Messages

Forum Index : Covers MLB Betting : Messages
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Tuesday's MLB Thoughts (04.22.08)
baarrn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
baarrn
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 4440
Location:
#1
Posted: 4/22/2008 12:48:27 AM
MLB (39-27-2)  +16.48 units
Yesterday (1-0)  +1.05 units
 
Sides (27-19-2)  +12.46 units
Totals (12-8)  +4.02 units
__________________________________________________________________________
*Leans are in italics and underlined.  Plays are listed in Orange and are to win 1 unit on favs and to risk 1 unit on dogs.  
 
I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind.  Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) you are likely to see a positive return.
__________________________________________________________________________
 
I just had one for Monday and the Cardinals ended up pulling it out.  A game that certainly could have gone either way.  Here are a couple I'm looking at for Tuesday:
 
St. Louis @ Milwaukee
Hard to find much to like about Lohse as he has had xFIP's over 4.66 in each of the L4 years ('08 has started a bit better at 4.24 as he's got his BB rate down to 2.0 -- it has averaged closer to 3.0 over his career).  Parra has a 4.01 xFIP this year (8.8 K/G but 5.0 BB/G as well).  St. Louis has been ok vs. LH's  this year ('07 - .750, '08 - .763) while the Brewers have struggled vs. RH's this year ('07 - .755, '08 - .640). 
 
Florida @ Pittsburgh
Maholm has had a high GB% (53) the L2 years and he reigned in his control last year ('06 - 4.0, '07 - 2.5) which helped lower his xFIP from 4.70 in '06 to 4.35 in '07.  He's been even better this year in 3 starts as he's increased his K rate by 1.5 which has further lowered his xFIP to 3.99.  Nolasco didn't show much in '06 (4.83 xFIP).  His stats weren't bad but aside from a decent control rate (2.6) he was pretty mediocre (6.3 K rate, 38.8% GB).  The Marlins have really struggled vs. LH's this year ('07 - .811 OPS, '08 - .588) while the Pirates aren't much better vs. RH's ('07 - .720, '08 - .672).
 
I'm digging into a couple more and will update when I've got them.  BOL Tuesday all. 
quote
weezy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
weezy
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5251
Location: California
#2
Posted: 4/22/2008 12:54:51 AM
Looks like we got a little lucky on the Cards game. I will take some luck anytime it's given.  I would tread lightly when it comes to betting against Lohse right now. I know he has struggled in the past, but he has been lights out so far this year. I would give you his numbers, but I'm sure you already have them.
 
I somewhat like the Pirates lean right now, but I'm not so sure that Florida is as bad against Lefties as the numbers show right now. Also not interested if I have to lay anything over -110 in that game.
 
Good luck tomorrow and I will pop into your thread in the am with my thoughts. As always good stuff and nice analysis on the games. Keep up the good work and hopefully after this week I will be up as well.
 
quote
baarrn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
baarrn
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 4440
Location:
#3
Posted: 4/22/2008 1:49:10 AM
Weezy - First, I appreciate the well thought on comments on each of the above games. 
 
Although Lohse has done a great job of not allowing runs I don't think there is anyone he continues at his current rate.  At the same time, I'm not sold on Parra, so perhaps I'll pass.  I'll sleep on it and check back tomorrow.
 
As for the Pirates, I agree the Marlins aren't as bad as their current numbers but they aren't as good as last year (losing Cabrera hurts as he had a OPS of 1.173 last year vs. LH's). 

Thanks again for the comments as often it helps me clarify my thinking.  GL. 
 
Texas @ Detroit Over
Verlander's xFIP ('06 - 4.67, '07 - 4.32) has been much higher than his ERA ('06 - 3.63, '07 - 3.66) over his 1st two seasons.  His BB rate has been ok (3.0) and I do like how he increased his strikeout rate to 8.2 last year but he's .  Verlander has struggled this year though with a 4.7 K rate and a 4.0 BB rate.  Padilla has an ok groundball rate (45%) which is the only thing keeping his xFIP's from being even worse (at least 4.54 in each of the L4 years -- 4.28 this year as he's got his groundballs up to 47.3%).  Both Detroit ('07 - .798, '08 - .725) and Texas ('07 - .752, '08 - .747) hit RH's well.
 
