Beat the sweep system

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Beat the sweep system
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/12/2017 12:56:23 PM
I've been doing this the last two weeks with really good success. Is it sustainable? Been taking mostly home teams, but did take CLE as my lone away team to "beat the sweep". IE, lose game 1, double plus 100 game two. Win - Bet is over; Lose take losses +100 again.

Last week/series: 

TB (H) - Took 3 games, up to risk 888 Gm 3- Win 100
BAL (H) - Won 100 GM 1
CLE (A) - Won 100 GM 2 - risked 340
OAK (H) - Won 100 GM 1
NYM (H) - Won 100 GM 1
LAD (H) - Won 100 GM1
CO (H) - Won 120 GM 1
CHW (H) - Lost 100 - Lost game 1 at +105, rained out GM2, no play on 2 game series
HOU (H) Won 100 GM 1
ARI (H) Won 100 GM 2 - risked 270
MIL (H) Won 110 GM 1


To Bet:
.700 winning percentage total
NO 2 game series. Only 3+

I'm keeping track via Excel, will make it a googledoc to share. Anyone have success in a system like this? Obviously a few home teams getting swept in a row puts me in the hole. Of all the teams I bet on the last 2 weeks only the Mets, Phillies and Rangers have been swept at home.
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/12/2017 1:00:33 PM
Oops, the top of my "to bet" didn't show up.
Home Record >.500
OR
Away Record < .500 (don't overvalue)

Home team overall record >.400

Win the game, no more bets for that series

USE CAUTION with teams 8-2;2-8 last 10 games; or teams with +.700 record

NO 2 game series. Just 3+


betFfun PM betFfun
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Posted: 5/12/2017 1:02:01 PM
Nice record! So, what is your today play????
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/12/2017 1:04:44 PM
Well yesterday lost NYY and  LAA - so taking them at risking 210 and 280 respectively. Won 100 on ARI last night.

Pending series tonght are:

WAS (H)
-179
CLE (H)
BOS (H)
TX (H)
MIL (H)
CHW (H)
STL (H)
CO (H)
Irish7878 PM Irish7878
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Posted: 5/12/2017 1:09:11 PM
Didn't Cubs get swept by NYY?
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/12/2017 1:13:14 PM
I didn't take the cubs.The little "w" means white sox . But yes i lost that series. Stupid rain.
SPIDERWEBB PM SPIDERWEBB
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Posted: 5/12/2017 1:18:14 PM
Colorado won yesterday.  They play dodgers
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/12/2017 1:26:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SPIDERWEBB:

Colorado won yesterday.  They play dodgers

Didn't even notice yesterday somehow! Would have been nice to already have that one in the bank haha. Thought it was a 3 game series starting tonight. Bet is already in, so riding the last 3 games out. 
Dzzy PM Dzzy
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Posted: 5/12/2017 1:38:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Big_Tone21:

I've been doing this the last two weeks with really good success. Is it sustainable? Been taking mostly home teams, but did take CLE as my lone away team to "beat the sweep". IE, lose game 1, double plus 100 game two. Win - Bet is over; Lose take losses +100 again.

Last week/series: 

TB (H) - Took 3 games, up to risk 888 Gm 3- Win 100
BAL (H) - Won 100 GM 1
CLE (A) - Won 100 GM 2 - risked 340
OAK (H) - Won 100 GM 1
NYM (H) - Won 100 GM 1
LAD (H) - Won 100 GM1
CO (H) - Won 120 GM 1
CHW (H) - Lost 100 - Lost game 1 at +105, rained out GM2, no play on 2 game series
HOU (H) Won 100 GM 1
ARI (H) Won 100 GM 2 - risked 270
MIL (H) Won 110 GM 1


To Bet:
.700 winning percentage total
NO 2 game series. Only 3+

I'm keeping track via Excel, will make it a googledoc to share. Anyone have success in a system like this? Obviously a few home teams getting swept in a row puts me in the hole. Of all the teams I bet on the last 2 weeks only the Mets, Phillies and Rangers have been swept at home.

