NCAA Foots Week 4

Will have some plays this week.

 

0-0, +0.00

 

Here's my conference breakdowns:

 

#3 Wake Forest / #6 Boston College
#5 Illinois / #1 Ohio State
#8 Minnesota / #9 Northwestern
#11 Indiana / #6 Michigan
#1 Buffalo / #3 Temple
#3 Michigan State/ #7 Wisconsin
#4 CFU / #1 ECU
#2 LSU / #6 Mississippi State
#5 Marshall / #3 Memphis
#8 San Diego State / #4 Air Force
#6 UNLV / #9 Wyoming
#5 Arkansas / #3 Alabama
#1 Florida / #5 Kentucky
#3 California / #2 Oregon
#3 North Carolina / #2 Georgia Tech
#5 Colorado State / #2 BYU
#9 Washington / #7 Stanford
#5 Miami OH / #7 Kent State
#4 Miami FL / #1 Virginia Tech
#4 Iowa / #2 Penn State
#10 Washington State / #1 USC
#8 Arizona / #4 Oregon State
#5 UL Monroe / #3 Florida Atlantic
#1 Troy / #2 Arkansas State
#4 MTSTU / #8 North Texas

 

Initial Thoughts Week 4:

 

Will be interesting to see the back and forth on Thursday night between Ole Miss and South Carolina. That Georgia/Arkansas game was a fun game to watch, think this game has a little bit more defense involved. Missouri heads out to Nevada. Not sure how Nevada can keep this one close. Wake's a short favorite at home for a few games, and now a short fave on the road. If Illinois can't pass on Ohio State, it's gonna be a long game. OSU should be able to throw all over Illinois, who just lost Wilson for the season, the only defensive player worth anything. Is Minnesota ever going to play a game that isn't close? Just not much value on them. They're like an NFL team who has good defense and just looks to keep the game close and not make mistakes. Northwestern's kinda playing the same way. Indiana, while being impressive takes a step up in competition. Probably 100% sure that I'll be on Buffalo, just need to check a few things and hope a +3 opens somewhere. Michigan State is no doubt better than Wisconsin, just not enough value sticking with Notre Dame last week. Clemson proved it can play in the 11am slot, but offense was nothing special. Had about 4 delays which they fought thru as well. I'm thinking Bowling Green is able to hang with Boise, travelling east, time change, early start. Cincinnati has been really, really impressive thus far. Have to wonder how much Fresno has left in the tank after playing big game at Wisconsin, and losing ur super bowl by getting clobbered last week. There will be spots to go against Central Michigan later in the year, just have to hope they keep drilling these lower-end MAC teams for a bigger # later. Gonna take a look at Memphis, haven't been impressed with Marshall at all this year. UAB/A&M should put up a cazillion points. Same for Southern Miss/Kansas. Air Force has looked really good. Not sure the frame of mind SDST can go from losing at Idaho to then going on the road to face that running attack. Arkansas showed me a lot of the hype everyone was expecting the other night with the meeting against Georgia. A +16 might be enough to hang with Alabama. This isn't as good of Alabama team as last year. Florida game is immediately scratched out each and every week. Had Oregon a better team than Cal going into the year, but not the case right now probably. Still have to take a look at the home dog though catching more than a TD. The Georgia Tech team you saw the other night manhandled by Miami FL was simply b/c of speed. Miami has more team speed than anyone in the country, and surely have more than Carolina. Tech would be a -6 to -7 fave here if not for the national tv audience last week. Should be an up year for NC State, and get them in a PK role against Pitt. Washington in an obvious letdown spot at Stanford. Going to try and find a reason to take Miami OH at Kent State b/c I think Miami's the better squad. They've faced three teams, all better than what Kent has played. Sure, they haven't scored much but they have the experience to put some points up and compete against the bottom feeder's of the MAC. Probably be on Miami OH too, hoping for a better #. Anytime Virginia Tech is dogged I will take a look. Penn State hasn't been all that impressive to be a 10 point favorite, but one would wonder how much they held back. I would guess a lot w/ all the backdooring that occured. Texas Tech/Houston points galore. New Mexico favored by 10, yowzers. Arizona doing alot of travelling and have to take a look at Oregon State dogged at home. Can Rusty Smith cover a -4.5. He's playing better than he was last year at this time. Troy/Arkansas State should be a game that decides the Sun Belt. Will be back with plays.

 

GL

I'm already on ULM nropp.  FAU has been sputtering on offense, and they haven't been able to run the ball effectively.  Rusty is good and dangerous, but ULM has a solid secondary.  FAU has been giving up over 8 ypc on the ground in their first 2 games!  The other reason I took the Warhawks is this series has been decided by more than 5 just once in the last 5 meetings.

 

I'm leaning Virginia Tech, Oregon St, and Air Force.  Already took Stanford as well.  BOL this week.

Continuation......

 

Going to hold off on Buffalo for now. I'd rather take a +3.5 and be more confident. They should be able to win the game but the value just isn't there. I don't want to go at a team with less than a FG that has big-time revenge and a team considered to be at the top of the conference at home, nonetheless. Buffalo shouldn't have beat Temple last year (scored on Hail Mary - you probably saw it all year on ESPN's game changing moments). Just not enough value, but if it hits a +3.5 at anytime, i might re-consider.

There is somewhat good news in Miami OH-ville, and that's Raudabaugh being sent to the bench after a poor few games. Redshirt Freshman Dysert gets teh call after coming in the game at Western Michigan and having two touchdown drives. This should be the sort of kick that the offense needs going into another conference game. Kent State is without Jarvis, and looks like they'll throw another freshman in at QB b/c Morgan won't be ready. The key in this game is that while Miami OH played a tougher schedule, they also have already competed in a MAC game on the road so they know what the competition is going to be like. Kent can't run the ball, can't score in the redzone, and turnovers are a problem. I had this team as the bottom ranked team in the MAC in this division coming in, and they've gotten worse. Miami comes in with a bit of confidence, new QB, and already having tasted MAC play. Think I like my chances.

 

 

Also going to roll with:

 

 

The rest narrowed down to, might try to pick one more out of these:

 

Indiana/Michigan Over
Michigan State/Wisconsin Under
TCU/Clemson Over
Bowling Green Points and ML
Marshall/Memphis Over
Arkansas Points
FAU/Monroe Over
Troy Points and ML (only at +3)

 

Just Miami OH and Oregon State for now.

 

GL

gl this week

GL this week!!!  Like both Org St and Mia(O)

Great read. Keep it coming and GL

Nropp, Great stuff, Whats your thoughts on Toledo/Florida International ? 

 

Best of Luck

always great to see your picks

As always good stuff Neil. Could you please add me to your friends list. Your hard to find sometimes. Enjoy your weekend.

GL this week nropp! Glad to see you back posting!

 

Miami-Ohio +7

This isn't as good of Alabama team as last year.

 

[/Quote]

 

 Really?  Great thoughts as usual, but I can assure you that not only is Bama better this year, they are MUCH better, particularly on offense.  By season's end, Bama will be ranked nationally in the top 10 on offense.  They have ridiculous talent all over the field.  I really don't see anyone stopping them.  Their defense is slightly improved.

 

 

 

BOL today. Like Miami and Ga Tech