!!!!! I smell another Nevada disaster !!!!!

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Author: [College Football] Topic: !!!!! I smell another Nevada disaster !!!!!
oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 9/17/2010 2:12:34 AM

5th play is:

California -2.5 for 7 units... The first thing I wanted to go back and see when researching this match-up was Nevada's past result's vs non-conference D-1 teams after Colin Kaepernick took over as the starter midway through the 07-08 season when Nick Graziano went down with an injury that opened the door for Colin Kaepernick. Sure enough as I suspected since Colin Kaepernick has taken over the Wolfpack are a horrible 2-8su and 2-8ats non-conference opponents. Those 2 wins came against the same team twice as they beat their instate rival UNLV a team they have handled now for 5 straight years in a row. So taking UNLV out of those out of conference games the Wolfpack are a perfect 0-8su and 0-8ats. In those 8 games the Wolfpack have allowed 39.375ppg on defense and only averaged 15.25ppg on offense getting shutout twice. The list of games are below:

Saturday 12/22/07 @ New Mexico L 0-23 L 2 (bowl game)

Saturday 09/06/08 Texas Tech L 19-35 L 10.5

Saturday 09/13/08 @ Missouri L 17-69 L 26

Tuesday 12/30/08 vs Maryland L 35-42 L -2.5 (bowl game)

Saturday 09/05/09 @ Notre Dame L 0-35 L 14.5

Saturday 09/19/09 @ Colorado State L 20-35 L -5

Friday 09/25/09 Missouri L 21-31 L 7

Thursday 12/24/09 vs Southern Methodist L 10-45 L -10.5 (bowl game)

I don't now what you guys are seeing but all of this pretty much tells me that the 108td's and all those yards that Colin Kaepernick has provided for Nevada that over 90% of them were all within the conference or against lessor opponents. Talk about not winning the big game for this team. Most of their failure pretty much rests on the shrugging shoulders of their horid defense as they could'nt stop any of these teams from scoring. When looking at Cal's team for this play I only needed to see 2 things that made me feel safe about this play and they were senoir QB Kevin Riley who has completed 66% of his passes so far this season and thrown 7td's and junoir RB Shane Vereen who has accounted for 1792 yards and 24td's in his career at Cal while already scoring 5 td's this season so far this season. So unless Nevada is all the sudden getting close to 2td's or the schedule has changed to UNLV for tonight's game then I think it's pretty clear that the obvious and correct play is about as square as they come for friday and that taking Cal laying almost whatever on the road and ride this trend out to the promise land...POD

 

GL as always...

oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 9/17/2010 2:22:36 AM
Oh dear lord I forgot to mention that Nevada just beat out of conference opponent Colorado St. last game so I have to change those stats to 1-8su & 1-8ats.  Still pretty silly number's when this team plays someone with a pulse...
johnnyflynn PM johnnyflynn
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Posted: 9/17/2010 2:35:31 AM
On Cal as well. 
Messier-11 PM Messier-11
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Posted: 9/17/2010 2:45:41 AM
on cal also.....this will be a dog fight tho
Hank55 PM Hank55
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Posted: 9/17/2010 3:00:26 AM
oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 9/17/2010 9:32:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Messier-11:

on cal also.....this will be a dog fight tho
Hopefully it's one of those blowout games that Nevada is so used to when playing the better team. Don't want to see any rollercoaster match for tonight I want it to be over just like NC State was sea;ed up early last night if you don't mind...
Maydaymalone PM Maydaymalone
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Posted: 9/17/2010 9:40:56 AM
I dont care who wins as long as we get over 66 points.
I think Nevada will be able to more points up in this one then previous years
PGram13 PM PGram13
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Posted: 9/17/2010 9:44:18 AM
I HOPE YOUR RIGHT ODDS! Im with ya Buddy! GL this weekend! PG  
HotRoute PM HotRoute
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Posted: 9/17/2010 9:47:05 AM
gl odds...I am playing the over
D-Town PM D-Town
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Posted: 9/17/2010 10:41:55 AM
Good luck OB. 
kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
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Posted: 9/17/2010 10:52:59 AM
Fantastic breakdown here, Odds
azrhodes PM azrhodes
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Posted: 9/17/2010 10:59:49 AM
Maydaymalone PM Maydaymalone
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Posted: 9/17/2010 11:01:42 AM
any input on the OVER/UNDER?
Yanidis PM Yanidis
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Posted: 9/17/2010 11:06:53 AM
Over. But it will be close.
oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 9/17/2010 11:54:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Maydaymalone:

any input on the OVER/UNDER?
I like the over with everyone else but i'm just sticking wih the Bears play tonight..
Skanless1 PM Skanless1
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Posted: 9/17/2010 11:57:10 AM
love the play, only thing that scares me is that it seems TOO easy.. WAY too easy.
oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 9/17/2010 11:57:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Fantastic breakdown here, Odds
 Thanks bro now if I could only fix the grammer and all the run on sentences it might even be a better read...
oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 9/17/2010 11:58:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Skanless1:

love the play, only thing that scares me is that it seems TOO easy.. WAY too easy.
Sometimes they are and sometimes they are. Thus the term their is no such thing as a lock...
letsmakebets PM letsmakebets
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Posted: 9/17/2010 12:08:14 PM
 
oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 9/17/2010 12:42:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Yanidis:

Over. But it will be close.
Barnstorm PM Barnstorm
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Posted: 9/17/2010 1:04:01 PM
I felt the same way about Nevada. They run over weaker teams. But their D has always been horrible.

They might hang in there for a bit, but Cal should score easily.

GL
Travel2GetCash PM Travel2GetCash
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Posted: 9/17/2010 1:11:11 PM
Henry-Lilly PM Henry-Lilly
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Posted: 9/17/2010 2:42:50 PM
Teased Cal and Over.
oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 9/17/2010 3:21:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Henry-Lilly:

Teased Cal and Over.
I don't like teasing this game at all. It may go over and Cal may and should cover as I suspect but i'm just not digging the tease on this game. If i played both bets they would just be straight bets. BOL to you though...
RickRaise PM RickRaise
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Posted: 9/17/2010 3:57:55 PM
go Cal! gives me something else to cheer for while we do this league draft tonight odds! 
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