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UAB @ HOU -18

Play: UAB +18

Those who read my blogs know that I expected UAB to perform well against the spread this season. So far they are 3-2-1 ATS and that's very solid when a small school like UAB travels to Tennessee, S.Carolina and hosts one of the best mid major teams Tulsa. That's some kind of a schedule, and to come out of it with a 3-2-1 ATS record is quite impressive. What else to like about this UAB team. I like their running game (#4 C-USA rushing offense vs #12 C-USA rushing defense in Houston), their red zone efficiency (#3 C-USA vs #7 C-USA), their turnover margin (not great but stil very solid against the kind of opposition they've faced), their number of sacks and their average time of possession. They've already seen two of the top offenses in the nation (Tulsa and Memphis) so they are not gonna be surprised with what Houston can do offensively. They've already seen two top defenses (Tennessee and S.Carolina) and Houston is no where close to these defenses. They've already travelled to two SEC places and let's face it, a game in Houston can not really scare you if you've already played in S.Carolina and in Tennessee. As for Houston, they've struggled against the spread this season (1-3 ATS), but that struggle started last year as they closed their 2007/2008 campaign with a 0-5 ATS record in final 5 lined games. This season they've played against a ECU team that was overrated and down emotionally after their game vs NCST, Colorado State that lost big to Colorado and barely edged Sacramento State (?) at home prior to their game vs Houston, Southern (Div.I-AA school) and Air Force a team that was able to beat a very bad Wyoming team, Southern Utah and Houston, while losing vs Navy and vs Utah. Finally, they've also played a B12 school (Oklahoma State) but they lost by 19, failing to cover the spread. I'm not sure that a team with a 2-3 SU and 1-3 ATS record should be favored by this many points after such a soft schedule. Case Keenum (Houston QB) has some amazing stats so far this season but I believe that UAB will be able to score enough against a defense that allows 28 ppg overall and 35 ppg against Div.-I schools.

I have Houston ranked 80 places better and these teams are rarely favored by less than 20. Actually, home teams ranked 70+ better and favored by less than 20 are 0-7 ATS so far this season. This list includes Bowling Green last week (lost outright), Tulane vs SMU, Michigan vs Miami of Ohio, Texas A&M vs Army, Arkansas vs LAMO, Toledo vs FIU (lost outright) Michigan State vs FAU.

2-3 teams vs teams with 4/5 losses, not revenging a 7+ pts loss, with the line lower than +6.5 and previous line higher than +8 are 0-21 ATS. There are two other teams that fit into this system this week, other than Houston (Oregon State and NIU) but I'm not so sure that I will have any play in these games.

Houston was the part of this system last year after losing a close one at Alabama, when they were favored by 21 against Rice only to win by 8 (56:48).