Alabama Annual Pre-Season Write-Up (2nd Attempt)

Long post so I’ll break it up by subject.

INTRODUCTION

Before I begin my annual Alabama Crimson Tide write-up, I will disclose the obvious – I am a lifelong Bama fan.  I will also disclose that I maintain some high level contacts within the organization (we’ll leave it at that).  For example, last season, the night before the South Carolina/Alabama game, I posted that Javier Arenas would be out for the game due to a rib injury.  That information was not disclosed to the public until kickoff the next day.  I say that not to boast in anyway, I say that to inform you that when I say something about Alabama football, it’s not to put myself on a pedestal; it’s to help you win money betting Bama games.

SLEEPER PICK

I doubt I can top last year’s write-up in which I predicted that Bama would beat Florida in the SECCG, and would beat Texas in the NCG.  Every year I also give you my sleeper player – a player on the roster that you’ve probably never heard, and that I believe will become a household name before the season is over.  Two years ago that player was Terrence Cody.  Last year that player was Marcel Dareus, who was not even considered a starter, and who went on to win the MVP award in the NCG (and deservedly so).  This season I feel like I may be cheating just a bit by selecting mike LBer Dont’a Hightower.  I say cheating because many may have already heard of him because this will be his third year as a starting LBer.  His season was cut short last year when he suffered a season-ending ACL tear in the Arkansas game.  He was also the best defensive player on the field in the Bama/VT game last season.  So if you don’t accept Hightower as a “sleeper,” (which I would completely understand because I wouldn’t) I will go with jack LBer Courtney Upshaw.

OVERALL TALENT

It seems that it has become fashionable to predict the annual downfall of Bama.  If you are one of those, you haven’t been listening to what I’ve been saying for 3 years now.  Two years ago, when Bama ran through their regular season schedule undefeated, they did so largely on smoke and mirrors.  They did it with a mix of some marginal talent recruited by former coach Mike Shula, and true freshman and true sophomores recruited by Saban.  They also had zero depth.  Now with the benefit of 3 full Saban recruiting classes (which ranked #1, #1 and #5 nationally), the Alabama roster is replete with both blue-chip talent and blue-chip depth at pretty much every position.  So far from being down, Bama is still very much still on the rise IMO.

This year the #1 recruiting class from 2008 will be juniors and red-shirt sophomores.  To get an idea of how sick that recruiting class was, consider that Terrence Cody was a 2^nd round NFL pick of the Ravens in the 2010 draft.  Add to that there are 4 juniors and 1 sophomore from that class that have 1^st round potential in next year’s draft.  On defense Marcel Dareus, and Don’t’a Hightower are already projected to be 1^st round picks by Mel Kiper, and safety Mark Barron also has 1^st round potential.  On offense, Mel Kiper projects both Mark Ingram and Julio Jones as first round selections as well.

DEFENSE

“But Freak” you say, “doesn’t Bama have to replace 9 starters on defense?” to which I respond in Lee Corso fashion, “not so fast my friend.”  In fact if you actually calculate it the way preseason magazines do, Bama will be replacing 10 starters because one of last year’s starters, LB Nico Johnson, is now running 2nd string.  And he is not running 2^nd string because he’s in Saban’s doghouse; he’s running with the 2s because he was flat beat out.  To put this in perspective, Nico Johnson was a 5-star LBer recruit in 2009 who was ranked the top LBer in the nation.  He is so good that as a true sophomore, he was named to this year’s Butkus watch list for the top linebacker in the nation, yet he couldn’t even crack Bama’s starting lineup this year.  Bama is so deep at the LBer position that they have 10 LBers on their roster that could probably start at any college in the country.  So of the 2 returning starters, safety Mark Barron and LBer Nico Johnson, only Barron will be in the starting lineup opening day.

So who are the 10 new guys?  I will review each of those for you position by position.

**  DE Luther Davis - is a very experienced senior who has played many snaps for the Crimson Tide over the past 3 seasons.

**  DE Marcel Dareus - need I say more?  This guy was one of the best defensive players in the nation last year even though he wasn’t considered a “starter.”  He was my 2009 “sleeper” pick, was the MVP of the national championship game, and is a lock to be a top 10 draft pick in next year’s draft.

