Early Reverse line movements this week to hammer...

Here are some of the early reverse lines this week that I jumped on:

Colorado (moved 1.5 points)  CU +3

Baylor (moved 2 points)  Bay. +14

FIU (moved 1 pt.)  FIU +13

Tulsa (moved 2.5 points)  Tulsa PK ----- Also biggest play of week moving from 2.5 to a PK.

ASU (moved 1.5 points)  ASU +10

UNLV (moved 2.5 points)  UNLV -1 ---- Another large play as it has gone from dog to fav.

BOL all!!

Tulsa still has head coach Todd Graham?

A fool and his money is the thought that comes to mind...

I think that this team is better than we think.  They were embarassed last week at home and should come out this week strong and playing with a lot of fire. 

and that is why you people are called squares!

keep betting heavy favs each week cburk, that will get you nowhere fast.  This is a proven winning system that usually hits 58-60 percent on a year.  I am not just betting these games, but will play them like I have so far this year.  It has been very profitable.  BOL to you.

Baylor has had a rough season, mostly due to the lost of their quarterback.  I watched the game last week vs. Nebraska.  In the second half, Baylor being down 20 to Nebraska and having just lost 3 games in a row, should have been ready to pack it in.  Instead, they came out with pride and determination and out played Nebraska.  Their head coach, who came from Houston and was very successful, is not about to let these guys give up.  My only question in taking Baylor would be their quarterback.  I think he's the third stringer and he was a little sporadic with his play.  I think this is his first road game.  Otherwise, after watching Baylor in the second half last week, they may very well come out this week, against Missouri, and put up a real fight.  I'd take the points with Baylor. 

I agree, I don't think that he will have too tough of a time getting adjusted to the game against the Missouri defense who is absolutely atrocious.  Mizzou is also very inconsistent and this could be a look ahead game.  I think Baylor plays them very tough this week.

I'm a bit confused.

1) how do YOU define reverse line movement?

2) Which teams are you taking?

1.  Reverse line movement is when a large majority of the betting population are on say the favorite at -7.  While there are still 70 percent on them, the line drops to -6.  That would in fact trigger to me that the underdog would be the play at +6.  It is when the line moves when the majority is on them towards the dog.  It has proven to be profitable if you play them correctly.  Usually hits around 58-60 percent a year.

2.  All of those teams above are who the RLM system says to take.

Ok then we do agree.  Its when the line moves in the opposite direction of the perceived betting action.

Good enough.  I have to agree that "those" lines are very fishy, and usually does point to something being "off". 

60% seems a bit high to me, but then again I dont track them.

BOL

It came in last year at 58.7 percent, I do not use in NFL however.  Take it for what it's worth, it has been profitable this year....

GL to ya.

Quote Originally Posted by AtlFader:

That UNLV play is interesting; I am not sure I have the huevos to pull trigger on it though.. It would be pure fade of CSU....  but man is UNLV bad

Crap UNLV and Colorado St should be in DIV 3

Exactly, these 2 teams are bad, but whenever the public see a Colorado St. team against what looks to be a weaker opponent they pound them, not knowing that CSU is just as bad....

No I am with you brother ...

Might add UNLV , but I have a horrible time trusting Sanford

Quote Originally Posted by cburk:

G...No offense but I am 15-5 for the last three weeks betting road favs.  In the beginning of the year I worried about line movement and it messed with my handicapping so much that I would not play a strong lean of mine, Boise vs Fresno comes to mind, low and behold, Boise covers.  I am not saying it doesn't win, sorry if you took it that way, but you can't just look at line movement, especially when crap teams like Baylor or UNLV are involved, you need to do some handicapping.

This week I am playing all favs, Houston was a fav.  I like Oregon, Houston, UTEP, Sooners, OKla St, ND, BYU, and Houston, thoughts?

GL 

I love some of those others that you have.  I love Oregon this week, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.  Probably will end up betting OU and ND as well.  BOL this week.

Wrong

They are giving up 22 ppg. The most they have given up is 41 to Texas. Gabbert has been injured since the 1st h of the Nebraska game. He is finally healthier and it showed 1st h vs Colorado. Baylor on the road is in trouble. Mizzou defense is very underrated if anything. The 41 vs Texas was mainly due to offensive lack of production......

Not only texas, but oklahoma state as well.  They gave up 33 points, most coming in the 2nd half too.  Only threat on that defense is Witherspoon.  This team is inconsistent, we will see though.

Also tracking:

Indiana

Rice

UCONN

if any of these move .5 points towards these teams it will be a play.

GL all.