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[College Football] Topic: Another BIG play tonight...MrHeadache's Play of the Day |
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MrHeadache |
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#1 Posted: 11/6/2009 11:30:32 AM Play of the Day: 13-6 (68%)
Regular Plays: 23-15-1 (61%)
Overall Record: 36-21-1 (63%)
Units: +52.00
I guess it wasn't a pretty Game of the Year win last night with Virginia Tech, but it was a win, which is all that matters in life. Hey, like I mentioned in my post yesterday, Coach Beamer just gets it done, sometimes it's not pretty, and actually most of the time it isn't, but he just finds a way to scrap and get it done. Well that happened last night and I hope it made some of you winners like it did me!
Tonight we have something very sprecial as the Broncos travel to Joe Aillet Stadium to take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. Special because there is nothing greater than playing under the lights on a Friday night...most of these players leave their respective high school's to go play Division I ball with the prospect of never again playing under the lights...there is just simply something special about it. Playing on saturday in backed stadium's is awesome, but the night game is so much better. Well here we are, backed stadium, friday night lights, and a Boise State Bronco team fighting to make a BCS bowl this year as they have an undefeated record.
In fact the Broncos have risen to the challenge the past two weeks as they have blown out a pair of teams, 54-9 at Hawaii and 45-7 last week against San Jose State. The part that stings for the Broncos is the fact that the BCS is not swayed by style points, or the lack thereof (which is why Iowa still has a fighting chance at the National Championship if one of the top 3 can find a way to mess up). The BCS also does not take into account margin of victory, which explains why some of the other teams like Cincinnati, TCU, etc are now ahead of Boise because their schedule's are tougher. Sure, style points, and margin of victory look good to the humans that vote in the USA today and Harris polls, but it means nothing where it really matters, the BCS system. All of that has not stopped this Boise State team lately though, as they have been putting it to teams the past two weeks. But hey, after all, it is college football, and anything can happen, and that is why yhe Boise State Broncos can ill-afford to have a slip up in the final five weeks of the season starting tonight against Louisiana Tech, where wins have not come easy.
Hey there is no denying that Boise has their eyes on the polls and are apparently willing to run up the score to keep pace with fellow BCS busters TCU, and Cincinnati. Boise is a threat to extend any margin these days. But if oddsmakers add any extra premium (as they did in a recent Bronco game at Tulsa) the LT Bulldogs getting 3 TD's at Ruston is good enough for me. Hey listen...the Broncos have every ATS avantage you could possible imagine, look it up for yourself, they have incredible numbers ATS in the past years and even this year. The Broncos are not only a fan favorite, but they have become a bookies nightmare, and perhaps a thorn in the side of Vegas as they continue to cover pointspreads. Boise State is 80-44 ATS over the past 10+ seasons. Well tonight is just one of those perfect spost to jump away from the money-making Broncos (who have made me some money the last 3+ years) and play against them. This game lines up perfectly for me in that respect. It is almost impossible to find trends that favor you when betting against Boise State, but tonight we have a solid one...Boise is 1-4 ATS when traveling to Ruston. Have the linesmakers added enough premium to this spread to entice even money...not even close in my opinion...in fact the line has already been beat up to 21 from the opening 19. To me this is one of the greater spots to jump into the ring with a big play as both of LT's superstar's were hurt and taken out of their last game vs Idaho. Both running back Daniel Porter and Wide Receiver/return sprecialist Phillip Livas are listed as questionable for tonight's game. I expect them to play tonight, and perhaps not 100%, which I will actually say is okay, because it helps the perception of this play tonight. Head Coach Derek Dooley's squad is looking for their 11th home win in 12 chances since losing at home to this Bronco team two years ago. This Bulldog team is something else at Ruston....and while I dont believe there is a good enough chance they can make it their 11th win tonight, I do like the Bulldogs to keep the score within the number. This Bulldog team is very emotional right now, as they have lost their last two games in heartbreaking fashion as they lost two weeks ago to Utah State as their two-point conversion was no good, and they lost last week to Idaho by 1 point as they gave up the eventual game-winning TD with 52 seconds left and then attemped a 56 yard FG that misses. Emotional losses for the Bulldogs, and I just don't think that bodes well for the Broncos to be coming into Ruston, a place they have struggled, with back-to-back blowout wins, to play an emotional Bulldog team that has dropped two games in the past two weeks. Expect the fan favorite Broncos to have a lot of support tonight as everyone thinks they are willing to blow out every team the rest of the way to increase their chances to climb up the BCS rankings....and throw on the top that the Bulldog's top two players are probably not going to be 100%, and they have lost two-straight games....I just see a burial on Boise State tonight. Again, the BCS doesn't care how you get it done, you just have to find a way to get it done, and I really believe tonight that is what the Bronco's are going to have to face...it is going to be tough in Ruston tonight! I do not expect a blowout by any means. I expect the Bulldogs to feed off their home crowd as they are 3-0 this year at home with incredible numbers. You have to remember that this team has played a tough schedule this year, as they have already been on the road 5 times. La Tech gets some well-timed home medicine tonight in Ruston! Taking the Bulldogs +21.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +21.5 (6 Units, POD)
