Beat the sweep system

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Beat the sweep system
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/19/2017 11:34:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Boston_Brad:

$$$$ 2 down from this weekend series!

What part of Boston do you reside in?

Yes, let's go!

North of the city.
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/19/2017 11:37:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dannyle0507:

Today play?
Bal
Pitt
TB
Det
Minn
Stl


Correct. Still toying with CHC, would love anyone else's input. I love the match-up they have today, which is why i'm thinking about putting them in. 
Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/19/2017 11:58:12 AM
During rain games, the home team generally wins 52% of the time. There will most likely be a delay during the game which favors the hitters. The Brewers bats are hot right now and Thames is back in the lineup. With Sogard on FIRE right now. Cubs are favored because they're in Wrigley an defending champs. They have a youngun who's 1-0 w/0.00 era hitting 95+ on his fastball. Natural game two regression is expected IMO. I'm taking the plus money with the brew crew and those bats of gold right now.
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Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/19/2017 12:18:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Boston_Brad:

During rain games, the home team generally wins 52% of the time. There will most likely be a delay during the game which favors the hitters. The Brewers bats are hot right now and Thames is back in the lineup. With Sogard on FIRE right now. Cubs are favored because they're in Wrigley an defending champs. They have a youngun who's 1-0 w/0.00 era hitting 95+ on his fastball. Natural game two regression is expected IMO. I'm taking the plus money with the brew crew and those bats of gold right now.

All valid points. Looking forward to Arietta and Lackey at home. I'm leaning more towards cubbies, they just don't get swept at home.
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Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/19/2017 12:28:45 PM
Areitta is not the pitcher he once was. Lackey I can see winning. They're only advantage is playing in Wrigley. Im only going with them on this one game. If they lose, I'm staying far away from that series. BOL either way.

I live 20 mins south of Boston. Maybe we catch a game one day.
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Dannyle0507 PM Dannyle0507
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:09:14 PM
Are we playing cubs?
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:14:50 PM
I'm playing them. Hopefully this doesn't come back to bite me in the arse.

Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:18:46 PM
So, 2-0 going into the weekend of this series. Pending:

Bal -115
Pitt -122
TB +110
Det -135
Min -112
Stl -140
Chc - 155

GL all. Would love to get 3/4 out of the way tonight. 
janton PM janton
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:28:21 PM
martingale system , this system has been around for very long time ,, its playing into the casinos hand , you will lose 
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:30:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by janton:

martingale system , this system has been around for very long time ,, its playing into the casinos hand , you will lose 

Thank you for the valuable insight.
Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:42:45 PM
40 pitches for Butler in the first inning. Yikes. It'll be interesting to see how long he'll last.
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Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:47:43 PM
Not the best start... That's why they play 9 though.
Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/19/2017 2:49:39 PM
Agreed. Anything can happen. That's some nasty wind blowing in from L to L/C. That Rizzo out would've been a home run in almost any other park.
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Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/20/2017 1:19:22 PM
Today we will get PIT/DET/STL! Let's go!!!!
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Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/21/2017 11:29:54 PM
Another full sweep with the STL win today.

What's on tap for Monday and Tuesday?
Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/22/2017 12:10:23 AM
And the CHI win, even tho I cashed on MIL Friday night.

From what I can see, these plays look to follow your guideline. Thoughts?
Series for Monday 5/22

Dbacks (H)
Cubs (H)
Astros (H)
TB (H)
Clev (A)
NYY (H)
COL (A)

Series for Tuesday 5/23

WAS (H)
BOS (H)
OAK (H)
MIL (H)
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Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/22/2017 8:20:04 AM
Solid series again! Went 8-1. I lost 150 on CHC gm 1 then didn't move forward after the rain out. +650. Brings our 4 series total to +4050. 
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/22/2017 8:40:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Boston_Brad:

And the CHI win, even tho I cashed on MIL Friday night.

From what I can see, these plays look to follow your guideline. Thoughts?
Series for Monday 5/22

Dbacks (H)
Cubs (H)
Astros (H)
TB (H)
Clev (A)
NYY (H)
COL (A)

Series for Tuesday 5/23

WAS (H)
BOS (H)
OAK (H)
MIL (H)

Doing some research and will most likely play all of these. On the fence about Cincy/Cle though. 
Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/22/2017 9:28:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Big_Tone21:

Originally Posted by Boston_Brad] And the CHI win, even tho I cashed on MIL Friday night. From what I can see, these plays look to follow your guideline. Thoughts?Series for Monday 5/22Dbacks (H)Cubs (H)Astros (H)TB (H)Clev (A)NYY (H)COL (A)Series for Tuesday 5/23WAS (H)BOS (H)OAK (H)MIL (H)
Doing some research and will most likely play all of these. On the fence about Cincy/Cle though.

With Clevland sitting at .625 on the road and CIN 1 game over .500 @ home, I'm going to play it.

BOL this week Big Tone!!!
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therealdutch PM therealdutch
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Posted: 5/22/2017 11:17:21 AM
the Cle/Cincy series is a 4 game home/home (2 in Cincy, 2 in Cle).  not sure about this deviation from the original system.  Cleveland is hot and cincy's pitching is a mess, but i thought i'd point out the home/home setup of this series.
Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/22/2017 11:21:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by therealdutch:

the Cle/Cincy series is a 4 game home/home (2 in Cincy, 2 in Cle).  not sure about this deviation from the original system.  Cleveland is hot and cincy's pitching is a mess, but i thought i'd point out the home/home setup of this series.


I did not realize this is a home and home series. The nice thing about the Indians is they have an above 500 record at home and on the road.
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therealdutch PM therealdutch
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Posted: 5/22/2017 11:25:49 AM
yeah, i went ahead and put it in on CLE b/c it's cheap ML, and they'll come home for the last 2 of the series, so better tilt in their favor on the series chase.
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/22/2017 1:11:31 PM
I think i'm passing on the CLE series. Want to stick with my original plan, but GL to you guys in that series. 
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/22/2017 1:22:25 PM
Might be worth looking into the BAL and LAD series. Both awesome at home, but playing very food away teams. 
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/22/2017 4:48:18 PM
I'm playing the BAL series. GL all!


NYY (H) -169
BAL (H) -132
ARI (H) -185
CHC (H) -192
HOU (H) -130
TB (H) -113
CO (A) -104

TUES:
WAS (H)
BOS (H)
OAK (H)
MIL (H)

MAYBE LAD - still up in the air. Already a lot of series but does kershaw lose at home?

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