Marcus Stroman. This man has only given up an average of 2 runs over his past 10 outings. He's come into a zone as a late.
Trevor Bauer. Over the past six outings, Bauer has given up an average of 5 runs per game. He's coming off an injury to his finger which, no doubt, cannot help his cause. Before this season, Bauer was known for his erratic inconsistency on the mound.
Factor Two: Revenge Edge.
Games one and two were an absolute embarrassment to the Blue Jays. The most dangerous offensive team in baseball scored ONE run in two games. I realize teams can slump in baseball and very often that slump lasts for a while during the regular season, but the playoffs have to much energy to see a deep hitting team like the Blue Jays continue at that pace. I absolutely see an angry Blue Jays team come out today before a home crowd and lay the wood like crazy in innings 1-3. The only thing that could save the Indians here, in my opinion, is a good manager in Francona. I could see Francona stopping the bleeding before two runs even come in (and change to a reliever quickly).
Factor Three: My Personal Gut. (as a Tribe Follower)
I'd absolutely LOVE to see my Tribe pull out a win tonight in Toronto. But, I just don't see it happening. I see no way Bauer outmans Stroman on the road. This Toronto fan base and atmosphere is sick. It's crazy and loud, and this Blue Jays team will be juiced up major with energy.
Blue Jays win by 2+ runs. I'd lay a small play on the TOR -1.5 and play heavier on Blue Jays ML.
I do think the Indians have a decent shot at Game 4, but tonight belongs to Toronto.
Marcus Stroman. This man has only given up an average of 2 runs over his past 10 outings. He's come into a zone as a late.
Trevor Bauer. Over the past six outings, Bauer has given up an average of 5 runs per game. He's coming off an injury to his finger which, no doubt, cannot help his cause. Before this season, Bauer was known for his erratic inconsistency on the mound.
Factor Two: Revenge Edge.
Games one and two were an absolute embarrassment to the Blue Jays. The most dangerous offensive team in baseball scored ONE run in two games. I realize teams can slump in baseball and very often that slump lasts for a while during the regular season, but the playoffs have to much energy to see a deep hitting team like the Blue Jays continue at that pace. I absolutely see an angry Blue Jays team come out today before a home crowd and lay the wood like crazy in innings 1-3. The only thing that could save the Indians here, in my opinion, is a good manager in Francona. I could see Francona stopping the bleeding before two runs even come in (and change to a reliever quickly).
Factor Three: My Personal Gut. (as a Tribe Follower)
I'd absolutely LOVE to see my Tribe pull out a win tonight in Toronto. But, I just don't see it happening. I see no way Bauer outmans Stroman on the road. This Toronto fan base and atmosphere is sick. It's crazy and loud, and this Blue Jays team will be juiced up major with energy.
Blue Jays win by 2+ runs. I'd lay a small play on the TOR -1.5 and play heavier on Blue Jays ML.
I do think the Indians have a decent shot at Game 4, but tonight belongs to Toronto.
I think the way this line is set at around -180, vegas agrees with you. They do not want to pay out for an Indians win. That being said, anything can happen. Jays going down 0-3 is a real possibility, but if vegas thinks they can win today, that's good enough for me.
I think the way this line is set at around -180, vegas agrees with you. They do not want to pay out for an Indians win. That being said, anything can happen. Jays going down 0-3 is a real possibility, but if vegas thinks they can win today, that's good enough for me.
I see it two ways. I think Vegas would make more by Cleveland winning for sure.
BUT ... I think Vegas knows this is a definite win for Toronto and putting out a -220 or -250 line would give more Toronto followers more confidence. A -175 or -180 line pulls back the reigns a little on Toronto followers throwing the bank on it.
Anything can happen, of course. I just can't see the Blue Jays losing today.
I see it two ways. I think Vegas would make more by Cleveland winning for sure.
BUT ... I think Vegas knows this is a definite win for Toronto and putting out a -220 or -250 line would give more Toronto followers more confidence. A -175 or -180 line pulls back the reigns a little on Toronto followers throwing the bank on it.
Anything can happen, of course. I just can't see the Blue Jays losing today.
I see it two ways. I think Vegas would make more by Cleveland winning for sure. BUT ... I think Vegas knows this is a definite win for Toronto and putting out a -220 or -250 line would give more Toronto followers more confidence. A -175 or -180 line pulls back the reigns a little on Toronto followers throwing the bank on it. Anything can happen, of course. I just can't see the Blue Jays losing today.
No absolutes in handicapping... To me it's always just a game of percentages. At -175 I don't need to be as confident as I would at -220
I think the current line is inflated based the Indians actual chances tonight. To me anything over +140 is value
I see it two ways. I think Vegas would make more by Cleveland winning for sure. BUT ... I think Vegas knows this is a definite win for Toronto and putting out a -220 or -250 line would give more Toronto followers more confidence. A -175 or -180 line pulls back the reigns a little on Toronto followers throwing the bank on it. Anything can happen, of course. I just can't see the Blue Jays losing today.
No absolutes in handicapping... To me it's always just a game of percentages. At -175 I don't need to be as confident as I would at -220
I think the current line is inflated based the Indians actual chances tonight. To me anything over +140 is value
I don't like either side in this one. Value pick for the side this game is absolutely Indians, but they are not in a very good spot tonight going on the road with Bauer who has looked rather shaky in his recent starts. Jays will likely beat them in a closely contested game 3. That being siad, the -180 or whatever the line closes at tonight is not very good value at all on Stroman who I do credit with a somewhat clutch performance against Baltimore last start in the wild card but that was not a good spot for Os either who still made it a very close game until EE's walk off 3 run bomb in the bottom of the 9th.. In light of that anyone that wants to sacrifice that much value in a game where there is not a clear winner and it seems the books are trying to pressure people into awarding Cleveland a spot in the world series which is what epsn and everyone wants to see too. That is the reason why I can't pick a side in this one, Toronto SHOULD win but risking a -180 for this game I don't see the sense in, I am however inclined to thinking the over will far exceed 8.5, but we will see what happens!
Should be a fun game to watch, check in on ESPN for the commercials and watch as the Arizona Cardinals lay a convincing beat down on everyone's favorite qb: Ryan Fitzpatrick and the New York Jets.
Cheers to an entertaining night of action everyone
I don't like either side in this one. Value pick for the side this game is absolutely Indians, but they are not in a very good spot tonight going on the road with Bauer who has looked rather shaky in his recent starts. Jays will likely beat them in a closely contested game 3. That being siad, the -180 or whatever the line closes at tonight is not very good value at all on Stroman who I do credit with a somewhat clutch performance against Baltimore last start in the wild card but that was not a good spot for Os either who still made it a very close game until EE's walk off 3 run bomb in the bottom of the 9th.. In light of that anyone that wants to sacrifice that much value in a game where there is not a clear winner and it seems the books are trying to pressure people into awarding Cleveland a spot in the world series which is what epsn and everyone wants to see too. That is the reason why I can't pick a side in this one, Toronto SHOULD win but risking a -180 for this game I don't see the sense in, I am however inclined to thinking the over will far exceed 8.5, but we will see what happens!
Should be a fun game to watch, check in on ESPN for the commercials and watch as the Arizona Cardinals lay a convincing beat down on everyone's favorite qb: Ryan Fitzpatrick and the New York Jets.
Cheers to an entertaining night of action everyone
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