I talked to a good friend of mine who works at one of the Leroys sportsbooks in and around LV cant mention which one. But like what happens alot heres what he told me. The books have been taking in so much $ on CMU they have to drop the line to intise everybody to say to themselves better take Ball st cause of that line change, they do this just to get people to put some money on the other side in an attemp to get some takers on Ball st. He sees it all the time a person comes in with money in hand to bet a team. Then they see that the line moved in a possible favor of the other side and the player changes his mind and goes the other way.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I talked to a good friend of mine who works at one of the Leroys sportsbooks in and around LV cant mention which one. But like what happens alot heres what he told me. The books have been taking in so much $ on CMU they have to drop the line to intise everybody to say to themselves better take Ball st cause of that line change, they do this just to get people to put some money on the other side in an attemp to get some takers on Ball st. He sees it all the time a person comes in with money in hand to bet a team. Then they see that the line moved in a possible favor of the other side and the player changes his mind and goes the other way.
I understand that line movements can be very persuasive as well as cause much uncertainty. But instead of dropping the line, wouldn't it make more sense to move the line to 20 instead of 14? I love CMU at 17 so I'm obviously going to feel even better at 14.
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I understand that line movements can be very persuasive as well as cause much uncertainty. But instead of dropping the line, wouldn't it make more sense to move the line to 20 instead of 14? I love CMU at 17 so I'm obviously going to feel even better at 14.
actually AMD, normal bettors would still play CMU no matter what the line is, even if it moves up to 20, people still would play CMU thinking it's a steam move. In another word, I do agree with Chauner's logic because there are those big "whales" out there who do not cap game base on stats but more on line movements.
BOL with you play AMD
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actually AMD, normal bettors would still play CMU no matter what the line is, even if it moves up to 20, people still would play CMU thinking it's a steam move. In another word, I do agree with Chauner's logic because there are those big "whales" out there who do not cap game base on stats but more on line movements.
actually AMD, normal bettors would still play CMU no matter what the line is, even if it moves up to 20, people still would play CMU thinking it's a steam move. In another word, I do agree with Chauner's logic because there are those big "whales" out there who do not cap game base on stats but more on line movements.
BOL with you play AMD
Thanks bud...I understand. Bol this week
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Quote Originally Posted by richardtonsj:
actually AMD, normal bettors would still play CMU no matter what the line is, even if it moves up to 20, people still would play CMU thinking it's a steam move. In another word, I do agree with Chauner's logic because there are those big "whales" out there who do not cap game base on stats but more on line movements.
dumbest logic. Come on guys. Your saying the books will risk for the sharps to get a good line. The play is ball st its so obvious.
I don't really agree with this logic either. The casual $50 bettor might be influenced on a line but all this theory does is provide a bettor line for the $1000 sharp bet.
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Quote Originally Posted by Booshasta:
dumbest logic. Come on guys. Your saying the books will risk for the sharps to get a good line. The play is ball st its so obvious.
I don't really agree with this logic either. The casual $50 bettor might be influenced on a line but all this theory does is provide a bettor line for the $1000 sharp bet.
Me! When i saw this game on the board I predicted the line to be -15. Which I new this line was at a good bargain for ball st backers but what the linesmakers trid to do is what you guys are talking about, They would not do it now knowing everyone is backing ball st. But what they tried to do is make the line high for CMU and hope people would bite that over inflated line. But it back fired in their face as the sharps pounded the opposite side that the lines makers wanted. Now the public is smelling the odor and they are still jumping on the side with the sharps. You may see the public backing CMU at -14 and then see it climb back up to 16 to 16.5 before game time. I believe if this happens then sharp money will come back in before game time by buying it up to 17. Good luck folks but this might be game of the month material..