Boise State/Louisiana Tech Over 51 (4 Units)
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ct216 |
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#2 Posted: 11/6/2009 11:49:45 AM love the play on La tech  |
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Scorsese |
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#3 Posted: 11/6/2009 11:55:25 AM Excellent write-up Mr.H, rollin with the Bulldogs tonight too. Feel alot better about that after reading this BOL |
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MrHeadache |
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#4 Posted: 11/6/2009 11:57:24 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by ct216:
love the play on La tech
Love the avatar you post with  |
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vegasthrowdown |
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#5 Posted: 11/6/2009 11:57:31 AM  |
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MrHeadache |
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#6 Posted: 11/6/2009 11:57:43 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Scorsese:
Excellent write-up Mr.H, rollin with the Bulldogs tonight too. Feel alot better about that after reading this BOL
Thanks...let's go Bulldogs  |
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JoeFan |
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#7 Posted: 11/6/2009 11:59:56 AM Yeah I agree everything here sets up for a Boise St ATS loss.
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MrHeadache |
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#8 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:03:50 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by JoeFan:
Yeah I agree everything here sets up for a Boise St ATS loss.

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FireandIce |
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#9 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:14:17 PM I think 21 is a bit much but the questionable status of Porter is a real concern. He is their main threat ( 7 TD's and main ball carrier ) You seem to think he will play but he had a concussion and with all the concern's about them and legal issues they most likely will not play him this soon. Would not pull the trigger until you know if he's in or not. GL with your play. |
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StrictlyPicks |
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#10 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:14:24 PM good luck!!! :D |
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jdnmoney |
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#11 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:20:47 PM I LOVE BOTH AND I AM ON BOTH AS WELL!!!!!!
i also parlayed them together and bet them BOTH seperate....gl man hope we cash
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JoeFan |
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#12 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:24:59 PM Headache after looking deeper into it. La Tech is not a Live Dawg tonight. Everything sets up for them to be but they just dont have got it. Their defense is too shaky ranking 99th against the run something that Boise excells at offensively and on offense the Bulldawgs are just too Vanilla. I do feel like Boise is gonna fall at some point most likely to Nevada maybe next week against Idaho. But as far as tonight this is a no go for me. Good Luck and I hope La Tech gets it done for you!! |
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MrHeadache |
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#13 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:31:22 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by JoeFan:
Headache after looking deeper into it. La Tech is not a Live Dawg tonight. Everything sets up for them to be but they just dont have got it. Their defense is too shaky ranking 99th against the run something that Boise excells at offensively and on offense the Bulldawgs are just too Vanilla. I do feel like Boise is gonna fall at some point most likely to Nevada maybe next week against Idaho. But as far as tonight this is a no go for me. Good Luck and I hope La Tech gets it done for you!!
You can't lose money if you dont bet...so thats the good news.
But hey, a lot of signs point to Boise State in this game, not just trends, but stats, and injuries....but LT is just a different cookie at home, espeically against Boise...I am going with the points...it's tough for Boise in Ruston!
Good Luck though  |
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MrHeadache |
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#14 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:31:50 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:
I LOVE BOTH AND I AM ON BOTH AS WELL!!!!!!
i also parlayed them together and bet them BOTH seperate....gl man hope we cash

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MrHeadache |
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#15 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:32:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by StrictlyPicks:
good luck!!! :D
Thanks....you as well!  |
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JoeFan |
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#16 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:53:35 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by MrHeadache:
You can't lose money if you dont bet...so thats the good news.
