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MLB regular season win total

Forum: MLB Betting
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: MLB regular season win total
mootz748 PM mootz748
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Posted: 3/13/2017 7:31:56 PM
looking for a strong opinion on an MLB future... right now I'm leaning towards going under MIN 74.5 wins... they look weak . 
Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 3/14/2017 4:36:55 PM
Wait for the Czar of MLB totals to release his annual play. He has hit something like 10 out of 11. I fail to remember his ID, but he should be putting it out in the next two weeks.

GL
seladones89 PM seladones89
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Posted: 3/14/2017 8:51:53 PM
I have one that I will be hammering unfortunately cant say who until after I drop the hammer
Eprince PM Eprince
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Posted: 3/15/2017 1:13:09 AM
Well this thread has been really helpful thus far eh? 
baroid16 PM baroid16
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Posted: 3/15/2017 7:34:42 PM
Yankees Under, Pirates Under, Twins Under, Diamondbacks Over, Cardinals Over, Rays Under, Marlins Over, Mets Under.

These are my strongest plays. When I see someone’s picks I like to know why someone sided the way they did instead of just seeing the picks and if you care I gave my reasonings for each pick below. Along with some leans and a write up of my team the Cleveland Indians and why I would side with either the Over or the Under with them.

New York Yankees. U 83 -115
I think this number is inflated due to the national popularity of the Yanks. I do not think this team will be horrible and I like the young lineup but even with the good bullpen I do not think it’s enough to make up for the starting rotation. I think next year is the year to buy the over on this team but for 2017 Im seeing 78-80 wins.

Pittsburgh Pirates U 83 Even
This has a lot to do with value getting even money on the under. Last year this team made the 4th most errors (3rd most fielding) and they were 20th in defensive runs saved and 26th in UZR. Moving Marte to center will help but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to move those numbers a ton. Tony Watson is great and did a good job of taking over after Melancon was delt last year but a guy with just 20 career saves for a full season is risky. I like the lineup but the starting staff has too many questions for me to get this team to 84 wins. Only worry is with the bottomfeeding Reds and Brewers and if the Cubs take just 5-6 games back this year it could push the Pirates to the number. But for even or plus money I have them at 78-84. 

Minnesota Twins U 74.5 -115
This is pretty simple for me. This rotation is just inexperienced and the growing pains are showing in the win column. The lineup is decent but also young for the most part and the defense is just not good. I think this number is based off of the White Sox being sellers along with the seasons the Tigers and Royals had in 2016. I think the Tigers have one more run in them to push the Indians for all they have in 17 and while the Royals aren’t the Royals from those WS appearances,  last year had a lot to do with injuries and if they are healthy are at worst a .500 team. The Twins just arent ready to push .500 and I fully expect them to battle the Sox for the basement. 70-92

Arizona Diamondbacks O 78.5 -110
I’ll just start by saying I was on the over with this club last year and we all know how that turned out. I don’t think we’ll ever see 2015 Greinke again but I don’t expect the 2016 version either. He will have some positive regression and is a great bounceback candidate. The news out of camp that Aj Pollock might have a groin issue is concerning but he does say its not a serious issue. Id wait on more confirmation before going over with this team. I don’t really like spring training stats too much and while an ERA over 9 is not good I have read Shelby Miller has consistantly been in the mid to upper 90s. Those two along with the addition of Walker who’s stuff I like a lot could end up an underrated top 3 in a rotation. Everyone loves the Rockies this year with that lineup but Im going to side with the Diamondbacks bouncing back to around .500. 80-82.

St Louis Cardinals O 84.5 -120
Not a fan of the juice on this one but it’s a pretty simple pick for me. If Im right about the under for the Pirates and the Brewers and Reds are as terrible as everyone expects along with slight regression from the Cubs, someone else in this division has to win. I see the Cubs with 98 wins and the Brewers and Reds barely hitting 70 with the Pirates around 78. Add in Cardinal’s devil magic and 85 wins is all but certain.

Tampa Bay Rays U 78 -115
A lot of people are high on this team this year but I will not be one. The East is still quietly a juggernaut and I expect the Jays and Red Sox to be 85+ with the O’s and Yanks around 80 so there just arent enough wins to go around for the Rays to top this number. The pitching staff has potential but until I see a step forward in ability and health I can’t really trust them 1-5, even though I expect positive ERA regression from Archer. Most, always love this team to be the cinderella but really since Maddon left they haven’t gotten over .500. I expect them to be better than 68 but not the 80 from two years ago so I’ll split the difference at 74-88.

