Rainman's Trends

Forum: MLB Betting
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Rainman's Trends
ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:30:40 PM
Good afternoon fellas,

There is (so far, at least) just one pitcher that I'd like to talk about today.


1) Luis Severino

This pitcher may seem like an unlikely choice considering his high 3.86 ERA and 3.75 FIP, which his recent abysmal performance against the Astros is largely responsible for. But don't be alarmed by these numbers, for two reasons: 1) Severino is historically much worse at Yankee stadium. In his career, Severino's FIP is 4.94 at home compared to 3.58 on the road. 2) Houston is an excellent fastball-hitting team. Tampa Bay provides a much better matchup for Severino. Severino is very much a power pitcher because he relies most of all on a blazing fastball that averages 97.2 mph but also on a slider that averages 87.6 mph. Yet the Rays struggle most against power pitchers, producing a mere .687 ops against power pitchers compared to .828 vs finesse pitchers. The Rays have faced multiple power ground ball pitchers and they have consistently struggled against them at home. For instance, against a Nathan Karns-led Royals squad, the Rays lost 3-7 and against a Joe Biagini-led Jays squad, the Rays lost 1-2. Even at home, on April 13th, Severino gave up just two runs in seven innings (2.18 FIP) against the Rays, last year he pitched 5.1 innings of relief in Tampa Bay, allowing just one hit and zero runs (0.15 FIP, 1.65 FIP, 2.65 FIP in the three respective outings) and in his last start in Tampa Bay in September, 2015 he gave up just one run in 5.2 innings (1.19 FIP). Severino has historical success in Tampa Bay because he matches up well against Rays' batters. Behind Severino the Yankees have the best bullpen in the MLB as measured by FIP (2.53). I expect the Rays to struggle to score tonight. Look at the Rays TT 'under.'  

I wish everybody happy betting, today!


mdelvalle PM mdelvalle
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:34:11 PM
BOL!!
tinfoils PM tinfoils
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:38:17 PM
Excellent as always!
Cuno144 PM Cuno144
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:44:10 PM
appreciate your work, read your thread for yesterday's pitcher. you were spot on!! 
Brickboy PM Brickboy
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Posted: 5/19/2017 4:20:22 PM
Appreciate your work ,Thanks
garister PM garister
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Posted: 5/19/2017 4:22:35 PM
Good Luck
ICT_Finest PM ICT_Finest
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Posted: 5/19/2017 4:49:13 PM
Hey man what source do you use for FIP and other metrics? Great info here
Posted using a mobile device.
ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 5/19/2017 9:01:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ICT_Finest:

Hey man what source do you use for FIP and other metrics? Great info here


Fangraphs. That site contains a lot of amazing Info. If you haven't been there before, it'll overwhelm you because of the mass of data that it contains. But click around, type some names in (I just use it for pitcher data) and I think it's worth the time.
ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 5/19/2017 9:40:50 PM
You gotta be kidding me. Infield once again fails to come through with a very makable play and it doesn't get scored an error. Twice in a row bit by the Yankees defense.
DanielStacks PM DanielStacks
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Posted: 5/19/2017 9:47:08 PM
Jags thoughts on 710 games I sent a friend request 
ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 5/19/2017 9:55:17 PM
710 games? Sorry, what do you mean?
VTHokies1888 PM VTHokies1888
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Posted: 5/19/2017 9:56:34 PM
Jags, whats up buddy? you still betting?? Who the hell is rainman? lol
DanielStacks PM DanielStacks
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Posted: 5/19/2017 9:58:09 PM
Late games dodgers vs marlins padres vs dbacks and white sox vs Seattle 7:10 pm I'm on the west coast 
DanielStacks PM DanielStacks
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Posted: 5/19/2017 10:03:58 PM
ANy thoughts?
ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 5/19/2017 10:46:20 PM
Oh, sorry, i'm east coast, and now i'm late. Let's win tomorrow.

VT, hey man. Thanks for stopping by, it's great to talk to you again. I post daily mlb write-ups, tomorrow I start writing for sbr, as well. Rainman is a nickname that some friends gave me because i'll text them random but often prophetic bits of data in the middle of the night. Have you been been betting more nhl or baseball? I hope you stop by more often, let's win together!
VTHokies1888 PM VTHokies1888
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Posted: 5/19/2017 10:49:15 PM
NHL more buddy, dabble with baseball here and there. good stuff brother, i'll see you around 
markf PM markf
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Posted: 5/20/2017 12:02:54 AM
At the risk of sounding really ignorant what is sbr ?
rlovsin17 PM rlovsin17
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Posted: 5/20/2017 1:08:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by markf:

At the risk of sounding really ignorant what is sbr ?
its another forum, google it but don't say it too much around here
rlovsin17 PM rlovsin17
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Posted: 5/20/2017 1:10:11 AM
surprised you didn't have anything for our boy Weaver today. That's basically a given to fade away nowadays
ProudJagsfan PM ProudJagsfan
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Posted: 5/20/2017 1:47:16 AM
Gotta keep it interesting 
The_Nights_King PM The_Nights_King
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Posted: 5/20/2017 10:52:23 AM
PJF, good to see you're still at it...feel like we came up in college bball together, haha. Good quality stuff you have going on here, keep it up. It's appreciated.

-TNK
Brocknroll PM Brocknroll
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Posted: 5/20/2017 10:59:34 AM
Proudjags-

Awesome write-ups.  Many thanks for taking the time.


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