47-23 last 70 posts&plays....Boisie pending.....Northwestern @ Wisconsin...huge writeup and play.

I love this game and although I rarely lay these types of wood (case/point losing Oregon today) this just is too good to pass up and sort of feels like stealing

As predicted and played last week in the Illinois over Northwestern game at Wrigley, the Wild Cats are in trouble with THEIR OFFENSE out for the rest of the year in their QB Persa and relying on a freshman to go into Wisconsin and pull off a win or even a close game.

In addition there are alot of other angles that will keep Wisconsins foot on the pedal and are motivated to roll the score up on Northwestern......ALOT OF MOTIVATION.

Let me point out that this will be my LARGEST play of the last month and although I will fall short of saying GAME OF THE YEAR if you want to measure my plays based on the amount of money I wager this is the largest amount for the year.

Angles & motivation: With a victory they will earn atleast a share of the Big 10 title for the first time in 11 years....not a big deal because they will win its just a matter of how much.

The human part of the BCS polls like to see style if they agree or not to that statement. Wisconsin is not afraid of running up the score as the 83 points against Indiana proves.

The Badgers owe the Wildcats some payback afterr losing last year and getting a lower bowl position to NW.

Northwestern on Offense: Really have to throw out the team stats since the offense is gone....seriously gone. With the Senior leader Persa having a career year in passing a mind boggling 73.5% completion rate, 15 tds, only 4 picks, is very mobile by leading the team at the time he was injured with 519 yards rushing and 9 rushing tds....how the hell do you replace that??

Well, Evan Watkins is a 6'6 pocket passer with no mobility? NO....may be a good prospect as a freshman but no time to get him up to speed as a freshman that wasn't expected to have ANY meaningful snaps at all this season. He threw for 135 yards last week with 1 pick (that was amazing with only 1 pick). Northwestern is almost LAST in protecting the QB ranked #116 in sacks allowed.........uh oh! His first starting road game will be at Wisconsin, damn that's not going to be easy.

NW Special Teams: #88 in ko returns (this will matter as they will have a minimun of 7 returns, #32 in punt returns, #86 in FG kicking.

NW Defense: They were SCORCHED last week against Illinois and the run. Illinois had 519 yards on the ground!!! WTF???

They are #94 in sacks, #85 in pass defense, #82 in rush defense, #84 in total defense, but #51 in scoring defense.......the scoring defense is partially due to injured QB Persa keeping the defense off the field, which won't happen on Saturday.

Wisconin on Offense: #12 in rusing offense, #73 in passing (only because they run so well, #23 in total offense and #7 in scoring offense.

Scott Tolzien QB is underated and flies under the radar. This senior leader just manages the offense and doesn't turn the ball over....he has a very HIGH IQ. Completion percentage ofe73.9%, 12 tds and 6 picks. Scott has thrown for 93% last week against Michigan and 83% against Indiana the week before....seriously?? Oh, and he threw for 81% against Ohio State!!

Running backs Clay, White and Ball have a combined rushing total of 2510 rushing yards and 39 touch downs...AMAZING!!

By the way the Badgers are #20 in sacks allowed, #23 in turnover margin and #44 in FG's incase they need to kick at all.

Wisconsin Defense: #29 in rushing defense, #34 in pass defense, #59 in sacks, #26 in total defense and #7 in scoring defense....not good for the Wildcats.

Defensively they held Michigan to 28 at Michigan ( not real impressive but pretty good), and 18 to Ohio State. At home they only allow an average of 16 points.

Intersting tidbits: Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS last 5 or 6-2 last 8 vs. Northwestern 1-7 ATS last 8.

Senior day for Wisconsin. 14 seniors and the chance to go undefeated at home for the 11th time in team history.

Northwestern Defensive Coordinator Mike Hankwitz was fired by Wisconsin Head Coach after the 2007 season. Although it sounds like Hankwitz would be more motivated, just the opposite as Wisconsin Head coach would like to prove  promoting Doeren to Defensive Coordinator was the right move.

Wisconisn has been accused of running up the score against Minnesota first by going for a 2pt conversion with a 25 point lead and less than 7 minutes to go against the Gophers......and obviously 83 points was questioned against Indiana.

Taking Wisconsin Badgers -22.5  (buying the 1/2 point at -120 to avoid possible push)

Not enough points . This has 51-7 written all over it.

Sure, sorry guys havent checked my email thats associated to this account for quite awhile. Heading there now, nothing personal

I understand, and I hate to explain, but I cause so much grief when I don't explain as people are looking at their personal books as though they are getting screwed so believe me it's best I explain to keep all the conspiracy theorists away.

Quote Originally Posted by Mayfield44:

Good stuff man. This is what this site is supposed to be about. Giving info for others to use either for or against. I have been looking for you more and more. I will be tailing you on this one.

I'm with you......I just like to post what I play and not post a ton of games. Beleive me I even have my tipping points where I'll fire back at people who want to disagree......but thats typically when I've had a few drinks or my wife is up my ass (kidding wife).

Why keep all the stats and reasonings to myself if it can benefit others......and I seriously mean "benefit"........of course my plays will be slightly slanted towards why I made my play, but then again someone else may look at my reasoning and go the other way....either way if we can all lean towards making plays with facts vs. "feelings" its the winning way.

Good luck

this sounds nitpicky, but that doesnt change anything

Taking Wisconsin Badgers -22.5(B 1/2)

thats all you need

Seriously??? If you didn't know Persa was hurt you might want to look at how you wager NCAAF since this would likely have an effect on the outcome dont' you think? Good luck as you can always get lucky, but I find it's best to know about the teams I'm betting on in key positions........such as.....the QB that was injured and involved in over 80% of their scoring for the year.

It does when I care about what others may do based on my play. I'm not EVER going to post something that I didn't play and to be dishonest in the spread could cause someone to wager more or less on the game based on false numbers.

Pick and play your own, but I won't change my posts.