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[MLB Betting] Topic: Flat betting in Baseball.... |
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vanzack |
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#1 Posted: 4/14/2008 9:00:14 AM I constantly see people say they flat bet baseball by using 1 unit as a base, and then risking enough to win 1 unit on a fav, and risking 1 unit on a dog. Example:
If you are betting a -115 fav, you bet 115 to win 100, and if you are betting a +160 dog, you bet 100 to win 160.
THIS IS NOT FLAT BETTING!!!!
Flat betting means that all of your bets have equal weighting, and this obviously puts high favs or high dogs at more importance than closer to even money favs and dogs.
I flat bet by taking my unit amount (1 in this example), and bet the amount that the risk + the win = double the unit size.
For example:
-120 fav: risk .91 to win 1.09
+150 dog: risk .80 to win 1.20
-200 fav: risk 1.33 to win .67
+180 dog: risk .72 to win 1.28
This way, every game has equal value and is true flat betting.
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HeyRube |
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#2 Posted: 4/14/2008 9:05:02 AM yeah but try that with these no calculator owning degenerate locals i have to deall with  they can barely keep my figure right using 1 unit fav or dog.....  |
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vanzack |
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#3 Posted: 4/14/2008 9:16:46 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by HeyRube:
yeah but try that with these no calculator owning degenerate locals i have to deall with they can barely keep my figure right using 1 unit fav or dog.....
I suggest that if you are serious about making money betting, you make a change.
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HeyRube |
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#4 Posted: 4/14/2008 9:19:32 AM i thought about opening a matchbook account i just like to go get my money every tuesday...cash.... none of the mail a check in a few weeks bullshit like i got with wsex and bookmaker  |
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skydragon58 |
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#5 Posted: 4/14/2008 9:44:18 AM Hi vanzack,
Thanks for the "lesson" I want to learn how to make money at betting and your knowledge and insight is always welcome to me. I don't always understand what you are saying but it usually sticks in my mind and comes together as time goes by. Thanks again. |
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kcdjr25 |
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#6 Posted: 4/14/2008 9:55:19 AM i thought this was a place to talk about games  guess i was wrong. by the way you have the worst avatar around u and penis boy vanzack  |
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kcdjr25 |
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#7 Posted: 4/14/2008 9:58:09 AM who cares if its flat or not, 1 unit to some is a hundred and some its a thousand who cares... if i have a million and bet 50 units-50gs, if i lose it mean s nothing just like your post  |
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KOAJ |
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#8 Posted: 4/14/2008 10:22:09 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by kcdjr25: i thought this was a place to talk about games guess i was wrong. by the way you have the worst avatar around u and penis boy vanzack
fool - would you rather vanzack use big typefont and colors? and some nice emoticons?
does that make it better for you?
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TheGoldenGoose |
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#9 Posted: 4/14/2008 10:49:30 AM
should read:
+120 dog: risk.91 to win 1.09
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vanzack |
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#10 Posted: 4/14/2008 10:50:37 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by kcdjr25:
who cares if its flat or not, 1 unit to some is a hundred and some its a thousand who cares... if i have a million and bet 50 units-50gs, if i lose it mean s nothing just like your post
And such is the current state of covers.
Without a "lock of the day" thread title, or a pick inside - people just arent interested in making more money. They just want their next fix.
This thread was intended for those interested in being serious about making money, not those interested in afternoon action with their local for fun.
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vanzack |
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#11 Posted: 4/14/2008 10:53:17 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose: -120 fav: risk .91 to win 1.09
should read:+120 dog: risk.91 to win 1.09
CORRECT!!!
I actually looked over those examples 3 times and knew I would still darn one of them up.
(colors, emoticons, and typeface added for effect)
   
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JGROMACK |
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#12 Posted: 4/14/2008 11:08:17 AM Alot of local bettors are betting with cash they need to get by.
Personal I cash out when I get to a certain amount in a book.
Van quick ?
Say if you really like one play will you up the wager on that play.
