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Author: [College Football] Topic: !!!!! I smell another Nevada disaster !!!!!
oddsbuster send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#1
Posted: 9/17/2010 2:12:34 AM

5th play is:

California -2.5 for 7 units... The first thing I wanted to go back and see when researching this match-up was Nevada's past result's vs non-conference D-1 teams after Colin Kaepernick took over as the starter midway through the 07-08 season when Nick Graziano went down with an injury that opened the door for Colin Kaepernick. Sure enough as I suspected since Colin Kaepernick has taken over the Wolfpack are a horrible 2-8su and 2-8ats non-conference opponents. Those 2 wins came against the same team twice as they beat their instate rival UNLV a team they have handled now for 5 straight years in a row. So taking UNLV out of those out of conference games the Wolfpack are a perfect 0-8su and 0-8ats. In those 8 games the Wolfpack have allowed 39.375ppg on defense and only averaged 15.25ppg on offense getting shutout twice. The list of games are below:

Saturday 12/22/07 @ New Mexico L 0-23 L 2 (bowl game)

Saturday 09/06/08 Texas Tech L 19-35 L 10.5

Saturday 09/13/08 @ Missouri L 17-69 L 26

Tuesday 12/30/08 vs Maryland L 35-42 L -2.5 (bowl game)

Saturday 09/05/09 @ Notre Dame L 0-35 L 14.5

Saturday 09/19/09 @ Colorado State L 20-35 L -5

Friday 09/25/09 Missouri L 21-31 L 7

Thursday 12/24/09 vs Southern Methodist L 10-45 L -10.5 (bowl game)

I don't now what you guys are seeing but all of this pretty much tells me that the 108td's and all those yards that Colin Kaepernick has provided for Nevada that over 90% of them were all within the conference or against lessor opponents. Talk about not winning the big game for this team. Most of their failure pretty much rests on the shrugging shoulders of their horid defense as they could'nt stop any of these teams from scoring. When looking at Cal's team for this play I only needed to see 2 things that made me feel safe about this play and they were senoir QB Kevin Riley who has completed 66% of his passes so far this season and thrown 7td's and junoir RB Shane Vereen who has accounted for 1792 yards and 24td's in his career at Cal while already scoring 5 td's this season so far this season. So unless Nevada is all the sudden getting close to 2td's or the schedule has changed to UNLV for tonight's game then I think it's pretty clear that the obvious and correct play is about as square as they come for friday and that taking Cal laying almost whatever on the road and ride this trend out to the promise land...POD

 

GL as always...

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#2
Posted: 9/17/2010 2:22:36 AM
Oh dear lord I forgot to mention that Nevada just beat out of conference opponent Colorado St. last game so I have to change those stats to 1-8su & 1-8ats.  Still pretty silly number's when this team plays someone with a pulse...
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#3
Posted: 9/17/2010 2:35:31 AM
On Cal as well. 
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#4
Posted: 9/17/2010 2:45:41 AM
on cal also.....this will be a dog fight tho
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#5
Posted: 9/17/2010 3:00:26 AM
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#6
Posted: 9/17/2010 9:32:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Messier-11:

on cal also.....this will be a dog fight tho
Hopefully it's one of those blowout games that Nevada is so used to when playing the better team. Don't want to see any rollercoaster match for tonight I want it to be over just like NC State was sea;ed up early last night if you don't mind...
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#7
Posted: 9/17/2010 9:40:56 AM
I dont care who wins as long as we get over 66 points.
I think Nevada will be able to more points up in this one then previous years
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#8
Posted: 9/17/2010 9:44:18 AM
I HOPE YOUR RIGHT ODDS! Im with ya Buddy! GL this weekend! PG  
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#9
Posted: 9/17/2010 9:47:05 AM
gl odds...I am playing the over
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#10
Posted: 9/17/2010 10:41:55 AM
Good luck OB. 
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#11
Posted: 9/17/2010 10:52:59 AM
Fantastic breakdown here, Odds
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#12
Posted: 9/17/2010 10:59:49 AM
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#13
Posted: 9/17/2010 11:01:42 AM
any input on the OVER/UNDER?
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#14
Posted: 9/17/2010 11:06:53 AM
Over. But it will be close.
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#15
Posted: 9/17/2010 11:54:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Maydaymalone:

any input on the OVER/UNDER?
I like the over with everyone else but i'm just sticking wih the Bears play tonight..
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#16
Posted: 9/17/2010 11:57:10 AM
love the play, only thing that scares me is that it seems TOO easy.. WAY too easy.
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#17
Posted: 9/17/2010 11:57:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Fantastic breakdown here, Odds
 Thanks bro now if I could only fix the grammer and all the run on sentences it might even be a better read...
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#18
Posted: 9/17/2010 11:58:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Skanless1:

love the play, only thing that scares me is that it seems TOO easy.. WAY too easy.
Sometimes they are and sometimes they are. Thus the term their is no such thing as a lock...
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#19
Posted: 9/17/2010 12:08:14 PM
 
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#20
Posted: 9/17/2010 12:42:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Yanidis:

Over. But it will be close.
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#21
Posted: 9/17/2010 1:04:01 PM
I felt the same way about Nevada. They run over weaker teams. But their D has always been horrible.

They might hang in there for a bit, but Cal should score easily.

GL
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#22
Posted: 9/17/2010 1:11:11 PM
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#23
Posted: 9/17/2010 2:42:50 PM
Teased Cal and Over.
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#24
Posted: 9/17/2010 3:21:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Henry-Lilly:

Teased Cal and Over.
I don't like teasing this game at all. It may go over and Cal may and should cover as I suspect but i'm just not digging the tease on this game. If i played both bets they would just be straight bets. BOL to you though...
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#25
Posted: 9/17/2010 3:57:55 PM
go Cal! gives me something else to cheer for while we do this league draft tonight odds! 
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