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Me! When i saw this game on the board I predicted the line to be -15. Which I new this line was at a good bargain for ball st backers but what the linesmakers trid to do is what you guys are talking about, They would not do it now knowing everyone is backing ball st. But what they tried to do is make the line high for CMU and hope people would bite that over inflated line. But it back fired in their face as the sharps pounded the opposite side that the lines makers wanted. Now the public is smelling the odor and they are still jumping on the side with the sharps. You may see the public backing CMU at -14 and then see it climb back up to 16 to 16.5 before game time. I believe if this happens then sharp money will come back in before game time by buying it up to 17. Good luck folks but this might be game of the month material..
I don't know if I agree with the reverse-line-mvmt theory here.... the more action they get, they drop the line to give BETTER odds to the action.....????????
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I don't know if I agree with the reverse-line-mvmt theory here.... the more action they get, they drop the line to give BETTER odds to the action.....????????
I talked to a good friend of mine who works at one of the Leroys sportsbooks in and around LV cant mention which one. But like what happens alot heres what he told me. The books have been taking in so much $ on CMU they have to drop the line to intise everybody to say to themselves better take Ball st cause of that line change, they do this just to get people to put some money on the other side in an attemp to get some takers on Ball st. He sees it all the time a person comes in with money in hand to bet a team. Then they see that the line moved in a possible favor of the other side and the player changes his mind and goes the other way.
I don't know if this is going to help here however, this is a computer model of the game.
Central Michigan (-20) by 15.80 over BALL STATE - Just
as I pointed out last week when Northern Illinois opened as a 17-point
pick and won by just 6, only 1 Ball State loss has been by enough
points to cover this spread and that came in a 54-30 loss at Auburn. This might be what the bookies are looking at. This computer model was published at the opening line, and since the line is dropping I see a lot of value in laying the points with CMU at 14.5.
Also, Ball State QB Page is out for the season. Can they move the ball against the CMU deef? I see a bunch of 3 and outs on the Ball State side of the line and lots of pressure on their sophomorej? QB Tanner Justice (34/73 for 418 2TD, 3Int in 5 games). BS is better at punting than anyone else in the MAC, and thats saying quite a bit about their offensive performance this year. Field position will kill any comeback late in the game. Dan LeFevor will figure out a way to decimate the Ball State deef against the running game then hit some deep passes to get ahead in the first half by at least 10 points. CMU offense, I believe is as good if not better than Auburn, at least more consistent. CMU is 4-2 ATS on the road. This win will make it 5-2. CMU wants the title again this year and they will play to dominate.
My line is -14.5. I'm going to buy the 1/2 (my pet peeve is 1/2 points in spreads) and play 3 units on CMU. Also, 6 point teaser for 3 units, CMU -8.5, Miami O +9.5, CMU/Ball State over 43.5. My best guess for final score is CMU 38 Ball State 17.
GLA.
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Quote Originally Posted by chauner1:
I talked to a good friend of mine who works at one of the Leroys sportsbooks in and around LV cant mention which one. But like what happens alot heres what he told me. The books have been taking in so much $ on CMU they have to drop the line to intise everybody to say to themselves better take Ball st cause of that line change, they do this just to get people to put some money on the other side in an attemp to get some takers on Ball st. He sees it all the time a person comes in with money in hand to bet a team. Then they see that the line moved in a possible favor of the other side and the player changes his mind and goes the other way.
I don't know if this is going to help here however, this is a computer model of the game.
Central Michigan (-20) by 15.80 over BALL STATE - Just
as I pointed out last week when Northern Illinois opened as a 17-point
pick and won by just 6, only 1 Ball State loss has been by enough
points to cover this spread and that came in a 54-30 loss at Auburn. This might be what the bookies are looking at. This computer model was published at the opening line, and since the line is dropping I see a lot of value in laying the points with CMU at 14.5.
Also, Ball State QB Page is out for the season. Can they move the ball against the CMU deef? I see a bunch of 3 and outs on the Ball State side of the line and lots of pressure on their sophomorej? QB Tanner Justice (34/73 for 418 2TD, 3Int in 5 games). BS is better at punting than anyone else in the MAC, and thats saying quite a bit about their offensive performance this year. Field position will kill any comeback late in the game. Dan LeFevor will figure out a way to decimate the Ball State deef against the running game then hit some deep passes to get ahead in the first half by at least 10 points. CMU offense, I believe is as good if not better than Auburn, at least more consistent. CMU is 4-2 ATS on the road. This win will make it 5-2. CMU wants the title again this year and they will play to dominate.
