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after having some time to review, here are my thoughts on estimated opening week 1 numbers, first week always the toughest to project lines, looking forward to some LVSC numbers in a couple weeks

 

Oregon @ Boise St (-5)
Utah St @ Utah (-30)
South Carolina @ NC State (-4)
North Texas @ Ball St (-22)
Troy (-3) @ Bowling Green
Tulsa (-20) @ Tulane

San Jose St @ USC (-30)
BYU vs Oklahoma (-21) @ Arlington, TX
UL Monroe @ Texas (-39)
Navy @ Ohio St (-19)
Georgia @ Oklahoma State (-3)
Va Tech vs. Alabama (-3) @ Atlanta, GA

Akron @ Penn St (-29)
LSU (-18) @ Washington
Missouri vs. Illinois (-7) @ St. Louis, MO
Maryland @ Cal (-13)
Cincinnati @ Rutgers (-3)
Middle Tenn @ Clemson (-19)

Baylor @ Wake Forest (-9)
Florida Atl @ Nebraska (-23)

Northern Ill @ Wisconsin (-16)
La Tech @ Auburn (-15)
W Kentucky @ Tennessee (-25)
Connecticut (-10) @ Ohio
Mississippi (-17) @ Memphis
Central Mich @ Arizona (-17)
Kentucky (-15) vs. Miami OH @ Cincinnati, OH
W Mich @ Michigan (-7)
Nevada @ Notre Dame (-10)

San Diego St @ UCLA (-17)
New Mexico @ Tex A&M (-10)

Toledo @ Purdue (-12)
Colorado St @ Colorado (-13)
Rice (-3) @ UAB
Minnesota (-5) @ Syracuse
Stanford (-15) @ Wash St
Buffalo @ UTEP (PK)

Idaho @ New Mex St (-10)
Army @ E Michigan (-2)
 

 

The Cal number is low.  Last year, they were -14 at Maryland.  Now they get a revenge game at home, against a team picked by many to finish 5th or 6th (last) in the ACC Atlantic Division.  With Cal ranked as high as 11 Nationally, and given a solid chance to unseat USC and win the Pac 10 Champinship, who would take Maryland and 13 points?  I think the line is closer to 17.  Remember, you have to make a line that will get some action on both sides, and I sure can't see anyone taking Maryland and only getting 13 points.

 

Don't be suprised tosee the Alabama-Va Tech game a pick,or close to it.  There are so many people who would take either team even, that it may not be necessary to come up with a big number like 3.  I would be suprised to see the number exceed 2.  Maybe 2.5, tops.

 

I think the number on Notre Dame is low.  Remember, we are talking Notre Dame here, and while the number you hae may be acurate as far as skills go, you have to take into consideration that the rabid Irish fans will add 3-4 points onto the line.  I think it is closer to 14.

 

Good job.  Thanks for the post.

the line on that tenn game is huge man, i know its only wku,  hey nos, u or anyone else think they can cover that? why? tenn's QB is suspect, what if they just keep shooting themselves in the foot.

 

 

looks like Okla St around a FG might split the action pretty well

 

double - looks like we're pretty close on most of those numbers so could be a good sign, cannot disagree with many of your leans, if Buffalo can get some QB play they should have another good year (solid 29-19 ATS over past few years)

 

QBoption - might be tough to lay too many with Vols (8 TD passes last year and combined 2 TDs against NIU and Wyoming) with no guaranteed improved QB play, on the other hand WKU won't break much more than 10 so probably will take a look Aug camp to see if Vols offense looks capable of getting 35+

 

bigdaddy - probably right on Cal being higher, ND a couple pts higher wouldn't surprise either with all the offseason hype

 

cosmo - maybe WF slips to TD or less, given they were only -4 over Vandy close of last year and Baylor steady improvement (and Wake losing a couple key players)

 

Whats your FSU/Miami prediction?

what book do you guys recomend for football.  I have multiple accounts but just really want to narrow it down to like to.  any thoughts about bookmaker?

 

simmy2637 - missed that Monday night game

 

MiaFL @ Florida St (-6)

 

FSU probably 2-3 pts better power rating plus home field, was +2 at Miami last year, 'under' used to be easy money in the series (5-0 from 02-06) until last two years 29-37 and 41-39 with neither defense as dominant as used to be

Here are my four plays...

Top Play

UL Monroe @ Texas (-39) - Kickoff Spread -41

Pick - Texas

I am telling you people, Texas will blow out ULM at home by 50+... Look at the MOV for the 1st home game for the last ten years.  Texas is 9-1 ATS (exception - Ark St. 2007)  Our PS All American DE Sergio Kindle crashed his car into a building last week, left the season, then reported it the next day.  He has had off field troubles before.  The Longhorn Nation is betting he will miss the ULM game.  But it will not matter...

 

Maryland @ Cal (-13) - Kickoff Spread - 15

Pick - CAL

Cal has disapointed me in the past.  However, this is at home, J. Best is one of the best backs in the country, with Syd' Quan in the secondary, competent WR's and a good D line along with Maryland's relative inexperience, Cal should win big.  In addition, Riley has a giant chip on his shoulders to prove his naysayers wrong.  I think he, Tedford and Cal will come out swinging and get up by 21 by half time...Again, this is my 2nd ranked game, but I will have to watch both CAL and Maryland during August practice before I make my final decision.   Maryland has its starting RB, starting QB and 2nd and 3rd WR's back, so they are solid with skill position players.   The revenge factor scares me a bit for Cal.  How much does revenge factor into "execution" on the field.  Maryland was a terrible away team last year (0-4 ATS) while Cal was 7-0 ATS at home last year.  Since this is the first game, do you think the linesmakers will factor this into the spread.  It seems to me that the ATS performance permiumfor a specific scenario would have less weight current v. last year then it would if it were factored later in the season.  You guys can see that I am high on Cal, but I still need to do more homework...I will appreciate your thoughts...

 

Pick - Tenn

I agree with other posters.  Tenn will run the ball first, give Crompton some confidence, and have the Vol nation in a frenzy by half time.  Tenn really suffered last year with a home loss to Wyoming and others.  In my opinion, "the spread" = expections, especally in this game for this particular program.  Any "thought" of Tenn not exceeding expectations will be a bad start for someone like LK and his moxie.  He will want to walk the talk... 

Tenn had talent last year, and in my opinion has a very talented team.  They will send a message to UCLA and the rest of the SEC and hold nothing back.  There is a new enthusiasm for the Vol program.  Enthusiasm is contagious... Even though this is my third ranked game, I think the Vols will have this spread covered by half time... 

 

Stanford (-15) @ Wash St - Kickoff Spread - 16.5

Pick - Stanford

How bad is Wash St?   I have read on their Scout.com site that they have a new focus, are in the 2nd year of Wulff's program, and some of their key players have added muscle.  yada yada yada.   Stanford won't win this game 59-0 like last year, but I believe they can cover a spread up to 20.  In addition, I think Andrew Luck is going to rip apart WSU's secondary.  Again, I know WSU will be significantly improved this year, but will they improve "that" much???