Miami Marlins Over 76.5 even
I like the value here. This is a good lineup with a great bullpen and the Marlins should bring a top rated defense. Biggest question is will all of that be enough to makeup for this starting rotation? I think its enough to push this club toward .500 at least. The starters bring risk as does the health of Stanton but I like this team as a whole. I have them at 79-83.

New York Mets U 88.5 (+110)
This one will not be popular but a lot of it has to do with the value of plus money. Could this team take the division with the promise of these young starters, a stellar bullpen and a 35/110 season from Cespedes and ride it all to 94 wins and the division? Definitely. But with plus money there are too many question marks for this team for me to get them to 89 wins. The starting pitching is great but the health worries me a ton. I don’t really like the lineup too much and even with a + bullpen they do not play good defense. I already like the Marlins over total and I lean with the Braves over 74 add that to this still being the National’s division and a Phillies team that could be sneaky good and I have the Mets at 84-78.




baroid16 PM baroid16
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Posted: 3/15/2017 7:41:41 PM
Leans Listed most confident to least but will not be plays.

Mariners O 85.5
Angels U 79.5
Orioles O 81
Padres U 66.5
Reds U 70.5
Braves O 74.5
Tigers O 84


Cleveland Indians 93.5

This is my team and I always think the people that know their teams have the best insight to how they might do throughout a season. 93.5 is just too high for me but I give reasons why Id take either side.
Why I’d bet the Over: PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING and some guy named Edwin. The starting staff is electric. “When all healthy” I would put them up against any staff in the league. They can eat innings and they all strikeout a ton of batters with great wiff rates. Everyone pointed to the signing of Encarnacion this year (which I did love obviously) but the front office bringing in Boone Logan was almost just as exciting for me. Miller, Allen and Shaw threw so many innings last year that we really needed another lefty option out of the pen and Logan gives Tito so much flexibility at the back end with how he can use all four guys (preferabbly not Shaw) now. Adding Edwin with the possibility of Michael Brantley coming back and another year of Francisco Lindor growth and this lineup could rival Boston for tops in the leauge. Sometimes their outfield defense makes me cringe but collectively they were still top 10 in the AL last year. That’s always a wildcard but they wont be terrible. Combine the good with a team that believes in each other and could carry momentum from a game 7 defeit in the WS just like their division rival Royals did 2 years ago and 94 wins is certainly possible.

Why I like the Under: This is probably my stronger play. As I said above the pitching is great but I cant count on Carrasco’s health right now (elbow inflamation missing one spring start) and I cant count on Salazar’s for 162 games either. I feel to get to 94 wins this team needs Salazar to finally start 33 games and throw 190 and I just don’t see it. Kipnis is missing opening day with a shoulder strain and while reports are pleasant about Michael Brantley (he doubled in a minor league game today 3/15) I wont believe that guy is healthy until I see him in the lineup for 20 straight games. Jose Ramriez had an insane BABIP last year and that will regress. He might be good again but the guy was just a utility bench player 2 seasons ago. Naquin should regress and if Chisenhall hits .300 again even in a platoon role I’ll be surprised. Kluber threw so many innings last year along with Miller, Allen and Tomlin, and it makes you wonder if he’ll feel those innings in 2017. So much went right for this club in 2016 and its just hard to repeat all of that two years in a row. I think this team will be very good but I still side with the under thinking aroun 89-90 wins.  

seladones89 PM seladones89
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Posted: 3/17/2017 1:19:50 PM
I locked in my braves over 73.5 -140
Posted using a mobile device.
Sidehatch PM Sidehatch
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Posted: 3/19/2017 6:19:32 PM
I'll post my division predictions, and then overunder thoughts on every single team.
Sidehatch PM Sidehatch
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Posted: 3/19/2017 6:20:54 PM
NL WEST
1. Dodgers
2. Giants
3. Diamondbacks
4. Rockies
5. Padres

NL EAST
1. Nationals
2. Mets
3. Marlins
4. Braves
5. Phillies

NL CENTRAL
1. Cubs
2. Pirates
3. Cardinals
4. Brewers
5. Reds

AL WEST
1. Rangers
2. Mariners
3. Astros
4. Angels
5. A’s

AL CENTRAL
1. Indians
2. Tigers
3. Royals
4. Twins
5. White Sox

AL EAST
1. Red Sox
2. Orioles
3. Blue Jays
4. Yankees
5. Rays

Sidehatch PM Sidehatch
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Posted: 3/19/2017 6:22:18 PM
OVERUNDER PREDICTIONS. MY FAVORITES ARE IN BOLD.

