Time to Fade the Braves

Forum: MLB Betting
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Time to Fade the Braves
BIGDTITLE PM BIGDTITLE
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 3042
 
BIGDTITLE
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/19/2017 11:53:42 AM
without Freeman in the lineup this team will struggle and be the Braves we thought they would be this year.  Fade them for 10 weeks while Freeman is out and see how we do.
PlayWithThem PM PlayWithThem
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 182
 
PlayWithThem
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 5/19/2017 12:01:53 PM
Not the greatest of strategies. Freeman's absence will be heavily factored in the lines.
KeyElement PM KeyElement
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 15687
 
KeyElement
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 5/19/2017 2:06:21 PM
Never works.When teams are playing poorly the lines against them just continue to grow. They win just enough to keep things honest, quite often when they are only playing 35 to 40% ball. the line against them today is already -164, and that is already a 62.1% win probability just to break even.
BIGDTITLE PM BIGDTITLE
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 3042
 
BIGDTITLE
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/19/2017 3:10:24 PM
play run lines then.....trust me, they will not be competitive.....they just lost their Kawhi Leonard.
PlayWithThem PM PlayWithThem
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 182
 
PlayWithThem
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 5/19/2017 5:27:46 PM
Not having Freeman will probably cost them about 3 to 4 wins in that stretch. How do I get that number: Freeman was on pace to be about a 9 WAR player this year. Pro-rate that over 50 or so games, and there you have it. If anything, betting on the Braves on certain games might be the way to go, as bettors overreacting will influence the line.
fadeORdie PM fadeORdie
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 3754
 
fadeORdie
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/19/2017 5:34:25 PM
Looks like a winning strategy to me
Forum: MLB Betting
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View