Minnesota @ Oakland Over
Blanton took a step forward last year as he continued to improve his control ('05 - 3.1, '06 - 2.6, '07 - 1.6) which gave him a career best xFIP (4.13).  His control has been about as good this year (1.8) but his K rate has dropped to dangerous levels (2.9).  Livan has had xFIP's over 4.50 in each of the past 3 years ('05 - 4.56, '06 - 5.40, '07 - 5.62).  He's started better this year (ERA - 3.00, xFIP - 4.31) by somehow increasing his GB% from about 37% the L3 years to 50% this year along with much better control (1.4 BB/9 this year, about 3.3 the L3 years).  Oakland has a slight edge over RH's in OPS ('06 - .730, '07 - .725) compared to Minnesota ('06 - .725, '07 - .684).
 
quote
WussieMan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
WussieMan
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 17677
Location: New York
#4
Posted: 4/22/2008 6:41:05 AM
quote
baarrn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
baarrn
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 4440
Location:
#5
Posted: 4/22/2008 9:59:02 AM
wussie
 
Tuesday's Card:
Milwaukee -1 (+123)
Pittsburgh -1 (+127)
Rangers/Tigers Over 9.5 (+105)
quote
be easy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
be easy
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 15408
Location: Pennsylvania
#6
Posted: 4/22/2008 10:24:26 AM
all over the Pitt pick myself. Nolasco throws BP, and Maholm is a much better home pitcher than on the road. Marlins bats are rolling, but i see the Buccos picking up the home win behind Maholm. I'm going Pitt 1st 5
quote
TheSportsThing
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TheSportsThing
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 10243
Location: New York
#7
Posted: 4/22/2008 11:03:00 AM
GL
quote
dejotake send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
dejotake
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 52
Location: Spain
#8
Posted: 4/22/2008 12:53:52 PM
I really don't like going against you, baarrn, but I see some value in St.Louis again. I think they have better pen and Lohse is been great so far.

Bye!!

quote
JTFinn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
JTFinn
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 13449
Location: United States
#9
Posted: 4/22/2008 12:56:07 PM
On the Brewers as well.  (Partial on RL)
 
GL 
quote
Seldombeter send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Seldombeter
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 5167
Location: United States
#10
Posted: 4/22/2008 1:07:48 PM
Milw and Pitt are very solid plays. GL baarrn
quote
wilsoa6 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wilsoa6
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 9
Location:
#11
Posted: 4/22/2008 1:31:47 PM
Baarrn (Thoughts of Pitt and FL) -
 
Looking at the stats this seems like its going to be two median to subpar pitchers against two offenses that cant put much together either.  To me it seems Pitt only has a slight advantage if any.  Possibly 51:49.
 
That being said, is this wager based on pot odds.  Meaning, you are getting 1.27:1 on your money and 1:1 so mathmatically you have to take the bet.
 
Or do you think Pitt really has an advantage.
quote
weezy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
weezy
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5251
Location: California
#12
Posted: 4/22/2008 1:42:54 PM
I am on the Cards so one of us will be happy later. I added Pitt as well but took them on the ML.  With Hernandez's improvement this year don't you think there is value in him getting +140's against an A's team that doesn't seem to like to hit the ball with Blanton on the mound.
quote
wilsoa6 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wilsoa6
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 9
Location:
#13
Posted: 4/22/2008 2:20:08 PM
Im going to have to go with Atl -1.5 again tonight.  I see the game going similiar to last nights game but with better pitching on both sides.  Atl will still have the better of the 2 pitchers but the game should be lower scoring.  I would say the under is a possibillity but the bravos bats have been on fire so I still going to avoid it.
quote
baarrn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
baarrn
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 4440
Location:
#14
Posted: 4/22/2008 9:58:39 PM
Sorry I didn't have time to answer or respond to the above comments.  I assume most of them are no longer pertinent but if so, hit me up tonight on Wednesday's thread. 
 
Twins / Athletics Over 8.0 (-107)
quote
GAMBLE_4heisman send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
GAMBLE_4heisman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 4824
Location: United States
#15
Posted: 4/22/2008 10:01:55 PM
your good barn, very solid
quote
Papi_4_MVP send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Papi_4_MVP
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 15370
Location: South Carolina
#16
Posted: 4/22/2008 10:04:54 PM
 
 
Nice job man......Someone pointed me to your threads and they are a nice read......Good luck wiht the A's over
quote
Forum Index : Covers MLB Betting : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.