My line is -14.5. I'm going to buy the 1/2 (my pet peeve is 1/2 points in spreads) and play 3 units on CMU. Also, 6 point teaser for 3 units, CMU -8.5, Miami O +9.5, CMU/Ball State over 43.5. My best guess for final score is CMU 38 Ball State 17.
I talked to a good friend of mine who works at one of the Leroys sportsbooks in and around LV cant mention which one. But like what happens alot heres what he told me. The books have been taking in so much $ on CMU they have to drop the line to intise everybody to say to themselves better take Ball st cause of that line change, they do this just to get people to put some money on the other side in an attemp to get some takers on Ball st. He sees it all the time a person comes in with money in hand to bet a team. Then they see that the line moved in a possible favor of the other side and the player changes his mind and goes the other way.
no they don't do that, either you or your friend is completely full of shit, that is not true at all, if they have more money coming in Cent Mich they will not drop the line toward Ball St. to get people on Ball, completely false and to be honest, this isn't even close to being true
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Quote Originally Posted by chauner1:
I talked to a good friend of mine who works at one of the Leroys sportsbooks in and around LV cant mention which one. But like what happens alot heres what he told me. The books have been taking in so much $ on CMU they have to drop the line to intise everybody to say to themselves better take Ball st cause of that line change, they do this just to get people to put some money on the other side in an attemp to get some takers on Ball st. He sees it all the time a person comes in with money in hand to bet a team. Then they see that the line moved in a possible favor of the other side and the player changes his mind and goes the other way.
no they don't do that, either you or your friend is completely full of shit, that is not true at all, if they have more money coming in Cent Mich they will not drop the line toward Ball St. to get people on Ball, completely false and to be honest, this isn't even close to being true
I can't help but laugh at this thread, it is so bad and so false that it has truly made my day, thanks for the early laugh to get my day started off well
.
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I can't help but laugh at this thread, it is so bad and so false that it has truly made my day, thanks for the early laugh to get my day started off well
This zook guy is a moron comparing bowling green beating ball by 14 so that means that central michigan will? terrible logic and thats why you till get burned tonight GL bud
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This zook guy is a moron comparing bowling green beating ball by 14 so that means that central michigan will? terrible logic and thats why you till get burned tonight GL bud
I talked to a good friend of mine who works at one of the Leroys sportsbooks in and around LV cant mention which one. But like what happens alot heres what he told me. The books have been taking in so much $ on CMU they have to drop the line to intise everybody to say to themselves better take Ball st cause of that line change, they do this just to get people to put some money on the other side in an attemp to get some takers on Ball st. He sees it all the time a person comes in with money in hand to bet a team. Then they see that the line moved in a possible favor of the other side and the player changes his mind and goes the other way.
For this post to have any validity, ALL or most of the sportsbooks would have to be in agreement on this....Something that I doubt VERY much. Just doesn't make sense.
Covers Referee
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Quote Originally Posted by chauner1:
I talked to a good friend of mine who works at one of the Leroys sportsbooks in and around LV cant mention which one. But like what happens alot heres what he told me. The books have been taking in so much $ on CMU they have to drop the line to intise everybody to say to themselves better take Ball st cause of that line change, they do this just to get people to put some money on the other side in an attemp to get some takers on Ball st. He sees it all the time a person comes in with money in hand to bet a team. Then they see that the line moved in a possible favor of the other side and the player changes his mind and goes the other way.
For this post to have any validity, ALL or most of the sportsbooks would have to be in agreement on this....Something that I doubt VERY much. Just doesn't make sense.
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dumbest logic. Come on guys. Your saying the books will risk for the sharps to get a good line. The play is ball st its so obvious.
I don't know if this is going to help here however, this is a computer model of the game. 
out why Oddsmakers Move the Lines is a WASTE
of TIME 
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