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Author: [College Football] Topic: Thursday Night Write Up
goscots56
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#1
Posted: 9/21/2010 8:05:27 PM

Miami and Pittsburg

Here we go…..everyone gets their butt kicked last week on the road fav (Cal v. Nevada) so they automatically think fade Miami.  Well, I'm not a big fan of playing ESPN Thursday Night trends, because I don't think last weeks game has any affect on this week's!  And even thought I like the thought of trying to find some way to take Pitt, because I think Miami can be prone to killing themselves (see OSU), I think there are too many things that bother me about the Pitt team to take them in a big game where they are out manned athletically, and even though Miami may make some mistakes…..speed kills and they have the athletes that can make up for it.

If you read my write ups, you know I always look at the OL v. DL (front 7), and I give this advantage to Miami.  Yes, Pitt did have 2 stud defensive ends.  The key word there is DID, as defensive stud Romeus is out indefintely due to back surgury.  It could be a long night if they can't but pressure on Harris.  However, this might not be a night were Harris airs it out much as Miami's smallest lineman is 6-4 300.  Yes they may be young….but you can’t teach size and athletic ability.  Pitt looks to be lite up the middle, as both of their DT’s weigh 275 and they start a sophomore middle linebacker.  Establishing the run, should not be a problem for the Canes.

The Miami defense will be flying around, and should be nothing like Pitt’s sophomore (1st year starter) QB has seen.  The holes in the zone won’t be open long, and he’s not the threat to run like  Pryor was.  Miami does start three sophomores on defense, but it’s their DT and 2 Safeties….with one of them being 6-4 220!  Give Pitt the advantage on protecting the QB, as they have 2 bookend tackles and led the Big East is sacks allowed last year.   But they did give up 2 sacks to NH and threw an INT, I believe this is due to their inexperienced QB and not their OL.  They may be strong at Tackle, but they have issues at and guard as their center is a former walkon, and their guards are young and undeveloped.  And with a 310 pound NG and 3 stud lbs, if Miami can stop the run, they should be able to get some pressure up the middle.  I know Pitt has Dion Lewis but he only has 102 yards on 35 carries.  His issues may come from his undermanned Center and Guards, and he is going to need one heck of a performance for Pitt to have a chance in this one.

With all of that being said……I have yet to get to the reasons why I am confident in Miami……or better yet….not confident in Pitt.

The reasons for making this play!

Miami held OSU to 4 field goals.  Even though OSU had some success moving the ball, most of that was due to Pryor’s legs (as he was only 12-27 passing) and once OSU crossed midfield, Miami’s D bowed up and made them settle for FGs.  If they can do this at Pitt, they can cover.

In Pitt’s 2 games this year, they are 8-24 on third downs (33%) which tells me that their offense is not running very efficiently.  While their defense is only holding their opponents to 15-31 on third downs (48%) which means they can’t get off the field (New Hampshire was 8-17).  As well, NH rushed for 4.1 ypc, and Utah rushed for 6.4.  Like I said, if Miami can run the football….watch out!

Pitt is playing at home, and I know you guys like the home dogs on Thursday night.  Of course anything can happen, but Miami is going to have to beat themselves, as I don’t see a team that only converts 33% of their 3rd downs, gives up 50% third down conversions, is allowing 5 yards per carry and is missing their best defensive player beating them.  Had Miami beat OSU, I could see them being set up for the fall….but Randy Shannon rights the ship, and they don’t miss out on a second chance to show themselves to a National Audience.

One other note, in Miami's only Thursday night game last year, they beat GaTech's A$$!

Miami -3

BOL
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#2
Posted: 9/21/2010 8:11:13 PM

Good write up,
I like Miami too but (-3) looks too easy


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#3
Posted: 9/21/2010 8:19:16 PM
Thanks for the write up. With you on the Canes! 
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#4
Posted: 9/21/2010 8:19:58 PM
you are on the right side. playing thur and fri night road favs is dangerous but not in this case. miami will win easily!
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#5
Posted: 9/21/2010 8:26:29 PM
miami needs this one BADLY...The U!
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#6
Posted: 9/21/2010 8:32:39 PM
Coach W prepares for these games like his job depends on it. Also Miami's hopes for an unbeaten season are over so all they care about is winning the SEC. The Hurricanes will lose by 10 points.
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goscots56
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#7
Posted: 9/21/2010 8:44:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Yanidis:

Coach W prepares for these games like his job depends on it. Also Miami's hopes for an unbeaten season are over so all they care about is winning the SEC. The Hurricanes will lose by 10 points.


WOW, did you just say all Miami cares about is the SEC!!!!

I take a substantial amount of time breaking down a game and you attempt to discredit it in 5 seconds with saying a coach who makes over 2 million a year prepares for a game like his job depends on it.  Let me give you a little pointer.....all coaches in BCS conference schools jobs depends on winning!
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#8
Posted: 9/21/2010 8:48:10 PM
when did miami join the sec you fool  nice writeup  goscots gl
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goscots56
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#9
Posted: 9/21/2010 8:55:08 PM
Forgot to mention

20-5 ATS YTD

I posted 16-3 ATS last Saturday and went 5-2, so I should be 21-5, but I had somehow made a mistake during week one when adding up my record.....so at the start of Saturday I should have been 15-3.

