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Author: [College Football] Topic: Starting something new this week...
HOFCity
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#1
Posted: 9/15/2010 3:03:05 PM

Each week, granted I have the time to do so, I'm going to look down the slate of games and classify what teams are overpriced and should be bet against and what teams are underpriced and should be bet on given the pointspread for the game.

Hopefully it nets us some winners and ultimately allows for some healthy, insightful conversation during the week to get our hands around certain games...

This will be the 1st edition...

UNDERPRICED

Illinois -7.5 hosting Northern Illinois

(Should be at least -14)

Feels about a touchdown off as Illinois playing better than many would have thought while NIU struggling at QB position.

Navy -4 @ La Tech

(Should be at least -8)

The parts are there for Navy, the execution hasn't been. If things flow smoothly in this one, Navy wins going away.

Auburn -6  hosting Clemson

(Should be at least -10)

The scoring Auburn should have had against Miss State will happen against Clemson. Clemson offense won't be able to match scores with the Alabama Tigers in this one.

UTEP -15.5 hosting New Mexico State

(Should be at least 20)

UTEP wins award for worst defense in the nation ;ast week, but playing against Houston will give a lot of teams that award. UTEP can move the ball and their defense should find the sledding much easier against NMSU. UTEP by 3 scores easily.

Iowa -2.5 @ Arizona

(Should be at least 6)

Iowa needs this quality road win to stay in BCS hunt and I believe they have what it takes to knock off Buckeyes.

Army -5.5 hosting North Texas

(Should be at least 9.5)

Army was rejuvenated in the 2nd half against Hawaii last week, coming back from 21 points only to lose in the last moments. Army should get it's option attack rolling against the Mean Green.

 

OVERPRICED

Florida -16.5 @ Tennessee

(Should be closer to -12.5)

Florida and Oregon are pretty similar offensively, except Oregon can execute and Florida hasn't been able to thus far. SEC conference game, give me the points with all this negativity surrounding Rainey this week.

N'Western -7 @ Rice

(Should be closer to -4.5)

Rice is a scrappy bunch and -7 looks like a gift for the Big 10 Wildcats. I like the Owls here in a possible upset.

Houston -3 @ UCLA

(Should be a PK if Keenum doesn't play)

Cougs face a team with a defensive pulse. If Keenum plays, I probably stay away but if Houston starts the backup QB, I like UCLA's offense to move the ball in this one as Houston's defense is by no means a world beater.

Connecticut -6.5 @ Temple

(Should be closer to -2)

Temple has looked far from anything the football previews were saying about them. Beating Nova on a last second FG and going OT with a lesser-talented Central Mich team. But, Temple matches up really well with the Huskies in this one.

San Diego State @ Missouri -16.5

Brady Hoke comes back to the midwest and brings an Aztec team that should stay within the number in this one.

(Should be closer to -13)

 

THE PRICE IS RIGHT (BET AT YOUR OWN PERIL)

Hawaii @ Colorado -10

Wazzou @ SMU -22

Baylor @ TCU -21.5

Notre Dame @ Michigan State -3

 

Lets see what kind of discussion we can get going with this.

 

 

 

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The8ofCups send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#2
Posted: 9/15/2010 3:12:43 PM
I think you're off on Army, Iowa, and possibly Navy.  Otherwise, some sharp analysis.  You should track results on these, and continue it weekly.
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#3
Posted: 9/15/2010 3:13:30 PM

I see some market corrections that were made by linesmakers to account for some teams that are either 0-2 or 2-0 ATS, games that involve teams people dont know much about, or teams that looked better or worse than they really are in a recent game.

Too many to rattle all them off but,

SDSU+16.5 now 14 or so falls into that catagory where I think the public hasnt come around to this team yet.

EMU +10 (now 9 or so) against CMU.  CMU covered last week, and the public hasnt seen the strides EMU has made this year.

Boise St and Ohio State both have some inflated lines based on previous performances.  If you look at the Wyoming line it opened close to the same line Wyoming had at UT, now they are at home against Boise. 

BOL

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HOFCity
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#4
Posted: 9/15/2010 3:43:40 PM

Nice discussion already...

Thanks for insight guys.

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#5
Posted: 9/15/2010 3:43:51 PM
Good analysis. None of the games above really interest me, except for maybe Navy -4.

What about Washington being "overpriced?" 

The Huskies are only catching 3 points against the #8 team in the nation. Shouldn't they be getting 6 or 7?

And any opinion on the Notre Dame vs Michigan State game? In my opinion, Michigan State is overrated and I am not a big believer in Kirk Cousins. I think ND can pull off the upset this week, and I especially like them getting 3.5. 
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HOFCity
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#6
Posted: 9/15/2010 3:46:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jersey973:

Good analysis. None of the games above really interest me, except for maybe Navy -4.

What about Washington being "overpriced?" 

The Huskies are only catching 3 points against the #8 team in the nation. Shouldn't they be getting 6 or 7?

And any opinion on the Notre Dame vs Michigan State game? In my opinion, Michigan State is overrated and I am not a big believer in Kirk Cousins. I think ND can pull off the upset this week, and I especially like them getting 3.5. 

Washington can't be overpriced because they're catching 5 from Nebraska, the Huskers are actually favored in that one Jersey973. If anything, you mean the Huskers are overpriced.

I like the Irish to bounce back this week, ND/MSU games are always classics.

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HOFCity
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#7
Posted: 9/15/2010 8:22:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jp1lsu:

I see some market corrections that were made by linesmakers to account for some teams that are either 0-2 or 2-0 ATS, games that involve teams people dont know much about, or teams that looked better or worse than they really are in a recent game.

Too many to rattle all them off but,

SDSU+16.5 now 14 or so falls into that catagory where I think the public hasnt come around to this team yet.

EMU +10 (now 9 or so) against CMU.  CMU covered last week, and the public hasnt seen the strides EMU has made this year.

Boise St and Ohio State both have some inflated lines based on previous performances.  If you look at the Wyoming line it opened close to the same line Wyoming had at UT, now they are at home against Boise. 

BOL

 

I like the EMU opinion.

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#8
Posted: 9/16/2010 9:06:44 PM
illinois...alabama...iowa 3 game parlay best 3 option? any thoughts
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#9
Posted: 9/16/2010 9:24:17 PM

Navy and UTEP are my top plays this week

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HOFCity
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#10
Posted: 9/16/2010 10:14:10 PM

Really like UTEP, BOL to you jersey.

 

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#11
Posted: 9/16/2010 10:15:58 PM

Like Iowa the best, they need to make stmt,. they are top 5 team if beat OSU could play in BCS title. Kirk Ference better coach than Tressel. Arizona will get wore down by size and technique of Iowa. Look for a close game until late in 3rd quarter. Those midwest boys are going to show they are in better shape than the desert rats.

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#12
Posted: 9/16/2010 10:17:42 PM
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