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Salivating Saturday picks 04/19 (This card will get the oddsmakers fired quicker than Isiah)

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Captain
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Posted: #1
I had a bitter Friday going 1-2, but I'm dead set on putting that in the past and replicate the nice Saturday I had last weekend. There's been too much treading water recently and it's time to shift gears and accelerate a little. If you have already been tailing, just be patient and stay on board because I will hit big soon and if you aren't on board, you'll be left all alone in the train station, penniless.

I will be gone all day so I am doing some unprecedented early capping and will post all my plays shortly. Good luck to everyone. Let's kill the books!
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
             NET UNITS: +5.44             
                               
                      WIN-LOSS ML: 28-22
                     ML NET UNITS:  +9.13
                      WIN-LOSS RL: 1-0
            RL NET UNITS: +1.45
                       WIN-LOSS O/U: 3-7
                     OU NET UNITS: -4.15
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
* Chi Cubs -130

The Cubbies came through for me yesterday and there's no reason to believe they won't do it again. I just don't like the lack of respect the books are giving them with these weak home lines. Marquis and Gorgonzola are a wash here but the Cubs bullpen is considerably better and I like their lineup a little better moving forward. Throw in some home field and there is considerable value here.
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
* Detroit +100

This line is an absolute steal. The Tiger bats are really heating up and that's terrible news for the usually consistent Dustin McGowan. Dustin already got shelled by the Tigers last year and he will be opposed by Bonderman who has historically owned the Blue Jays. This is a matter of wrong place, wrong time for Toronto as the Tigers continue their winning ways.
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
* Philly +112

The Mets nice little run could very well end right here. To get a dog this good at this price at home is rare and you shouldn't think twice about betting here. Perez struggles against the Phils while Moyer is money against the Mets. I like the Phils offense a little better in this matchup and have Philly as moderate favs here. Bank it.
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
* Seattle +143

Here's a nice dog to suit your greedy appetite's. I don't see the Angels as being a much better team than Seattle. This was quite evident Friday when the Mariners nearly nipped them. The Mariners lineup is hitting quite well recently while the Angels are still missing Howie Kendrick. Washburn and Santana should be an even matchup, which tells you the line should not be as pricey as it is. Chomp on this value.
 
Captain
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Posted: #7
That's it everyone. I wish all of you the best of luck independent of what plays you make. I appreciate any posts and feedback you make, but unfortunately I won't be able to respond until later in the night when I get back to a computer. Hopefully when I return I see that we've concluded a 3-1 or 4-0 night. I hope everyone has a great Saturday.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:

* Detroit +100

This line is an absolute steal. The Tiger bats are really heating up and that's terrible news for the usually consistent Dustin McGowan. Dustin already got shelled by the Tigers last year and he will be opposed by Bonderman who has historically owned the Blue Jays. This is a matter of wrong place, wrong time for Toronto as the Tigers continue their winning ways.


mcgowan at home is a monster....bonderman has had decent numbers v tor but his bb/k ratio is awful this year. he throws way too many pitches

polanco out today
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9

Dont like the card at all, i mean you have some good reasons but they dont make sense. NEVER say Moyer is money in the bank, the guy is old, he leaves the ball up vs the Mets that is bad news.  Cubs pen is better than pirates, not sure how you see that.  Both have pitched alot of innings, cubs and pirates always play close.  McGowan is lights out at home,  Bonderman hasnt turned in a good start yet.

But GL i suppose ill be going otherway in most

 
Legend
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Posted: #10
gl bro love detroit and the cubs also
 
Banned
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:

* Chi Cubs -130

 the Cubs bullpen is considerably better and I like their lineup a little better moving forward. Throw in some home field and there is considerable value here.

How do you figure Cubs BP "considerably better"?

             BP last 3      BP WHIP

PIT           4.00              1.26                     

CHC         3.94              1.45                      

 

 
Captain
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Posted: #12
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Bro can you tell me how Bonderman has owned the Jays? It seems he hasn't beaten them in 3 years.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
you're on the cubs and tigers as well... (badlands other)
 
i was leaning on both those teams but im giving the 5 run system a try so im on the opposite
 
I may have to reconsider
 
Rookie
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:

* Detroit +100

This line is an absolute steal. The Tiger bats are really heating up and that's terrible news for the usually consistent Dustin McGowan. Dustin already got shelled by the Tigers last year and he will be opposed by Bonderman who has historically owned the Blue Jays. This is a matter of wrong place, wrong time for Toronto as the Tigers continue their winning ways.


Dustin McGowan (R) Previous Starts vs. Detroit

09/26/06 @ DET 3-4 200/9 L/U 2.0 2 2 0 1 1 0 44 22.0 0.67
08/21/05 @ DET 6-17 109/9.5 L/O 4.1 9 12 10 2 2 2 95 21.9 0.38
08/09/05 DET 6-4 -110/9.5 W/O 6.1 8 4 4 4 1 0 90 14.2 0.44

Was last year, 2005?
 
Rookie
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Posted: #16
Not playing the Cubs game, but agree with all your other picks.  Have a good day...
 
Captain
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Posted: #17
Wow, a really horrible day. I was getting a lot of heat from you guys, which I guess was warranted for today. I missed badly with the Seattle game but I only lost the other two games by a combined 3 runs. I also had to cap these games in the early morning hours without the starting lineups, which I have never done before and for good reason because I don't get a perfect read for value. I just got home from a soccer tournament and have not analyzed today's card to see what went wrong.

I would like to apologize if anyone tailed today. I think I might take Sunday off to look at a few things and update some numbers that might have become stagnant. That way, I can come out fresh on Monday and get this sucker back on track.

1-3
-4.46 UNITS

* Detroit -2 UNITS

* Philly -2 UNITS

* Chi Cubs +1.54 UNITS

* Seattle -2 UNITS
 
Captain
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Posted: #18
             NET UNITS: +0.98             
                               
                      WIN-LOSS ML: 28-22
                     ML NET UNITS:  +4.67
                      WIN-LOSS RL: 1-0
            RL NET UNITS: +1.45
                       WIN-LOSS O/U: 3-7
                     OU NET UNITS: -4.15
 
 
Banned
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Posted: #19
 Well, you were right about the Cubs. The Pirates sucked big time--the bullpen and the starter! Good luck. Hang in there. Baseball is streaky.
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