|Good afternoon fellas,
Posted: 5/19/2017 2:30:40 PM
There is (so far, at least) just one pitcher that I'd like to talk about today.
1) Luis Severino
This pitcher may seem like an unlikely choice considering his high 3.86 ERA and 3.75 FIP, which his recent abysmal performance against the Astros is largely responsible for. But don't be alarmed by these numbers, for two reasons: 1) Severino is historically much worse at Yankee stadium. In his career, Severino's FIP is 4.94 at home compared to 3.58 on the road. 2) Houston is an excellent fastball-hitting team. Tampa Bay provides a much better matchup for Severino. Severino is very much a power pitcher because he relies most of all on a blazing fastball that averages 97.2 mph but also on a slider that averages 87.6 mph. Yet the Rays struggle most against power pitchers, producing a mere .687 ops against power pitchers compared to .828 vs finesse pitchers. The Rays have faced multiple power ground ball pitchers and they have consistently struggled against them at home. For instance, against a Nathan Karns-led Royals squad, the Rays lost 3-7 and against a Joe Biagini-led Jays squad, the Rays lost 1-2. Even at home, on April 13th, Severino gave up just two runs in seven innings (2.18 FIP) against the Rays, last year he pitched 5.1 innings of relief in Tampa Bay, allowing just one hit and zero runs (0.15 FIP, 1.65 FIP, 2.65 FIP in the three respective outings) and in his last start in Tampa Bay in September, 2015 he gave up just one run in 5.2 innings (1.19 FIP). Severino has historical success in Tampa Bay because he matches up well against Rays' batters. Behind Severino the Yankees have the best bullpen in the MLB as measured by FIP (2.53). I expect the Rays to struggle to score tonight. Look at the Rays TT 'under.'
I wish everybody happy betting, today!