Not that it makes that big of a difference.....but I just don't want to keep going on this tear and some donkey double check my record and make a huge deal out of 1 game.

BOL

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#10
Posted: 9/21/2010 9:06:19 PM
I am a die hard PITT fan. To start the year there is no doubt this game was a lovely addition to Pitt's schedule. I thought they would beat UTAH, and be undefeated coming in here and lose to Miami at home. That was with a strong RB and full complement of defensive weapons. Well, Romeus is out, and has not played well anyways, and Dion Lewis has looked terrible. Yes Ray Graham played well again the I-AA powerhouse New Hampshire at home, but the Offensive line is not put together well. It has showed. The Defense is still a good squad, but I think they will struggle. I hate it, but I am all over MIA. GL
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#11
Posted: 9/21/2010 9:20:34 PM
Very nice write up. I locked in Miami this morning while the line was -3.  GL
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#12
Posted: 9/21/2010 10:01:22 PM

Great writeup and analysis!!

Anytime you spend this much time to do analysis and research.  You will lose a few, but win more games in the long term.   This why I like Covers forum.  Share their research, find miss match, find an edge to cover the points!!! 

Keep up the great work and thanks for sharing your analysis and research.   I can only do research on 2 or 3 games per week.

There are alot of idiots on this forum.  They just to like bash other people analysis and research.  They have no contribution other than being an idiot.

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#13
Posted: 9/21/2010 10:14:50 PM
Nice write-up and great season so far.

I'm laying off the game as I don't trust the overrated ACC and am not willing to give Pitt pts at home where they are 7-3 ats their last 10.

Two interesting trends concerning line and total movement in Miami games. These are quite a bit higher than most teams.

The betting public is correct when moving the line in MIAMI games 30.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (7-16)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in MIAMI games 66.7% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (14-7)

good luck on the pick, stay hot!!!
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#14
Posted: 9/21/2010 10:23:39 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by goscots56:

Forgot to mention

20-5 ATS YTD

I posted 16-3 ATS last Saturday and went 5-2, so I should be 21-5, but I had somehow made a mistake during week one when adding up my record.....so at the start of Saturday I should have been 15-3.

Not that it makes that big of a difference.....but I just don't want to keep going on this tear and some donkey double check my record and make a huge deal out of 1 game.

BOL

Shhh

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#15
Posted: 9/21/2010 10:43:13 PM
Hey goscot,

  I took all your picks last weekend and did very well.  Do you usually pick games with a winning percentage of 80%(including your 3-0 streak from NFL Sunday) or are you just on a hot streak?
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#16
Posted: 9/21/2010 11:40:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pottleade1:

Hey goscot,

  I took all your picks last weekend and did very well.  Do you usually pick games with a winning percentage of 80%(including your 3-0 streak from NFL Sunday) or are you just on a hot streak?


Are you kidding me?


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#17
Posted: 9/21/2010 11:41:50 PM
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#18
Posted: 9/21/2010 11:47:16 PM
great writeup. line gone to -4 already
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#19
Posted: 9/21/2010 11:48:39 PM
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#20
Posted: 9/22/2010 12:36:34 AM
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#21
Posted: 9/22/2010 12:42:10 AM
  goscots56, do you have any big plays for this weekend?  Or are all your plays the amount?  Thanks and good luck! 
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#22
Posted: 9/22/2010 12:44:25 AM
I agree. I'm all over Miami LARGE!!!! Miami easily wins by more than a TD.
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#23
Posted: 9/22/2010 1:08:03 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Ron_Chains:

Nice write-up and great season so far.

I'm laying off the game as I don't trust the overrated ACC and am not willing to give Pitt pts at home where they are 7-3 ats their last 10.

Two interesting trends concerning line and total movement in Miami games. These are quite a bit higher than most teams.

The betting public is correct when moving the line in MIAMI games 30.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (7-16)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in MIAMI games 66.7% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (14-7)

good luck on the pick, stay hot!!!

You dont trust the over rated ACC?? who the hell has them rated highly? every time i hear any talk about the ACC it's bad..and rightfully so..but the Big East also sucks so it's not like you are asking Miami to go to somewhere in the SEC to get a road win..they are playing a solid Pitt team that Miami is just better than.

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#24
Posted: 9/22/2010 5:21:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jasontc:

You dont trust the over rated ACC?? who the hell has them rated highly? every time i hear any talk about the ACC it's bad..and rightfully so..but the Big East also sucks so it's not like you are asking Miami to go to somewhere in the SEC to get a road win..they are playing a solid Pitt team that Miami is just better than.

You are right. But both teams are poorly Coached, especially Miami. They are turning into who I thought they were. Dave on the other hand may be slowly getting it.

Miami should out man, speed them on D-Fense. But that QB...  Chicken Bones is all he is and he sucks. Miami is not going to win with that guy except at Home. Honestly I seen that picture of him in an Oakland Raider Jump suit. He looks like a male crack ho.

I will take the points "5" at home.

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#25
Posted: 9/22/2010 5:34:41 AM
Like your write-ups but I cant touch this game, its too  for me.
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