** NT Josh Chapman - has been the nickel and dime nose tackle for Bama the past two seasons.  He backed up Terrence Cody who only played in the base defense.  In fact, because Bama plays so much nickel and dime, Chapman has actually played more snaps at nose than Cody over the past two seasons.  Chapman also filled in for Cody in 2008 when Cody went down with a knee injury (the Tennessee game in particular).  This year Chapman will play base, and Kerry Murphy will play nickel and dime because he’s the better pass rusher of the two.  Both are monsters.

** LBer Don’t’a Hightower - as I explained, this will be Hightower’s third season as a starting LBer for Bama, but because he was lost for the season with an ACL tear, he is not considered a returning starter for some reason.  As I said in my preseason write-up last season, Hightower is more physically gifted than last year’s Butkus Award winner Rolondo McClain.  The difference is that McClain was the smarter of the two.  This year Hightower assumes McClain’s role as the QB of the defense.  Expect Hightower to win the Butkus award this season and be a high 1^st round selection in next year’s draft.

**  LBer Courtney Upshaw – my “co-sleeper” selection is very experienced and a beast (as all of Bama’s backers are).   Upshaw is most famous for his fumble recovery at the end of the national championship game that sealed the win for Bama.

** LBer Jerrell Harris - would have been a starter last season but for the fact he accepted a laptop as an improper gift and was ineligible for the first half of the season.  He worked his way back into the rotation the second half of the season.  He is a monster and very experienced in Saban’s system.

** LBer Chavis Williams - a Saban recruit who is in his 4^th season in the system.  Williams is a very experienced guy who has played a ton of snaps.

(Defense Continued)

**  SS Mark Barron – an extremely athletic returning starter who played every game last season.  Will probably go pro at season’s end, and has a decent shot at being a 1st round selection.

**  FS Robert Lester – a 4* recruit from that 2008 class.  The only reason Lester is starting is because last year’s starter Robby Green was suspended by the NCAA for the year.  Having been in the system for a couple of years, Lester has a full understanding of Saban’s defense, but is inexperienced.  Last year this is a guy I never thought would see the field for Bama, but with Green’s suspension, Rod Woodson’s dismissal from the team, and stud 5* safety recruit Keenan Allen switching his commitment from Bama to Cali right before national signing day, here Lester is front and center.   I have some doubts about the guy, but I know Saban wouldn’t put him out there if he wasn’t ready.  The other options behind Barron and Lester are highly touted true freshmen Jarrick Williams and Nick Perry who are as green as the Bryant-Denny turf.

** CB Dre Kirkpatrick – a stud 5* recruit that was part of the #1 class in 2009.  He played significant snaps last season in the nickel and dime packages.

** CB Dequan Menzie – a great athlete who was the top JUCO DB in the nation last year.  He’s a very experienced corner who quickly picked up on Saban’s defense.

**  Other CBs – include 2008 5* BJ Scott who figured to be the starter, but has been a bit slow in picking up the zone concept:  2010 5* recruit DeMarcus Milliner:  highly touted CB recruit Phelon Jones who transferred from LSU at the end of the 2008 season.  He sat out last season and is eligible to play.  All of these guys will see time in the nickel and dime packages.

In sum, this is a very experienced defense for the most part, and by far Saban’s most talented.  The front 7 is insanely good.  Expect them to bring a ferocious pass rush.  That will help a secondary that is very heavy on talent but light on experience to get acclimated before the heavy lifting begins in week 4 versus Arkansas.  Overall I expect this defense to be an improvement over last year’s defense.

OFFENSE

There isn’t really much to say that most people don’t already know.  They get almost everyone back from last year – QB Greg McElroy, RBs Mark Ingram & Trent Richardson, WRs Julio Jones & Marquis Maze, and their line is largely intact.  McElroy will start this season a confident seasoned pro instead of a nervous, jittery first year starter.  His ability to read defenses and make quick decisions is light years ahead of where it was this time last season.  Expect this offense to be very, very good and win a couple of games by themselves (like Arkansas).

The one guy that I would love to make a “sleeper pick” because he is worthy is RB Eddie Lacy.  The problem is with Ingram and Richardson ahead of him, he won’t get enough touches to become a household name yet.  The guy is a beast though.  He has the potential to be every bit as good as Ingram and Richardson.  In fact I call him a Richardson clone.  In practice, I can hardly tell the two apart.  Trust me when I tell you that Lacy will be playing on Sundays.

