This game reminds me very much of another game played earlier this year. Alabama was at Ole Miss and the line opened at -6. The Public was all over Bama and the "sharps" were all over Ole Miss. I remember all the touts like Brandon Lang, etc. were all over Ole Miss. The line dropped during the week to -4.5 and a lot of people were scared off but not me. Some people faded Ole Miss saying that this is the right side because this is the side Vegas is on. Some people on Covers were saying, "HAHA Bama -4.5 this is why Vegas always wins LOL!"
When I call my bookie and placed the bet I asked him how much action he had on this game. He said that everyone that bets with him took Bama. I told him this was my Game of the Year and that Snead would throw atleast 2 picks. He ended up throwing 4 and Bama backers easily covered in a 22-3 Tide victory!
Bottomline: Reverse line movement isn't always right. Vegas isn't always on the right side. The touts aren't always right and have been wrong a majority of the time this year. Bama backers were getting the better QB, better coach, and the better defense in this matchup. Sound familar?
I would argue that Oklahoma is getting the better QB, coach, and defense vs Nebraska. Landry Jones might not be a star but at 17tds/6 ints and a 62% comp I don't see how anyone can argue that Oklahoma has a clear advantage vs a frosh QB in Green and an incompetent one in Lee. Jones has played in hostile environments vs Texas and at Miami and at Kansas. Green hasn't played against anyone good yet and threw a pick 6 last week vs Baylor. Lee flat out sucks.
Oklahoma held Texas to 16pts, Miami to 21 on the road, and Kansas to 13. They have the best defensive line in America and a great LB core. They also have CBs that can cover Nebraskas WRs. I also expect Brett Venables to have some weakside blitzes dialed up to confuse Cody Green and force atleast 4 sacks, maybe a fumble or two, and two picks. I don't see Nebraska moving the ball at all on this defense. Oklahoma will plug the run and make Green beat them. If they score 17 pts I will be surprised!
Nebraska has a solid defense but it has not played an offense with playmakers like this yet (Murray, Brown, Broyles and the emerging Dujuan Miller). Look for lots of bubble screens, slants, and hitting the Rbs in the flats. Nebraska has padded their stats by playing frauds like Baylor, Fla Atl, Ark St, Lou Lafayette, and Iowa State. They played Missouri a passing team in a rain storm which definitely affected their offense. Texas Tech light them up for 31 pts in their own house and they held Va Tech to 16 and lost on a last second TD. Va Tech is a fraud of an offense after being shut down multiple times this year and two weeks in a row by ECU and UNC. I think Oklahoma can move the ball against this secondary and run to setup the pass. Suh is a beast inside but I think Murray and Brown could get going outside the tackles with some misdirection and by running out of the shotgun.
Bottomline: this is a big step up for Nebraska in competition. Oklahoma is a top 12 team without a doubt. They should have beaten Texas but they didnt take advantage of countless opportunities in the first half. This is also a rivalry game so don't expect one team to be more motivated then the other regardless of where this game is played.
I am not going to say this game is a lock or anything because in gambling anything can happen but clearly the right side to be on is Oklahoma.
Final Score: Oklahoma 24 Nebraska 10
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