How much stock do you put into this?

Thinking of going large on Miami -3 over North Carolina tomorrow. One big reason is because Miami's new D-Coordinator was the D Coordinator / Defensive Coach at North Carolina for the past number of years and went up against TJ Yates and company who still start for UNC this year. He should know every weakness and tendencies, not to mention most of the play calling, as UNC still has the same Off Coord. I see what Sarkesian and co. did to USC this year, as they knew the USC players / calls / tendencies. (of course it helped it was one of Barkley's first games). Lovett has kept quiet all week about now being the D.C. for Miami. Oh, it's also Randy Shannon (who I'm not a fan of as a Head Coach) going up against his former Boss in Butch Davis. But not sure if I'm putting too much stock into Lovett seeing this UNC offense every single day of practice last year and having his defense go up against them.

Oddly enough, my computer program really likes UNC in this game, so I'm probably stupid for liking the Canes so much, but I do have my reasons. Here are a few:

- Miami has never won in Chapel Hill and they are well aware of this.

- They finally decided NOT to play down to their opponent's level last week and beat Virginia 52-17. Hopefully they learned something and can do this two weeks in a row.

- UNC has had 13 injuries on the offensive side of the ball this year. They just aren't that good. And as good as the UNC defense is.....and they ARE very good!....I think Miami will put up 24 to 28 points. I've also read that Miam's best D Lineman will finally be back on the field, in Eric Moncur. He is a huge boost to the defense.

- I think this point spread has almost everything to do with North Carolina's upset of Va Tech a few weeks ago and the fact that  Miami got whooped by VT. If UNC didn't upset Va Tech on the big time Thursday night game, I think this line is probably Miami -7 or somewhere around there.

---- One thing that scares me: is that Miami players are very aware that if Georgia Tech beats Duke, they have no shot at winning the ACC Coastal Division. Unfortunately, this GT v. Duke game is a 12:00 EST game and the Miami game is a 3:30 EST start. So as much as I'd like to think the Canes' players won't let down if they hear GT beat Duke, I'm not sure that it will happen. They talk as if it won't matter, but I know these guys and this program too well. IF....and that is a HUUUUGE 'IF'.....Duke is somehow leading GT by quite a bit or beats them, I will drop larger coin on Miami, as they need to beat UNC in order to play Duke for the ACC C.G. shot next week. However, as horrible as GT's passing defense is, I just don't see Duke's defense shutting down GT when all the yellowjackets need is a win to clinch the ACC Coastal.


Miami -3 over North Carolina
* Making this a very large play if Duke somehow pulls off the miracle vs. G. Tech during the early game.

i'm UNC+3, line dropped from 3.5 and 86% on the Miami -3, good luck to you sir.

I like the play boss

No go for me, but I'm not a fan of UNC this year, find them overrated.. BOL 

Also:

As somewhat of a 'backup' play on this game, and depending on what happens with GT vs. Duke, I am really liking the OVER 43 on this game. I know both defense can play lights out, but if GT is announced as smoking Duke in the early game (and it pains me to say this), I think the let down will be with the Miami defense. They can ball and show up and play great defense when they want to, but that is not always the case, especially when it's not a 7:00 primetime ESPN game, if you  know what I mean. Also, I still don't think that Vegas has caught up to the fact that Miami has a new QB, good WRs and a new O.C. that is actually good and knows what he is doing. Miami's offense was HORRIBLE last year with Pat Nix calling plays but Whipple has changed that, and the Miami Overs have been money this year. Their offense is scoring and they are usually doing it pretty quickly. I guess I should have just waiting until after the freakin' GT v. Duke game to post this crap!!    A lot of what I do depends on that outcome, at least as far as these plays will end up being larger plays for me  or just standard. Either way, I think this game definitely goes OVER 43. It will either be a 24-21 type of game, a 30-17 type of game is Miami decides to show up again this week, or 28-20 type of game if the Canes decide to putt around like they did with Wake Forest. Honestly, I may have to switch some shiiiit up, because 43 seems waaay too low here. My system shows this total being at 49.

Miami / North Carolina OVER 43

Rokodesh - I'd be lying if I say I don't follow that stuff to some degree, but I don't pay as much attention to it as I used to. Over my years of gaining experience, I have learned that there are cases when this type of stuff happens for other reasons, other than huge money coming in on UNC (for this example). One example was The Computer Group, who basically started the strategy of dropping $30 to $50k on a team early in the Week and letting the word get out that "Oh my gosh, these guys are large on so and so...." and big money flows in on UNC or whatever team they are setting up. Then on Saturday, once the number has reached its' best value, the group turns around and drops $200k on the opposite team. Another thing that casinos have done for quite awhile now is purposely move a number off (or to) a key number when the public is very heavy on one side. This way, it obviously makes it look as if sharp action is on UNC in this case. People think exactly what you posted. "It moved down to 3, which a key number, so huge / sharp money HAS to be on UNC and I'm going there." and it's all done by the casino to even out the money on the game.

No disrespect or anything, as that was a good find. And like I said, I would be lying if I said I never pay attention to that stuff anymore, but it has tricked me too many times in the past, and it has become a tool for the casinos to use to even out the money. I will be interested on seeing how the percentages go over from here on out.



Everybody else, thanks. If you decide to follow, hopefully we can hit this bad boy. I used to never touch Miami games as they are 'my team' and all of that. Then this year I realized they have shown a ton of value in their games simply by hiring a genius Offensive Coordinator. I also decided it was stupid of me because I know more about Miami than basically any other team, and I've been right on with them in almost every game this year, with exception of Va Tech. And to be honest, with the Miami offense not getting enough respect due to the last few years and how horrible they were, and the defense getting too much respect since they only show up in big games....the Overs have been great for me on their games this year. Once again, I think 43 is just too low. I think the only way it stays under is if UNC gets their running game in an insane gear to where Miami's defense cannot stop them and they go on a number of long 70+ yard drives and grind the clock, and then Miami's offense it just totally off. I personally don't see that happening, however. Also, game time weather shows 70+ degrees and fair skies.

Somebody stop me before I get STOOOOPID and drop waaaay to big of a bomb on this Over!!

I got no problem with your pick or reasoning, it's just one game that doesn't mean much in the long run, anyways BOL tomorrow.

I can agree with that.....unless the miracle upset of Duke takes place. 

I guess I'm just thinking out loud and looking for perspective. This year has been my worst year in, well, maybe forever and I've decided it's time to be more selective and up my wagers for the rest of the year. After many years of success, I kind of got a reality check this year. I mean it started badly with having a very tight bankroll due to a few things, but that's another story. So after taking a handful of horrible beats, I have laid off for about 2 weeks and came up with a gameplan. I never knew how much taking numerous beats week after week from losing by .5 point to 2 points (including missed FGs and XPs etc) can totally take out of a person until this year. It has just been unreal. So I'm back in action and it's time to do a 4 to 5 play method for at least awhile. Anyway, who are you on tomorrow, if you don't mind me asking?

Srsly, NASA scientists could crunch #s and not find a side on this one... Unless ur a fan, why torture urself? If u r a fan, give urself a golden parachute on the outright. GL

heres a better play

FLORIDA ST +5

THIS LINE IS OFF!!!

FLORIDA ST SHOULD BE GIVING

I dont like road chalk, but I do think The U is the better team.

very good read

,never thought that UNC would beat VT, also watched Miami vs Virgina , thought Virgina outplayed Miami early , but had incredible bad luck , Miami only team to beat Georgia tech , if that team shows up , and with the coaching angle you state, i can see it might be a strong play

gl