The other guy that I would bring to your attention is backup QB AJ McCarron.  This guy is much more of a Brett Favre gunslinger type.  He has a big arm and is not afraid to use it.  He is a homerun hitter, and is a much better pure QB than McElroy.  When McElroy was struggling last year, Saban went so far as to call McCarron’s father to get his approval to burn McCarron’s redshirt.   That’s how close McElroy was to getting yanked last season.  If McElroy gets in a similar slump this season, don’t be shock to see Saban pull the trigger on McCarron.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This has the potential to be the problematic spot for the Crimson Tide this season.  Anytime you are replacing a punter, place kicker, long snapper and holder the potential for things to go wrong are endless.

Long snapper Carson Tinker was the backup LS last season so he’s not exactly new at it, but he has no game-time experience.  The holder will be backup QB AJ McCarron - again no real experience.  Bama has 2 punters that can kick the shit out of it, but are also inexperienced.   The same goes for place kicking.  Cade Foster was a 3* recruit (almost unheard of for a kicker) and can kick it into the next zip code.  But he’s been erratic on the chip shot field goals.  Expect some adventure from time-to-time in the kicking game.  The talent is there, but the experience is non-existent.

COACHING

An often overlooked aspect of the game is coaching continuity – something Bama has not had much of in the 21^st century.  This season is the exception.  Bama’s entire coaching staff returns this season except for LBer coach James Willis who became Tommy Tubberville’s defensive coordinator at Texas Tech.  It cost Bama a fortune to hang on to defensive coordinator Kirby Smart who came close to bolting for the Georgia Bulldogs - his alma mater.  Don’t under-estimate the positive impact that coaching continuity will have on Bama’s 2010 season.

SCHEDULE

I won’t go into great detail here because Bama’s schedule has been a heavily discussed topic.  Yes there are 6 SEC opponents who will have two weeks to prepare for Bama.  Yes, they will wear the bull’s-eye on their back all season, but they did last season too so that’s not really new.

I think the critical part of Bama’s schedule is weeks’ 4, 5 & 6 against Arkansas, Florida and South Carolina.  If Bama gets past the first two, they’ll face South Carolina in Columbia.  USC will have two weeks to prepare for Bama who will be in a classic letdown situation following the emotional Florida victory.  My money will probably be all over South Carolina like it was last season.  The other game I think is problematic for Bama is the LSU game in Baton Rouge.  That’s a very tough environment to leave with a win.

The Florida game will be largely inconsequential unless it causes the loser thereof to lose their divisional championship which I don’t see happening.

PREDICTION

Alabama and Florida simply have the more talent than anyone else in the SEC.  LSU and Georgia are the closest talent-wise, but their coaching handicaps will keep those teams under-achieving IMO.  Accordingly, I really don’t think anyone will pose a serious challenge in either division to prevent Alabama/Florida III in the SEC Championship game.

I know a lot of people consider Auburn to be a legitimate contender in the West, but I’m not one of them.  I think they are way too thin to make a serious run this season.  If they can put together a couple of more recruiting classes together like they did last season (#4 ranked recruiting class in the nation), then I absolutely think they will be serious contenders in the future.  I think banking on them to win the West this season is a bit premature.

I also have a little concern about defensive coordinators in the SEC catching up with Gus Malzahn’s offensive scheme this season.  I have no idea if that will happen or not, but it’s something that bears watching this season.  As I have said many times, I love Malzahn.  I think he is the best coach on that staff.  I will be curious to see how well he does after defensive coordinators have had a year to study him.

I am predicting Alabama/Florida III, and unless Florida can develop a multi-dimensional offense, and can learn to deal with Alabama’s physical style of play, I have to give Bama the edge in that game.  I believe whoever wins that game will go on to win the national championship again.

I think the most likely opponents in the NCG will be Ohio State, Oklahoma or Texas.  Who will make it between these three?  Ask me after the Red River Shootout.  Regardless of who it is, I think the edge would have to go to the SEC champ which I believe will be Bama again.

 BOL to all this season!!! 