Can you share the excel link?
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/12/2017 1:49:27 PM
Working on getting it on my googledocs, at work now. 
Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/12/2017 2:00:10 PM
No 4-games series (I.E. COL/LAD) and with "no action" specified for the starting pitchers??
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Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/12/2017 2:20:28 PM
Well just initially didn't want a 2 game series... Realistically it's harder to sweep a 4 gamer, but not sure i want to be laying at minimum 9-1 for the 4th game. Haven't done a ton of research, just been going with what's been working. Any and all insight is welcome. 
MrUnderdog PM MrUnderdog
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Posted: 5/12/2017 2:26:45 PM
Teams get swept more often than you think..
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/12/2017 3:27:07 PM
My numbers for the past few years say differently about home teams with the criteria in my OP. It's cool though. We'll see how it all turns out. 
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/15/2017 8:41:03 AM
Productive weekend. All 11 series cashed! 

AZ, TX, MIL all won in Gm 1
LAA, BOS, CHW and STL all won in Gm 2
NYY, CLE, CO - won in Gm 3

WASH bet cancelled after the rain out.

Working on getting spreadsheets live on google docs to share. Setting up early week bets this morning. 

diondimucci PM diondimucci
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Posted: 5/15/2017 9:32:53 AM
Yesterday there 6 sweep situations and all 6 home teams won.  Miami and Cleveland avoid the sweep and Texas Toronto Milwaukee Kansas city competed sweeps
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/15/2017 9:35:44 AM
Was getting nervous... had about 1500 in play to win the last 300.
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/15/2017 10:55:28 AM
2 Full series: +2400 (100 per series) 24-0

Early week series:

CLE (H)
-146
ARI (H)
LAA (H)
SEA (H)
MIL (A)
SF (H)
Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/15/2017 2:46:16 PM
Locked them in at :

CLE -143
LAA -176
SF +130
MIL -105
ARI -114
SEA -117

I do like Toronto at home, but they are splitting a 4 game series home and home, so can't take the chance. 
hart31 PM hart31
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Posted: 5/15/2017 4:22:31 PM
Why no miami play at home
And Toronto at home ?

You play 100 each team at home game 1
If they loose you play the same team +200 in game 2 ?
Thks
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hart31 PM hart31
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Posted: 5/15/2017 4:22:49 PM
Why no miami play at home
And Toronto at home ?

You play 100 each team at home game 1
If they loose you play the same team +200 in game 2 ?
Thks
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hart31 PM hart31
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Posted: 5/15/2017 4:22:49 PM
Why no miami play at home
And Toronto at home ?

You play 100 each team at home game 1
If they loose you play the same team +200 in game 2 ?
Thks
Posted using a mobile device.
hart31 PM hart31
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Posted: 5/15/2017 4:22:49 PM
Why no miami play at home
And Toronto at home ?

You play 100 each team at home game 1
If they loose you play the same team +200 in game 2 ?
Thks
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Boston_Brad PM Boston_Brad
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Posted: 5/15/2017 4:26:22 PM
Thanks for posting each of the last two weeks. Please keep it going! I'm on MIL/ARI/TOR/SEA/HOU

If staying away from 2-8 teams, the MIL over SD bet would pretty much qualify, w/MIL being 7-3 over L10 but their bats are too hot to pass.

Also, I just cannot bet against Archer. BOL on the CLE pick. I'm going to hold off for the series bets tomorrow, BAL/WASH/NYY/TEX and possibly the Cubs too.
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Big_Tone21 PM Big_Tone21
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Posted: 5/15/2017 4:46:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hart31:

Why no miami play at home
And Toronto at home ?

You play 100 each team at home game 1
If they loose you play the same team +200 in game 2 ?
Thks

Miami sub .400 team who is 6-11 at home... Also if they lose tonight they face Keuchel and McCullers to try to save the sweep. Not betting against those guys at this point.

Yes, if i bet on a team that's say -150, if i lose i need to bet 150 + 100 plus the juice. So 250 +whatever the odds are. 

No Toronto at home because it's only a 2 game series. One of my rules from the original post 
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