +105 (1 unit)  LOSS
3.  Troy -2 (3 units)  WIN
4.  S Miss +3 (lean)
5.  Utah +17 (2 units)  LOSS
6.  SD St -4.5 (2.5 units)  WIN
7.  Hawaii -10 (lean)
8.  FIU ML +110 (lean)
9.  G Tech +3 (2 units)  LOSS
10.  WVU -3 (4 units)
11.  Missouri -2.5 (1 unit)
12.  MD -7 (2 units)
13.  Baylor PK (3 units)
14.  AZ +4.5 (lean)
15.  Army +7 (lean)
16.  KST +1 (2 units)
17.  UNC -1.5 (lean)
18.  Wash +14 (2 units)

20.  Notre Dame +3 (3 units)

27.  TCU -2.5 (5 units)

Will fill in the rest soon....  Will be back to discuss them tomorrow.....

GL all

GL all

1bajalife PM 1bajalife
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Posted: 12/28/2010 1:01:16 AM
U think WV get it done tomorrow. Can you give a quick summary why? I was leaning NC State. 
YoungMoolaBaby PM YoungMoolaBaby
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Posted: 12/28/2010 1:22:36 AM
Vanzack - I like the new thread!  Way easier to navigate than the old one, gl on ur card
misfits PM misfits
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Posted: 12/28/2010 1:26:38 AM
would love to hear a little reasoning on TCU over wisky if you get a chance. gl tomorrow
KittyKatz286 PM KittyKatz286
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Posted: 12/28/2010 1:38:36 AM
love to see the 5 units on TCU, might be the biggest play of my life (was probably gonna be before I saw your confidence, but this seals the deal)
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 12/28/2010 1:39:46 PM

Its freezing in Orlando!  Cold night tonight.

 

zcoach99 PM zcoach99
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Posted: 12/28/2010 2:02:26 PM
WV is your biggest bet so far. Reasoning?
BigEastExpert PM BigEastExpert
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Posted: 12/28/2010 2:08:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Its freezing in Orlando!  Cold night tonight.

Van, colder than nornal but the temp goes from 55 to about 45 as the game progresses with a 6:30 pm start.

Winds are very light.

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 12/28/2010 2:13:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigEastExpert:

Van, colder than nornal but the temp goes from 55 to about 45 as the game progresses with a 6:30 pm start.

Winds are very light.

Im here.  Not very windy, but it is really cold.  I think it will be colder than 50 tonight.

Woke up this am and everything had frost, there was even ice in some places.

Anyway, not cold to bother the teams, just might be miserable in the stands if WVU gets beat.

GL

brewha42 PM brewha42
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Posted: 12/28/2010 2:15:21 PM
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 12/28/2010 2:15:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by zcoach99:

WV is your biggest bet so far. Reasoning?

Honestly, it is mostly a numbers play.

WVU defensive stats are off the charts.  Even adjusted for strength of opponent they are off the charts. The only way I see NCS covering this one is to score 20+, and I just cant make a case for that - and my stats model supports it.  I have NCS at a 82% probability to score 18 or less.

Almost every stat favors WVU - and that is adjusted stats for strength of opponent.

Most of this does not take in to the coaching issues you are talking about - and to be fair - they can be significant or immaterial.  The thing is, I cant put a value on it.  Year after year we have these, and to my knowledge overall they even out - teams with assistants coaching and teams with lame duck coaches do not do any better or worse than expected (to my recollection, maybe someone could provide some solid stats).  I just dont know how to value it, so personally I ignore it as noise.

WVU 31 NCS 14

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 12/28/2010 2:57:27 PM

Heading out to the game.  If a fan rushes the filed to block a game winning FG for NCST, someone please call the Orlando jail with bail money.

Hugh_Jorgan PM Hugh_Jorgan
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Posted: 12/28/2010 2:59:01 PM
I have not yet placed my wager on NC St, and not quite sure how much I will bet.
No better place than a vanzack thread for discussion.

IMO … WV's defensive superiority has been built on having more speed than the feeble offenses of the Big East. They have yet to see the team speed that State will trot out onto the field. If you have not yet seen it, you can not properly prepare for it. 

Also, this is one of those games that you need to take into consideration the HC's … Tom OBrien is 7-1 in bowls, including 4-1 as a bowl dog. The guy knows how to prepare his teams for bowl games. Big 'sideline' edge goes to The Wolfpack. 

Lastly, State was 5-1 as a dog this year, so they seem to like this spot.

WV has a solid D, but I see NC St scoring between 24 - 28 points, which should be enough.
Hugh_Jorgan PM Hugh_Jorgan
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Posted: 12/28/2010 2:59:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Heading out to the game.  If a fan rushes the filed to block a game winning FG for NCST, someone please call the Orlando jail with bail money.


vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:07:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

I have not yet placed my wager on NC St, and not quite sure how much I will bet.
No better place than a vanzack thread for discussion.