Arizona 77.5 UNDER, I like them maxing out at about 75 wins. At best, this is a .500 team, and I don’t think they’ll be at their best with that bullpen.

Atlanta 74.5. UNDER. I like this roster, it’s a fun team to watch with a fun video game roster. That being said, they have to play a ton of games against the Nationals, Mets, and Marlins, all of whom will take their toll.

Baltimore 80.5 OVER. I love their bullpen, and their starting pitching is pretty solid. Their offensive additions will also help, although I’m not a fan of Schoop. I think they finish in second place.

Boston 92.5. OVER. As long as they take care of Price, I like the over for this team. Every position is strong.

Chicago Cubs 96.5. OVER. I would almost never say over on a number this high, but they should run all over their division. The Cardinals are having a down year, and the Reds and Brewers stink.

Chicago White Sox 68.5. UNDER. I like some of their young players, but the loss of Sale just made a bad team worse. The clubhouse complaints are really illuminating about how this team is very poorly managed.

Cincinnati Reds 69.5 UNDER. Their starting pitching is fubar. The relievers they have are good, but not great depth there.

Cleveland Indians 93.5 UNDER. The plethora of injuries will make the Tigers competitive, and keep them from hitting a huge win total.

Colorado Rockies 80.5 UNDER. Their starting pitching is a tire fire. I mean, horrible. I like everything about this team, except their starting pitchers. And keep in mind, they just lost Bettis as he was rediagnosed with cancer, which is too bad.

Detroit Tigers 82.5 OVER. I really like this team’s combo of veteran talent with some young stars. I think they make a strong playoff push, which means playing above .500.

Houston 91.5 UNDER. I like this team a lot, and try to be optimistic about them, but their SP isn’t as proven, their bullpen has question marks, and they lack hitting at the 1B position.

KC Royals 75.5 LEAN OVER????. The toughest team for me to predict. They shipped off most of their pitchers over the years, but the guys they have left are pretty good. I think they finish in the middle of this division.

Los Angeles Angels 79.5 UNDER. This is an improving team with young starting pitching to be optimistic about, but the Rangers, Mariners, and Astros will eat away at that win total and keep them under .500.

Los Angeles Dodgers 94.5 UNDER. I’m a Dodgers fan for life, but their hitting simply isn’t there. Their division rivals will play them tough. I still think they take the division, but 90-93 wins is most probable.

Miami Marlins 76.5. OVER. Losing Fernandez might make the difference on this bet. If he was still alive, I’d say over and feel great about it. I love their lineup and bullpen, very strong team. I find myself wanting to start a lot of sentences with the word “if” when I talk about this team and their SPs.

Milwaukee 69.5. UNDER. This team’s starting and relief pitching is so bad, they may be the first team to give up 100 runs.

Minnesota Twins 74.5. UNDER. This team is definitely improving, but the Indians, Tigers, and Royals will reduce that win total, especially with some of that questionable starting pitching. Their lineup and bullpen are bright spots though.

New York Mets 87.5. OVER. Their pitching will be like it was two years ago, and they have the bats to back it up. I have a long history of rooting against the Mets, but this team is effin good.

New York Yankees 82.5 UNDER. I can’t decide if they will win more than the Blue Jays. I am optimistic about Severino, and obviously the health of the other old guys will dictate the direction of this team. If they are healthy, they could give Toronto a run for their money. However, they won’t be. Father Time is undefeated, and will take his share of injuries this season.

Oakland Athletics 73.5 UNDER. I’m skeptical of their starting pitching and ability to score runs. I’d be surprised if they don’t finish last in the division.

Philadelphia Phillies 73.5. UNDER. Their pitching is much-improved and on a genral upward trend, but this team can’t hit. Simple as that.

Pittsburgh Pirates 83 OVER. Ray Searage’s history as a pitching guru will definitely come in handy this year. This team’s lineup is solid, too.

St. Louis Cardinals 83.5 UNDER. This team has injury problems that hurt their pitching depth. Matt Carpenter also isn’t right either. I think this will be their worst season in a while.