I know if that loses, your chances of being profitable for the day have decreased. I guess what I'm getting at is if you really commit yourself to flat wagering, should every wager always be your norm.
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nccashman |
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#13 Posted: 4/14/2008 11:16:57 AM I understand what you are saying, however, I never short change my dogs. If I am using $100 units, I always wager $100 to win $+++ money on my dogs. I adjust the wager amount down if in the rare case that I ever bet on a favorite. The most recent fav that I took was Philly when Hamels was pitching vs. the Cubs. Line was -151, I wagered 105 to win 70. This may not be flat betting but I am pretty sure that I will come out way ahead by wagering the full unit on my dogs. |
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vanzack |
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#14 Posted: 4/14/2008 11:21:07 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by JGROMACK:
Alot of local bettors are betting with cash they need to get by.
Personal I cash out when I get to a certain amount in a book.
Van quick ?
Say if you really like one play will you up the wager on that play.
I know if that loses, your chances of being profitable for the day have decreased. I guess what I'm getting at is if you really commit yourself to flat wagering, should every wager always be your norm.
I dont measure things like "am I profitable for the day". Not being obnoxious, just telling you that a "day", "week", or "month" are arbitrary time periods. I dont want to be profitable today, I want to be profitable longterm - so your question doesnt apply to me.
If you flat bet, you should bet all of your bets the same. Some flat bet with a higher unit size and a lower unit size. Personally, I bet baseball based on 1 unit plays and 1.5 unit plays, never higher and never lower.
GL
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vanzack |
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#15 Posted: 4/14/2008 11:23:08 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by nccashman:
I understand what you are saying, however, I never short change my dogs. If I am using $100 units, I always wager $100 to win $+++ money on my dogs. I adjust the wager amount down if in the rare case that I ever bet on a favorite. The most recent fav that I took was Philly when Hamels was pitching vs. the Cubs. Line was -151, I wagered 105 to win 70. This may not be flat betting but I am pretty sure that I will come out way ahead by wagering the full unit on my dogs.
This is fine, but please understand you are not flat betting.
Clearly a +130 dog is less important in your betting strategy than a +180 dog. If you are OK with that, then fine, but if for some reason your +180 plays come in less than your +130 plays (weighted) then you are going to lose money.
GL
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nccashman |
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#16 Posted: 4/14/2008 11:49:34 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:
This is fine, but please understand you are not flat betting.
Clearly a +130 dog is less important in your betting strategy than a +180 dog. If you are OK with that, then fine, but if for some reason your +180 plays come in less than your +130 plays (weighted) then you are going to lose money.
GL
Yes you are correct, however, my % on +180 would have to be 25 points lower than my % on +130 for that to happen. Possible but not probable in the long run. I have not seen many people talk about flat betting but if it works for you, that's great. I think as far as baseball wagering goes, that the most important thing is to wager on dogs 80 to 90% of the time. This will keep your bankroll growing whether you flat bet or whatever.  |
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skydragon58 |
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#17 Posted: 4/14/2008 11:54:51 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:
Clearly a +130 dog is less important in your betting strategy than a +180 dog. If you are OK with that, then fine, but if for some reason your +180 plays come in less than your +130 plays (weighted) then you are going to lose money.
GL
Van,
Assuming dog plays win how can you lose money on any dog? Whether it's +130 or +180. I know you win more with +180 but I don't understand how you would lose money if betting +130's |
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ILL |
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#18 Posted: 4/14/2008 12:15:48 PM vanzack i have a question for ya, i'm not that experienced with baseball betting but am trying it out this year..
anyway, my local offers all run lines at 10% juice. that is, if the cubs are -1.5 at +150 and the cardinals are +1.5 at -170, it doesn't matter - i get the cubs -1.5 at 10% and cardinals +1.5 at 10%.
i realize that this is a huge darn up on his part, but he does not realize this.
my question is, what would be the best way to exploit this advantage? it seems as if i should just bet every single +1.5 run line every single day, since +1.5 run lines usually are like -150 and up, but i'm getting it at 10%.
anyway, any advice is valued and appreciated. |
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ILL |
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#19 Posted: 4/14/2008 12:19:02 PM also, i realize that i could pretty much guarantee myself money by betting all +1.5 thru my book at 10% juice and betting all -1.5 at like +150 thru an online book but i would rather not do that, i'm sick of online books like blowdog. |
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vanzack |
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#20 Posted: 4/14/2008 12:19:39 PM If anyone wants to put this in an excel spreadsheet, this is how you do it:
So on a spreadsheet it looks like this...
