Bob's MLB Friday

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Bob's MLB Friday
BirdsOnBat PM BirdsOnBat
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Posted: 5/18/2017 9:52:39 PM
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MLB 2017
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Summary
Record: 87-76-2 (53%)
Beginning Bankroll: $10,000
Avg. Wager Size: $98.03 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll); +101 avg line
Profit: +$1,040.81 (+10.41 Units), +6.43% Return on Risk

Splits
ML: 47-43 (52%), +4.72% Return on Risk
RL: 12-14-0 (46%), -2.66% Return on Risk
O/U: 28-19-2 (60%), +14.54% Return on Risk

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Performance History
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Overall
2017: 87-76-2 (53%), +6.43% Return on Risk
2016: 259-224-20 (54%), +3.80% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk

Picks of the Day
2017: 36-23-0 (61%), +17.92% Return on Risk
2016: 81-65-7 (55%), +6.90% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk

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Thursday
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1-2, -$110.00

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Friday
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Always tough to get threads going for Friday, so I am posting now.

Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 RL +120, Walker/Weaver

Chicago White Sox -101, Quintana/Miranda

New York Yankees -123, Severino/Ramirez

Houston Astros -1 RL +103, Bauer/Morton
Used -138 ML and +145 RL

KeyElement PM KeyElement
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Posted: 5/18/2017 10:34:11 PM
undermysac PM undermysac
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Posted: 5/18/2017 10:40:22 PM
Damn that's  the 4 I'm looking at as well...I can't figure out that line on the White Sox, why is it at that price?

Sox Travel from LA, Quintana has been close to quality starts in his last 2 but not quite. His previous 2 to those were great starts. Miranda still a little wet behind the ears looked good in his last outing but how long can he last vs a team that hits southpaws well? That Mariner bullpen is taxed beyond comprehension, and the Sox pen is top of the class.

Mind if I ask what you make your line? I got Sox -120 ish. Yet I'm gunshy, Good Luck
undermysac PM undermysac
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Posted: 5/18/2017 10:51:05 PM
Scratch that part about travel...
Tad PM Tad
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Posted: 5/18/2017 11:21:37 PM
Nice and early! I like it! GL 
BirdsOnBat PM BirdsOnBat
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Posted: 5/19/2017 12:18:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by undermysac:


Mind if I ask what you make your line? I got Sox -120 ish. Yet I'm gunshy, Good Luck


Always willing to share that detail, but it's rare for people to ask...

I arrived at a win probability of 54%, which would be between -115 and -120... making the game playable with an expected RoR of ~7.50%

I look for 5% or more (expected Return on Risk) for regular plays and 10% or more for PODs.
BirdsOnBat PM BirdsOnBat
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Posted: 5/19/2017 12:20:38 AM
Interesting line to keep your eye on... the Angels as big dogs vs the Mets. The Angels could be in play, but I'd really like to see +150. Will still consider it at +135 or better.
dcgmt PM dcgmt
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Posted: 5/19/2017 6:32:58 AM
GLBirds
Natty68 PM Natty68
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Posted: 5/19/2017 8:45:49 AM
A must read every morning!  Good luck today
officialdkd PM officialdkd
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Posted: 5/19/2017 9:11:27 AM
Like the picks! BOL
BirdsOnBat PM BirdsOnBat
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Posted: 5/19/2017 1:51:36 PM
Add:

Milwaukee/Chicago Over 7.5 -120, Espino/Butler
mdelvalle PM mdelvalle
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Posted: 5/19/2017 1:54:42 PM
officialdkd PM officialdkd
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Posted: 5/19/2017 1:57:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:

Add:

Milwaukee/Chicago Over 7.5 -120, Espino/Butler

I'm so pissed bout this line. 
I was impatient Earlier and grabbed OVER 8.5 -105. So annoying 
dbasports PM dbasports
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:05:06 PM
Game most likely rained out Cubs we still going for it? Don't want them to cAll it after 6 but is that the risk we take for the low total?
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RLeith35 PM RLeith35
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:12:33 PM
The Angels head to New York tonight to open a series against the Mets and come into the contest with a 25-9 record in their last 34 games versus NL East opponents.
Pse4pt PM Pse4pt
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:12:50 PM
BOL BOB! Just checked the over for the cubs game 30 min ago and it was at 8...I'm glad I didn't pull the trigger then. Just checked your posts and saw you picked it as POD, so I went back and it dropped to 7.5. Thanks!
Cuno144 PM Cuno144
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:53:39 PM
im a bit worried about the dback game, they're just horrendous on the road. Yes they're facing off an old jered weaver, but still they dont seem to produce runs on the road.
pipedoctor PM pipedoctor
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:58:14 PM
birds 
Sareesataka PM Sareesataka
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Posted: 5/19/2017 4:18:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Cuno144:

im a bit worried about the dback game, they're just horrendous on the road. Yes they're facing off an old jered weaver, but still they dont seem to produce runs on the road.

I looked at this angle as well. But damn it, I'm hoping the DBacks get it going for once against Weaver. If they lose, then so be it. Let's face it though, if the DBacks can't hit against Weaver, they might as well write off this season.

On the DBacks RL as well for 1 unit.

GL evryone.
BirdsOnBat PM BirdsOnBat
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Posted: 5/19/2017 4:29:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Cuno144:

im a bit worried about the dback game, they're just horrendous on the road. Yes they're facing off an old jered weaver, but still they dont seem to produce runs on the road.


I hear ya, but I capped the pitcher they are facing today. They've had some rough matchups on the road: scherzer, gonzalez, kershaw, wood, and hill. That will tend to skew the runs scored a bit. I wouldn't get too caught up over 16 games worth of data spread out over nearly two months.

On that note, any big league starter can shut down an offense on any given day and it happens. Today, the line value is on the Diamondbacks RL (when I took it).

Good luck
BirdsOnBat PM BirdsOnBat
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Posted: 5/19/2017 4:40:50 PM
Tarp is coming onto the field in the top of the 6th inning with runners on second/third with nobody out. Need one more run for this to hit. Sounds like it should clear up temporarily for a bit shortly. Hoping this hits!
dbasports PM dbasports
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Posted: 5/19/2017 4:50:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dbasports:

Game most likely rained out Cubs we still going for it? Don't want them to cAll it after 6 but is that the risk we take for the low total?
don't do this to me!!!!
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KeyElement PM KeyElement
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Posted: 5/19/2017 4:57:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dbasports:

don't do this to me!!!!
If the game is called your over bet will be cancelled. Must go 9 innings or 8.5 if the home team is ahead. The total was set seemingly low because the wet wind is blowing straight in. Not to worry. If the game is resumed it will probably go over.
BirdsOnBat PM BirdsOnBat
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Posted: 5/19/2017 6:30:11 PM
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Friday *** Final ***
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Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 RL +120, Walker/Weaver

Chicago White Sox -101, Quintana/Miranda

Milwaukee/Chicago Over 7.5 -120, Espino/Butler

New York Yankees -123, Severino/Ramirez

Houston Astros -1 RL +103, Bauer/Morton

Philadelphia/Pittsburgh Over 5 F5 -110, Hellickson/Williams
KeyElement PM KeyElement
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Posted: 5/19/2017 10:34:19 PM
Well, BoB, that is quite the trick. We both manage to lose with opposite sides in the same game. The baseball gods are angry about something.
 
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