San Diego Padres 66.5 OVER. The Padres will lose a ton of games this year, but I don’t see how you can go under 66.5. They should be a little better than last season, and last season they were over this.

San Francisco Giants 88.5 UNDER. Great starting pitching, but their hitting just disappears sometimes for weeks at a time. I am not as confident in this pick as I am the others

Seattle Mariners 85.5 OVER. I’m not very confident in this over. I wish they would have gotten more hitting at 1B. But their pitching looks great. I think they’ll score enough runs to beat this number.

Tampa Bay Rays 78.5 UNDER. In a division with great teams, they could rename the Rays “Trade Partner for Playoff Teams.” They will be sellers at the trade deadline. If Archer exceeds expectations, he’ll be their biggest piece to move. They tried to move him last season. They need to improve their starting and relief pitching, a lot of busters on that part of the roster.

Texas Rangers 85.5. OVER. Love this team’s power and their bullpen improved a lot last year when they figured out what they had in Matt Bush. Their starting pitching could be better, but it’s good enough to win the division.

Toronto Blue Jays 85.5 OVER. I wish they had better starting and relief pitching, but I still love their hitting. Losing Encarnacion hurts a bit, but was softened by the addition of a new left-handed bat in Morales.

Washington Nationals 90.5 OVER. Solid starting pitching, solid hitting. Their biggest question mark is closer, and that won’t result in too many losses.

Sidehatch PM Sidehatch
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Posted: 3/19/2017 6:24:27 PM
In hindsight, maybe I would put the Cleveland Indians behind Detroit Tigers. I'm optimistic on the Tigers, and Cleveland may not have their #2 starter in Carrasco, a terrific sinkerball pitcher.
BWS77 PM BWS77
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Posted: 3/19/2017 7:09:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by baroid16:

Leans Listed most confident to least but will not be plays.

Mariners O 85.5
Angels U 79.5
Orioles O 81
Padres U 66.5
Reds U 70.5
Braves O 74.5
Tigers O 84


Cleveland Indians 93.5

This is my team and I always think the people that know their teams have the best insight to how they might do throughout a season. 93.5 is just too high for me but I give reasons why Id take either side.
Why I’d bet the Over: PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING and some guy named Edwin. The starting staff is electric. “When all healthy” I would put them up against any staff in the league. They can eat innings and they all strikeout a ton of batters with great wiff rates. Everyone pointed to the signing of Encarnacion this year (which I did love obviously) but the front office bringing in Boone Logan was almost just as exciting for me. Miller, Allen and Shaw threw so many innings last year that we really needed another lefty option out of the pen and Logan gives Tito so much flexibility at the back end with how he can use all four guys (preferabbly not Shaw) now. Adding Edwin with the possibility of Michael Brantley coming back and another year of Francisco Lindor growth and this lineup could rival Boston for tops in the leauge. Sometimes their outfield defense makes me cringe but collectively they were still top 10 in the AL last year. That’s always a wildcard but they wont be terrible. Combine the good with a team that believes in each other and could carry momentum from a game 7 defeit in the WS just like their division rival Royals did 2 years ago and 94 wins is certainly possible.

Why I like the Under: This is probably my stronger play. As I said above the pitching is great but I cant count on Carrasco’s health right now (elbow inflamation missing one spring start) and I cant count on Salazar’s for 162 games either. I feel to get to 94 wins this team needs Salazar to finally start 33 games and throw 190 and I just don’t see it. Kipnis is missing opening day with a shoulder strain and while reports are pleasant about Michael Brantley (he doubled in a minor league game today 3/15) I wont believe that guy is healthy until I see him in the lineup for 20 straight games. Jose Ramriez had an insane BABIP last year and that will regress. He might be good again but the guy was just a utility bench player 2 seasons ago. Naquin should regress and if Chisenhall hits .300 again even in a platoon role I’ll be surprised. Kluber threw so many innings last year along with Miller, Allen and Tomlin, and it makes you wonder if he’ll feel those innings in 2017. So much went right for this club in 2016 and its just hard to repeat all of that two years in a row. I think this team will be very good but I still side with the under thinking aroun 89-90 wins.  



