I know Wahoos has large money on Cincinnati and that definitely makes me nervous but I feel like I know Big East football better than the majority on this forum. I am a 5th year Senior at RUTGERS! Oh and yes, I posted Rutgers to upset Uconn a few weeks back. anyways moving on...
I have yet to lock anything in but I will be making a move on USF plus the points and may take them on Moneyline as well. I have so many reasons to support my pick and will try to fit in as much as possible... Here it goes.
First, I would like to key in on an important factor that a lot of other people have brought up: B.J Daniels 10 interceptions.
Since Skip Holtz has taken over, he has tried to transition the Bulls into a new offensive scheme in an effort to make B.J Daniels a pocket passer. Obviously, the transition has been rough. A lot of people are thinking that B.J Daniels will continue to struggle and throw picks but I think he should turn it around tomorrow.
If you look at season statistics, 7 out of 10 of Daniel's interceptions came against two top tier defenses: 4 picks were @ the swamp and 3 were last week @ West Virginia. Florida right now is tied for first with 13 interceptions this season and West Virginia is currently ranked 4th in points per game, 5th in yards per game, 9th in passing yards... you get my point. It is true, Daniels has struggled tremendously against top tier defenses but Cincinnati does not have a top tier defense and will not be able to exploit Daniels' weakness. Personally, I think Cincinnati's pass rush stinks. So far, Cincinnati only has two interceptions and are allowing a whopping 366 yards per game and 257 yards passing per game. The last time Cinci defense matched up against a mobile qb, they gave up almost 500 yards and almost 300 yards passing. Daniels &USF offense isn't on the same level as Russel Wilson & N.C state but I look for a better offensive performance out of USF tomorrow vs. a softer defense.
A lot of people are pointing to the fact that USF lost to Syracuse and are automatically writing off any chances for USF tomorrow. College football is all about situations and USF was in a terrible situation against Syracuse. Some people call the spot a "look ahead". Although they were at home, USF had a ranked West Virginia on deck with just five days ahead. Kind of similar to the look ahead spot Oklahoma was in vs. Cincinnati with Texas on deck. Also, although they got throttled last week by Pitt, Syracuse is much improved this season with a 4-2 record.
For this game against Cincinnati, I think USF is in a completely different spot. Some people like to call it a "revenge" situation. Last year, USF was 5-0 going into week 6 on cloud 9 and got their asses handed to them by Cincinnati 34-17. Ironically, this was the first time Zach Callaros got to play after Tony Pike went out with an injury. The breaking point in the game was in the third quarter, 17-10, when Callaros broke out for a 75 yard run. I still remember how shell shocked the USF defenders were. I recently read an article where a USF defender said " We didn't even know who he was." I am sure now they do and I think all the USF defenders who played in that game are eagerly waiting for their second chance. Not to mention, USF is 0-2 in Big East play and is dying for their first Conference win. Personally, I think Skip Holtz is a great coach and I think he is looking at this game to be his first major victory with the USF program. In the past five years, Cincinnati has owned USF but Brian Kelly and Jim Levvitt are gone and these programs are completely different.
One consistency this year so far has been USF's defense as they are ranked 17th is scoring defense and 24th in sacks. They held Noel Devine last week to 29 yards on 13 carries and on the road held WV to 79 total rushing yards. I am excited to see how they perform against a Cincinnati O-line that has given up 19 sacks this year. The O-line has significantly improved the past three weeks but I think USF will bring a ton of pressure on Collaros and hold Pead to under 100 yards rushing.
Finally, I think a big edge that a lot of people are missing is special teams. When capping games, I look for x-factors and in this game I think the x-factor for USF will be their special teams vs. Cincinnati. USF's special teams has been one of it's major strengths.
Vs. Syracuse, Lindsey Lamar returned a kick for 94 yards
Vs. Western Kentucky, Mitchell returned a punt for 67 yards
Vs. Western Kentucky, Lamar returned a kick for 55 yards
Vs. Florida, Lamar returned a kick for 39 yards
On the other side, Cincinnati's special teams has been garbage this year. Currently, they have seven walks on playing on special teams and it has showed. Cincinnati ranks 85th in the country in kickoff coverage giving up 22.8 yards per return. I look for Lamar to have some nice returns and give USF good field position tomorrow.
I have a ton more but I feel like a loser because I have been doing this write up for a long time so I am ending this but I have a play brewing on USF plus the points and a strong lean on USF ml