IMO … WV's defensive superiority has been built on having more speed than the feeble offenses of the Big East. They have yet to see the team speed that State will trot out onto the field. If you have not yet seen it, you can not properly prepare for it. 

Also, this is one of those games that you need to take into consideration the HC's … Tom OBrien is 7-1 in bowls, including 4-1 as a bowl dog. The guy knows how to prepare his teams for bowl games. Big 'sideline' edge goes to The Wolfpack. 

Lastly, State was 5-1 as a dog this year, so they seem to like this spot.

WV has a solid D, but I see NC St scoring between 24 - 28 points, which should be enough.

Agree with coaching edge - and it bugs me and probably will bug me all game.

Disagree somewhat with you perception that NCST will be able to move and score - I just cant ignore the stats - some things like WV gets a ton of sacks and NCST gives them up - speed on D should limit Wilsons ability to scramble - and I just cant ignore the stats - even when adjusted for Big Least ineptitude.

My wager is predicated on NCST scoring under 20.  WVU is not going to win a shootout - I dont think (but crazier things have happened).

GL tonight.

dabuckster PM dabuckster
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:07:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

I have not yet placed my wager on NC St, and not quite sure how much I will bet.
No better place than a vanzack thread for discussion.

IMO … WV's defensive superiority has been built on having more speed than the feeble offenses of the Big East. They have yet to see the team speed that State will trot out onto the field. If you have not yet seen it, you can not properly prepare for it. 
 
 
 
Only gave up 20 points to LSU in their house  They are solid on D.  Should be a good game.GL

Also, this is one of those games that you need to take into consideration the HC's … Tom OBrien is 7-1 in bowls, including 4-1 as a bowl dog. The guy knows how to prepare his teams for bowl games. Big 'sideline' edge goes to The Wolfpack. 

Lastly, State was 5-1 as a dog this year, so they seem to like this spot.

WV has a solid D, but I see NC St scoring between 24 - 28 points, which should be enough.
brewha42 PM brewha42
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:15:19 PM
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:16:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by brewha42:

ozzwald PM ozzwald
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:16:48 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KittyKatz286:

love to see the 5 units on TCU, might be the biggest play of my life (was probably gonna be before I saw your confidence, but this seals the deal)

That's ballsy.  Have you seen WISCONSIN's offensive stats their last 4 games?

TCU has played NOBODY notable : Sorry, Utah doesn't count.

San Diego St is pretty solid this year but they gave TCU all they wanted.

Sorry... not trying to shoot anybody's picks down... just don't see why TCU is favored with their joke of a schedule.

Yes, they are #1 on Defense... and I'm sure they were last year too... when they were -3 over Boise St & lost by a touchdown.

I'm thinking similar results this year except instead of Boise it's gonna be da Badgers.

BOL

Hugh_Jorgan PM Hugh_Jorgan
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:22:22 PM
"Only gave up 20 points to LSU in their house  They are solid on D.  Should be a good game.GL"



This is not a very strong argument for WV's defense.

Enjoy the game, vanzack 
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:23:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ozzwald:

That's ballsy.  Have you seen WISCONSIN's offensive stats their last 4 games?

TCU has played NOBODY notable : Sorry, Utah doesn't count.

San Diego St is pretty solid this year but they gave TCU all they wanted.

Sorry... not trying to shoot anybody's picks down... just don't see why TCU is favored with their joke of a schedule.

Yes, they are #1 on Defense... and I'm sure they were last year too... when they were -3 over Boise St & lost by a touchdown.

I'm thinking similar results this year except instead of Boise it's gonna be da Badgers.

BOL

Will get in to details later - heading out to the game in a few mins - but some highlights of the position....

Wisconsin's SOS is not significantly better than TCU.

TCU's stats are NOTABLY better than Wisconsin, even AFTER strength of opponent adjustements.  In fact, I have TCU as a -13 point favorite in this game statistically. 

Offense, defense, and special teams all favor TCU - even after adjustments.

Just bullet points, can discuss further - and can honestly see the Wisky side of this (I think I have read more favoring W than TCU), but I cant ignore what I see in the stats.

phark PM phark
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:32:18 PM
Good stuff in this thread, I am leaning NCST, Russell Wilson is the real deal as a college qb.
ApocalypseLater PM ApocalypseLater
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:47:07 PM
looks like we're back on the same page for most of the remainder of this bowl season... interested to see how the rest of that list fills out...


KktdocT PM KktdocT
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:49:31 PM
BustinPiles PM BustinPiles
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Posted: 12/28/2010 3:53:05 PM

Good luck this bowl season  

I had to share this with you I got my kid a telescope for X-mas, now i can really be a "Caveman looking at the stars" 

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