I'm leaning towards playing the Indians Under...    The pitchers ate up a lot of high pressure innings last season all the way through the 10th inning of Game 7.   I think the Royals bouncing back after losing in Game 7 of 2014 and getting back to the Series in 15 was an anomaly.  The main things holding back right now is how much they dominated the division last year... including the insane record against Detroit.   Minnesota, CWS, KC all are the same or worse than last year.   I think there has to be some regression in the record against Detroit.   The Indians had a poor record against winning teams last year until it mattered.   Another factor is health... but it goes both ways for me.   Obviously they have some issues now, but I could see someone getting hurt mid season and it actually helping the Tribe if Mejia or Zimmer gets regular playing time replacing an injured starter.   I'm going to wait until the season is closer before deciding.
MR TINGLES PM MR TINGLES
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Posted: 3/20/2017 1:14:35 PM

Using Sidehatch's totals the most obvious t me are

CUBS OVER 96.5

Easily surpassed that last yr, rest of the division is extremely weak and Wade Davis will only help


CINCY UNDER 69.5

SAN DIEGO UNDER 66.5

Hard not to see those 2 not losing 100 games each which means the most they can win is 62

 ST LOUIS OVER 83.5..Beacause they always do and side from Cubs rest of division is weak

KC OVER 75.5

MINNY UNDER 74.5

Are you telling me Kc is only 1 game better than Minnesota? I will take that bet all day long

GOOD LUCK MOOTZ748

Broncodevil PM Broncodevil
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Posted: 3/21/2017 11:01:18 AM
I like to read all the write-ups I can find on Over Under.

I narrow it down to 3-4 teams.

After I pick the teams, I like to check each teams schedule....

We obviously know each teams division opponents..

For example......for the Indians.......

They play 

AZ - 3

CIN - 4

COL - 4

LAD - 3  at home

SD - 3

SF -2


I'd say a relatively easy interleague schedule for the Indians.

This info might help backup your conclusions.


Sidehatch PM Sidehatch
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Posted: 3/24/2017 1:02:20 AM
Looks like a lot of people are taking the under on the Angels 79.5, not just me. Those under bets are painstaking but fun.
braves5795 PM braves5795
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Posted: 3/31/2017 1:51:02 PM
most people pounding the braves over
Sidehatch PM Sidehatch
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Posted: 4/1/2017 2:07:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by braves5795:

most people pounding the braves over
I will fade that. There are three better teams than them in the East! 

DanielStacks PM DanielStacks
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Posted: 4/1/2017 2:19:38 AM
Baltimore O's Over Is Free money Every year this team is underestimated Also tailing Ragingstorm Az D backs Over 
Sidehatch PM Sidehatch
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Posted: 4/1/2017 6:02:54 PM
After reviewing for injuries, here are the bets I went with:
Big bet: Angels - under 79.5

Other under bets:
Arizona 77.5 
Rockies 80.5
Houston 91.5
Athletics 73.5
Rays 78.5

Over bets:
Nationals 91.5
Rangers 85.5
Padres 66.5
Tigers 82.5

Bets I got scared off of, and why:
  • Orioles. I was bullish on the over of 80.5. However, Tillman's shoulder is simply not getting better. When shoulders don't improve, it's because there's a problem. It's not magically going to go away, he has a rotator cuff problem. I'll bet they try to bring him back midseason, and he will not pitch well. Subtract their best pitcher in a great-hitting division and a competitive division overall, and it's not worth the risk. 
  • Cubs. I was bullish on the over of 96.5. That's simply a high number. I'd rather avoid that and put my money on another team's under.
  • Cardinals. I was bullish on the 83.5 under. However, the injuries they had aren't as concerning now, and their starting 5 is pretty solid, as is their lineup. Their bullpen is risky, but still has talent. Not worth the risk.
  • Pirates. I was bullish on the over of 83. With the Cardinals improving in my eyes, that takes away a few wins from the Pirates. The Cubs are incredible. The Pirates could still hit that over, but why run the risk when I could bet more on other bets I'm more confident in?
Two divisional winner bets:
  • Tigers to win the division at 6.35 to 1 odds. 
  • Rangers to win the division at 3.5 to 1 odds. 
  • Both are talented teams that can hit the cover off the ball. From top to bottom, both teams can surprise. I don't place these bets unless I'm getting good ROI on that money, so that's why I shyed away from the Nationals, Cubs, etc.



Sidehatch PM Sidehatch
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Posted: 5/30/2017 1:49:02 AM
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