But hey, a lot of signs point to Boise State in this game, not just trends, but stats, and injuries....but LT is just a different cookie at home, espeically against Boise...I am going with the points...it's tough for Boise in Ruston!
Good Luck though 
I know but home field advantage only goes so far. On the field I just dont see any advantages for the Dog to be able to cover this spread. They dont even have a punter that can pin Boise St deep. The Broncos will have good field position all night. They will be able to do whatever they want on offense and if they get stopped once or twice, La Tech will be starting from deep in their own territory. Boise has a punter that can kick the ball out of the stadium. La tech is able to put up points against swiss cheese defenses like NM ST, Hawaii and Idaho all teams with below avg defenses but against avg defenses like Auburn and Navy they have struggled badly. Now although I think Boise's D is a little overrated I do think they are just way too much for La Tech's vanilla offense. The fact that this game is being played in Rustin is the only reason why anyone is backing La Tech. As you see now on the covers board most are on the Bulldawgs because most are thnking just like I thought earlier "we are outsmarting the lnesmakers by taking Tech". However when making a pick like that you need a dawg that has something on their team that can take advantage of the other team. Tonight Tech just doesnt have that. |
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Gold_Rush |
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#17 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:55:26 PM Great call on VTECH I got them at 12.5
Mr. Headache- A Real Headache for the books
GL tonight and thanks again sir~!! |
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nbafan88 |
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#18 Posted: 11/6/2009 12:58:20 PM thank you for VT last night.. it was a very interesting 4th quarter. What a rush 
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MrHeadache |
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#19 Posted: 11/6/2009 1:01:25 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by JoeFan:
I know but home field advantage only goes so far. On the field I just dont see any advantages for the Dog to be able to cover this spread. They dont even have a punter that can pin Boise St deep. The Broncos will have good field position all night. They will be able to do whatever they want on offense and if they get stopped once or twice, La Tech will be starting from deep in their own territory. Boise has a punter that can kick the ball out of the stadium. La tech is able to put up points against swiss cheese defenses like NM ST, Hawaii and Idaho all teams with below avg defenses but against avg defenses like Auburn and Navy they have struggled badly. Now although I think Boise's D is a little overrated I do think they are just way too much for La Tech's vanilla offense. The fact that this game is being played in Rustin is the only reason why anyone is backing La Tech. As you see now on the covers board most are on the Bulldawgs because most are thnking just like I thought earlier "we are outsmarting the lnesmakers by taking Tech". However when making a pick like that you need a dawg that has something on their team that can take advantage of the other team. Tonight Tech just doesnt have that.
Well good luck to you...I just dont see it all happening tonight for Boise State...I see La Tech keeping it in the number...Boise is a very square play tonight...almost as square as it gets... |
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#20 Posted: 11/6/2009 1:01:30 PM GL buddy!! Excellent write-up!!! I'm rolling with you on this one!!! Lets get the paper!!   |
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MrHeadache |
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#21 Posted: 11/6/2009 1:02:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Gold_Rush: Great call on VTECH I got them at 12.5
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GL tonight and thanks again sir~!!
Thanks... |
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MrHeadache |
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#22 Posted: 11/6/2009 1:03:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by nbafan88:
thank you for VT last night.. it was a very interesting 4th quarter. What a rush 
Anytime... |
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MrHeadache |
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#23 Posted: 11/6/2009 1:03:33 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by billyweather:
GL buddy!! Excellent write-up!!! I'm rolling with you on this one!!! Lets get the paper!! 
Go Bulldogs  |
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JoeFan |
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#24 Posted: 11/6/2009 1:06:40 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by MrHeadache:
Well good luck to you...I just dont see it all happening tonight for Boise State...I see La Tech keeping it in the number...Boise is a very square play tonight...almost as square as it gets...
Its a square play if they were playing at home not on the road. Perception is that Boise is very avg away from smurf turf. Last Espn game for the Broncos they struggled on the road against Tulsa and now Tulsa is strugglin. The betting public remembers that and wants to back La Tech based on that info and the fact that La Tech covered last week against ATS sweethearts Idaho. Boise is not a square play tonight they will be though next week against the Vandals. |
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JoeFan |
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#25 Posted: 11/6/2009 1:08:00 PM BTW I'm not trying to be a pain I just want you to see a different angle. |
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