Cell A1 type "Unit Amount"
Cell B1 enter desired midpoint of your wager
Cell A2 type "Line"
Cell B2 enter line (with no - or +, for instance "120" or "180")
Cell C1 type "Bet amount if dog"
Cell C2 enter formula: "+(A2*2)/((B2/100)+1)"
Cell D1 type "Bet amount if fav"
Cell D2 enter formula: "+(A1*2)-C2
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vanzack |
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#21 Posted: 4/14/2008 12:29:13 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:
If anyone wants to put this in an excel spreadsheet, this is how you do it:
So on a spreadsheet it looks like this...
Cell A1 type "Unit Amount"
Cell B1 enter desired midpoint of your wager
Cell A2 type "Line"
Cell B2 enter line (with no - or +, for instance "120" or "180")
Cell C1 type "Bet amount if dog"
Cell C2 enter formula: "+(A2*2)/((B2/100)+1)"
Cell D1 type "Bet amount if fav"
Cell D2 enter formula: "+(A1*2)-C2
CORRECTION:
I fucked that up horribly....
Let me try that again....
Cell A1 type "Unit Amount"
Cell B1 enter desired midpoint of your wager
Cell A2 type "Line"
Cell B2 enter line (with no - or +, for instance "120" or "180")
Cell A3 type "Bet amount if dog"
Cell B3 enter formula: "+(B1*2)/((B2/100)+1)"
Cell A4 type "Bet amount if fav"
Cell B4 enter formula: "+(B1*2)-C2
SOrry |
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G8RB8 |
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#22 Posted: 4/14/2008 12:32:52 PM AH. . . that's why I wasn't getting the function right.
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HotRoute |
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#23 Posted: 4/14/2008 1:03:50 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:
CORRECTION:
I fucked that up horribly....
Let me try that again....
Cell A1 type "Unit Amount"
Cell B1 enter desired midpoint of your wager
Cell A2 type "Line"
Cell B2 enter line (with no - or +, for instance "120" or "180")
Cell A3 type "Bet amount if dog"
Cell B3 enter formula: "+(B1*2)/((B2/100)+1)"
Cell A4 type "Bet amount if fav"
Cell B4 enter formula: "+(B1*2)-C2
SOrry
Thanks for that info vanzack... |
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lanastasis |
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#24 Posted: 4/14/2008 1:07:39 PM
My -180 are as successful over time as well as -130 and +130 and +180. I've been risking 1 unit on every bet, no matter what. Every bet is the same. Do you see a reason to change this to your method?
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gcnmoo |
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#25 Posted: 4/14/2008 1:21:52 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:
This is fine, but please understand you are not flat betting.
Clearly a +130 dog is less important in your betting strategy than a +180 dog. If you are OK with that, then fine, but if for some reason your +180 plays come in less than your +130 plays (weighted) then you are going to lose money.
GL
Van, I am somewhat confused. You say if the +180 plays come in less than the +130 plays you will not profit. This is simply not true. You do not expect to win the +180 plays as often as the +130 plays do, nor do you need them to come in as often.
Example 100 plays at +180, you win 40 lose 60, if you are risking 1 unit, you profit 12 units
100 plays at +130, you win 45 lose 55, you profit 3.5 units.
I think you should risk the same on any sized dog, becuase the number of times you need to win is all relative to the size of the dog. You are simply short changing yourself if you bet more on the +130 dogs when you believe both have equal value. Just my two cents, correct me if I have mispoken. |
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