VT vs. BAMA (Extensive Write-up)

My write-up will focus primarily on Alabama because that is the team I know best.  Many of you already know that I’m a lifelong Alabama fan and season ticket holder.  I’m also very well connected when it comes to the Alabama football program.  The purpose of this write-up, however, is not to convert you to being an Alabama fan, it is intended to be informative in order to help us all wager wisely and make some damn money!!!

Also understand that I’ve lived most of my life in Virginia, and so I’m also a huge Hokies fan.  Many of the people I went to high school with graduated from VT including my sister and brother-in-law, and I have personally spent a lot of time on that campus in the past. So, I follow the Hokies pretty closely, and feel I have a pretty good handle on that team.

Last year I did a similar write-up for the Bama/Clemson game wherein I not only predicted Bama would win straight-up in convincing fashion, but that Bama would physically dominate Clemson. I firmly believe this year’s write-up will be equally accurate.

Talent Level

Despite having only mediocre talent last season, much to everyone’s surprise, Bama finished the season with an unblemished 12 & 0 regular season mark.  This year, on the strength of back-to-back national recruiting championships, Saban has transformed Bama’s roster from one of mediocre talent to one that has an elite level of talent.  There are only a handful of teams I would say possess elite talent, and they are the teams that consistently rank in the top 10 and top 5 of recruiting year in and year out.  Some examples would be Florida, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Georgia and Ohio State.  What I mean by elite talent is that when a player graduates or is injured, the team has a 4 or 5 star blue-chipper waiting in the wings to take his place.  That is pretty much where is Bama is now from a personnel standpoint.  I say this to make the point that the Bama team that takes the field against VT will be a VASTLY improved team from the one that dominated Clemson in last season’s opener.

Because of the aforementioned talent level, Bama’s opener against VT, as I see it, is pretty much a talent mismatch.  Not only is Bama better on both sides of the ball, they are pretty much better at every single position on both sides of the ball. In short, there’s really not a single VT player who could crack Bama’s starting lineup IMHO.  An argument could be made for DE Jason Worilds or LG Sergio Render , but I don’t think either would make it. Worilds is a ferocious pass rusher, but he’s way too small to play DE in Saban’s 3-4, which means he would be a LB. Render is probably better than freshman Barrett Jones simply because of his experience, but he certainly isn’t physically more talented. And lest you think I’m being a total homer here, I would probably be saying the same thing if VT were playing one of the other teams I mentioned above.  The bottom line here is that VT recruits at an ACC level, not on an elite level. A great recruiting class for VT is cracking the top 25. A disappointing recruiting year for Bama under Saban is not finishing in the top 5. There is a huge difference.

Now as we all know, raw talent is not the alpha and the omega of determining who will win a particular game. As we saw from the Appalachian State/Michigan game a couple of years ago, almost any team is capable of beating another. But talent is a very good indicator, and so is coaching. Coaching staffs must develop the talent they have, and both Saban and Beamer do a tremendous job of that. That’s why they are at the top of their professions.

VT’s Offense versus Bama’s Defense

The biggest mismatch of the game is VT’s offense vs. Bama’s punishing defense. I will not go into great detail here, because it would make this write-up too long. Just trust me when I tell you that Saban’s defense is ridiculously talented, and ridiculously nasty. There are probably as many as 5 NFL first-round draft picks amongst the starters. And as good as Bama’s defense was last year, their Achilles heel was the lack of a pass rush, and that really cost them in SEC Championship game last year against the Gators. This year Saban will add a ferocious pass rush to a defense that pretty much no one could run against last year. Much of that pass rush will come from a guy almost nobody has heard of . . . yet – Marcel Darius. The guy is virtually unblockable.

VT on the other hand never really has an offense that will scare anyone. They rank near the bottom of the ACC in almost every offensive catagory on an annual basis, and they may improve on that somewhat this year, but for the most part, expect the same kind of ball control attack that we’ve come to expect from Beamer. With injuries to their top 2 tailbacks, it looks as if the talented and highly-touted true freshman David Wilson will have the thankless job of running into Saban’s NFL-caliber defense. With his inability to be a threat in the vertical passing game (particularly the long ball), QB Tyrod Taylor has thus far only proven to be a one-dimensional threat, and that really plays into the Bama’s hands.

*** Continued ***

*** Continued ***

The bottom line here is that VT’s offense has no big play ability, struggles to pass and pass protect, and struggles to score TDs in the red zone. Typically VT runs the ball well, but that simply isn’t going to happen in this game against this defense. I would personally be shocked if VT can find a single offensive play that will create a mismatch against Bama’s defense. I don’t see VT running the ball effectively. I don’t see them passing the ball effectively. In fact, I just don’t see them scoring. I see this offense versus defense matchup being very similar to last year’s Auburn/Bama game in which Bama’s defense pitched a shutout. VT and Auburn’s offenses are very similar - a dual threat QB, good RBs, good OL, and no real outside or vertical threats in the passing game. Thus, I believe we will see a similar result in this game.

Bama’s Offense versus VT’s Defense

This is where the rubber will meet the road in this game. Bud Foster’s defenses are legendary. Tech had a top 10 defense last year, and with most of their defense back, there is no reason to expect anything less this year. Moreover, most of the questions surrounding this Bama team are on the offensive side of the ball.