Tressel!!!  Where the hell have you been???  Have seen you.  Love to see what you have working in week 1 bro.

I think the opponent bye weeks will be a factor.  Bama has a bye week ahead of LSU too so that one is kind of a wash, but I don't think Bama will make it through unscathed.  I think they lose one, and my prediction is probably either Florida or South Carolina, but not both.

ROLL TIDE ROLL!!! FREAK!!!! 

Was suppose to say, "I haven't seen you."

Good luck this year Jimmy....my only worry for you guys is that the entire world (except Herbie) is picking Bama vs. Florida III to occur.

that means...it ain't happening.  wouldn't be surprised to see a 2 loss team win the SEC as the schedules are so daunting.  

and USC has had top 5 recruiting classes for 10 years and still couldn't come together last year on defense.  hopefully the new secondary will be better than the one that surprised you on how well my Horns did against it :)

Keith

Great job as always. 

I totally understand what you are saying Kroch, but the question is if not Bama in the West who?  And if not Florida in the East who?  I think both teams are far ahed of the next closest team.  Aside from catastrophe striking one or both of these teams, I don't think they can help but win their respective divisions.

Then the next question is, are you really going to keep the winner of the SECCG out out the NCG?  Alabama and Florida were the best two teams last season.  If not, then I think the edge goes to the SEC team again.

What the hell do I know, but it just seems too easy to me.

No. Nothing.  I thought there may be some sort of announcement today, but nothing yet.  When word breaks, I'm sure it'll be national news.  At this point, regardless of what the NCAA does, I think Saban will suspend Dareus for the SJSU game.  My expectation is that the NCAA won't punish Dareus at all.

If Bama were to lose him for the season (which I don't think will happen), that would be a huge blow to Bama's chances to repeat.  There is no other Dareus sitting on the bench waiting his turn to play.

I think the SEC last year, really, was quite a subpar conference outside of Alabama and Florida of course.  This year, seems the playing field outside of those two will be much better and the conference as a whole will be much better.   and Miles is on the hot seat!

I'm not as sold on Florida as much as others are.  I like the o-line, but where are the receivers and TEs?  is Demps going to get 20 carries a game?  Unlikely.  even Meyer said last year that without Coop, his team was average.  Schedule with Bama and LSU back to back is tough, and UGA should be a threat in the East if the o-line doesn't fall apart again.  No more Joe Cox is probably worth 2 games by itself.  FSU if the defense gets better isn't a push over this year and that game is in Tallahassee.  Ewing theory to the max here btw.

As far as nationally, depends on how many teams run the table. 

Always enjoy your take jimmy

I agree, Marcel Darius is and will be a beast this year.  However, I think Jerrell Harris will have a break out year as a sleeper. 

Overall, Bama will be a great team again.  They may not seal their division in early November like last year, but they will be damn good.  The offense brings back 8 starters that features plenty stars.  I hear Saban is going to have McElroy throw more to present more of a balance attached.  If it was up to me, I'd say to stick to what's been working and pound the ball with the best RB duo in college football.  However, if I had to choose a question mark on offense, I would say it is with the O-Line.  Guard Mike Johnson (1st Team All American) and two year starting tackle Drew Davis will be missed. That is three 1st Team All-Americans in the past three seasons.  Which probably is a good argument that Bama reloads, not rebuilds.  I know one of the replacements DJ Flucker is one big guy...6'6"340!...I dont know much more about him though.

The defense, with only 2 returning starters, will also reload.  This is probably the most versatile LB corp at Bama as they are all interchangeable.  McLain will surely be missed, not so much for his talent, but for his high football IQ and how he was able to counter o-coordinators calls on the fly.  Hightower is talented but has much bigger shoes to fill in that regard.  However, if I had to choose a question mark on this defense it most certianly will be in the secondary, espicially considering Saban uses Nickel and Dime packages often.  These replacements are inexperienced as you explain, but they are all blue chip recruits.  In looking at their schedule, the only true passing threat is Arkansas.  Florida,South Carolina, and Auburn are also threats but no where near Arkansas.  Despite this threat they do have three games, including Penn State who IMO will get hammered, to get live game time experience before they meet which is what they lack.  Nevertheless, I'm nit picking and the strength on the line and at LB should make their jobs a lot easier.  GL to you this year Jimmy.