I think VT will expect a conservative run-heavy attack from Bama based on what they did last year. And I’m quite sure Foster will counter by using his 4-4 box scheme, and may even drop down Kam Chancellor for a 9-man box at times. Foster has used this for years to not only stuff the run, but to pressure the QB. VT’s strategy will be quite simple; shut down the run and put pressure on Bama’s revamped offensive line and college QB neophyte Greg McElroy. I note that this has been a tried and true formula for beating Bama with both Brodie Croyle and John Parker Wilson under center.  That is essentially what Utah did in the Sugar Bowl last year, and it was very effective primarily because they jumped out to a huge early lead.

As I stated earlier, where Bama has an advantage is that they simply have better athletes than VT. The only player whose athletic ability really sticks out to me on the VT side is DE Jason Worilde. He is small, but he can be very disruptive. Other than that, what you see from VT are good garden variety college defenders who collectively will play great team defense.

I know many of you are reading your pre-season magazines and are saying “but Freak, Bama lost their starting QB, starting RB and 3 starting offensive linemen.”  I realize that of course.  But despite having done so, I’m telling you that this will be a better offense than what you saw a year ago, and it may be significantly better. One reason will simply be because this is the offense’s second year under the tuteledge of OC Jim McElwain. Therefore the offense will be far more diverse this year, and will make much better use of Bama’s incredible offensive assets.  And make no mistake about it; this offense is absolutely loaded with talent at the skill positions!!!

Most people don’t really know much about Bama’s starting QB Greg McElroy (Gmac), but he is an outstanding QB who will surprise a lot of people this season.  He is not like one of these freshmen that gets thrown into a game like we saw at Auburn and LSU last year.  McElroy has been holding the clipboard for 3 years and is as ready as anyone can be to take the helm of the Bama offense, and he has been very impressive thus far.

McElroy starred for national high school powerhouse Southlake Carroll High School in Texas, but only played his senior season because he sat behind Chase McDaniel (now with the Washington Redskins).  But McElroy made the most of his playing time by throwing for 4,687 yards and 56 TDs (a Texas state record) his senior year.  He led his team to the Texas Class 5A state title and was named offense player of the year in Texas.  In his limited college career thus far, he is 16 – 20 for 196 yards with 2 TDs and 1 int.

Gmac has already opened a lot of eyes when he participated in the Manning Passing Academy camp last month.  He stunned many observers by outperforming the likes of Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy in many of the passing drills. See linky poo.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/217498-alabama-has-a-big-surprise-for-opponents-greg-mcelroy

I promise you that Gmac is a HUGE upgrade for Bama at the QB position. It’s funny when the Bama players, or even Saban for that matter are asked about Gmac, they all just smile real big and say he’s going to surprise some people. That appears to be the company line, but it also seems pretty obvious that the whole team is trying to restrain themselves so as not to let their secret weapon out of the bag. I think Kirk Herbstreit let the secret out a bit on the college preview show. He basically said the Gmac would be one of the biggest stories in college football this year, and I agree wholeheartedly. The real question, however, is how productive will he be in his first start against Bud Foster’s defense?

*** Continued ***

Gmac doesn’t have an over-powering arm, but he is a very accurate passer, a good runner, and very smart. The biggest difference between him and last year’s QB John Parker Wilson (JPW) is that he is very adept at going through his progressions, something JPW was never able to master in his college career. More times than not JPW would stare down his primary receiver, and if he wasn’t open, the play was a bust. Gmac does a much better job of seeing the whole field, and spreading the ball around to different receivers, much the same way Tom Brady does.

Contrary to what I think most people expect, I don’t think Bama will come out with a conservative, run-heavy offense against VT. As I alluded to above, Saban is supremely confident (and so is the rest of the team) in what Gmac can do. I think Bama will come out very aggressive on offense, and may even be slightly pass-heavy. And don’t be totally shocked if you see some no-huddle as well.

And despite the preseason concerns about Bama’s OL, I can tell you that this line is replete with talent, and will be an outstanding group again this year. And while perhaps they may not be quite as dominating as last year’s group was, that’s not really necessary for this group to be successful. This line can and will pass and run block effectively, and they are extremely deep.

Bama is just insanely talented and deep at the all skill positions led by I think the best receiver in college football – Julio Jones – and RB Mark Ingram, both of whom will be future NFL first round draft picks. There is also internet talk (I haven’t personally witnessed it at any of the practices or scrimmages) that Trent Richardson (the 5-star #2 RB prospect in the nation and a Bo Jackson clone) is working out of the Wildcat formation.  So that may be something to watch out for as well. I will also add that Alabama’s offense is sick of having to go against probably the best defense in college football (with the possible exception of Florida) day in and day out, and they are looking forward to the vacation of facing a different defense. I guess we shall see.

To be fair, in speaking to my friends in Virginia who follow the Hokie program closely, they are very confident about the game.  One told me that that the word was that all the VT coaches were going around with sly little grins of confidence as they prepare for the game.

I think VT’s defense will play well and put up a tremendous effort against Alabama, but ultimately the superior athletes of Bama, and the lack of production from their offense , will simply be too much for them to withstand. And as I concluded in my Clemson write-up last year, when the final seconds tick off the 4^th quarter clock, there will be absolutely no doubt who the better team is, and it won’t be VT. My final score prediction is Bama 27 VT 3.  So obviously I really like UNDER 38, and would not hesitate to pull the trigger on Bama at -7 either, although I would probably buy it down to -6.5 to be safe. But there is simply no way I can justify backing a team that I know has almost no chance of scoring in this game, and that is exactly the situation VT will find itself in this Saturday.

 BOL to all!!!

FREAK OUT!!!